消费，就业和通货膨胀全面增强。 为什么美国债券收益率仍然出乎意料地下降？ _东方财富网

原标题：消费，就业和通货膨胀都在增强，为什么美国国债收益率仍然意外下降？

概括

[ConsumptionemploymentandinflationarestrengtheningacrosstheboardWhyareUSTreasuryyieldsstillunexpectedlyfalling?】The10-yearUSTreasuryyieldunexpectedlyjumpedonThursday(April15)hittingafive-weeklowsincemid-MarchwhichimmediatelypushedtheUSS&P500IndextotakeadvantageoftheeastwindtoreachanewrecordhighHoweverthedatareleasedthisweekshowedthattheUSeconomycontinuestoperformstronglyandthetrendofrisinginflationhasalsoappearedThishasmadetheplungeinUSbondyieldsappeartobequiteconfusingforinvestmentatfirstglance(Huitongcom)

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield unexpectedly jumped on Thursday (April 15), reaching a five-week low since mid-March, which immediately pushed the US S&P 500 Index to take advantage of the east wind to reach a new record high. However, the data released this week showed that the U.S. economy continues to perform strongly, and the trend of rising inflation has also appeared. This has made the plunge in U.S. bond yields appear to be quite confusing for investment at first glance.

Data released on Thursday showed that the “horror data” of retail sales in March recorded a strong increase of more than 10%. At the same time, the number of initial jobless claims fell further from 576,000 last week, which is a new low level in more than a year since the full outbreak of the epidemic. Previously, the US consumer price index in March exceeded expectations and rose 2.6% year-on-year. Since the beginning of this year, the key kinetic energy that has pushed U.S. bond yields higher has been the improvement of the U.S. economy and the expectation of rising inflation. But at the moment, under the background of the same data trends in the above two aspects, the U.S. Treasury yields have unexpectedly dropped sharply, which cannot be explained by conventional market logic.

　　marketing strategyThe explanation given by the teacher is that althoughU.S. economic dataThe performance is strong, but many traders tend to think that this is the peak of economic recovery artificially piled up by the previous fiscal stimulus measures. After the first quarter recorded an unexpected economic growth rate of 10%, the US economy began in the second half of the year. Will be gradually beaten back to the prototype. thus,MidlandReserves and global central banks are afraid to let go. This also allows short-selling treasury bond assets to still receive demand, thus curbing the bond market yields from rising further.

Generally speaking, in the context of a marked improvement in the economy,MidlandExpectations of tightening of the reserve policy and interest rate hikes will heat up, which will lead to stronger U.S. Treasury yields.But fromMidlandJudging from the wording of the recent speeches of the Reserve Bank officials, especially Chairman Powell, they are still concerned about the economic outlook, especially the uncertainty that still exists in the global epidemic. Therefore, unless inflation is indeed out of control, the Fed’s easing support will be strong in the short term. Will not decrease. This also makes the trading action of continuing to sell U.S. debt lose its footing.

butAnalystHe pointed out that the fall in U.S. bond yields is bullish for the U.S. stock market in the short term. Because once the bond market yield rises, the gap between it and the stock market investment return rate will narrow, which will promote the outflow of stock market funds. On the contrary, when the bond market yield rate is low, the stock market value investment will be relatively profitable. . This is also the reason why the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Index set new highs this week.

Previously, the trend of the US stock index has shown weakness since the beginning of the year. The key factor is that the US bond yield rose to 1.77% from the level of less than 1% a year ago. Therefore, strategists pointed out that the recent fall in U.S. bond yields against the backdrop of positive economic data is also a correction of the market’s “overcorrection” of the bond market sell-off. Since the new round of fiscal policy measures in the future is still in suspense, and the US government’s expectations of considering interest rate hikes have recently fermented and suppressed market confidence, good employment and consumption data alone cannot offset market concerns. Because these data reflect the changes that have occurred in the economic field under the stimulus of huge funds, but they do not represent the future direction. As a result, investors are again inclined to cover up U.S. debt positions on dips.

As for the future trend of U.S. bond yields, we still need to wait and see the next economic trend. Investors need to confirm whether the U.S. economic recovery is only a short-lived stimulus fund, or whether it is sustainable from the improvement of basic factors. At the same time, whether the new US federal government’s spending plan can succeed in Congress this summer is also critical.But industry analysts have pointed out that in any case, after the “growth peak” has passed, the United StatesGDPThe growth rate will begin to slow again in the third quarter. Under this situation, around 1.7% is still an ideal and reasonable benchmark US bond yield. The probability that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will break 2% during the year is still not high. This situation will continue to be bullish for the stock market.

Analysts pointed out that the near-term prospects of the U.S. and even the global economy are also hung by the progress of the new coronavirus vaccine injection, as well as the safety and effectiveness of various vaccine products.This week, previously high hopesJohnsonVaccines have also been exposed to adverse events, which also makes investors bet that the Fed will be forced to provide loose liquidity supplies for a longer period of time to deal with the impact of emergencies in the economy and epidemic conditions, so as not to be at a loss by then. This makes the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell back below 1.60% in the short term. However, under the general trend that the vaccine will eventually outperform the epidemic, the US economy is still expected to improve, and the inflation rate is indeed rising, the benchmark U.S. bond yield is expected to be supported by Totti at 1.47%. There is a stronger trend support at 1.345%.

The analyst also pointed out that in addition to the fundamental factors of the United States itself, the external market movement may also be another reason for the recent fluctuations in the bond market. Overnight, Japan’s Ministry of Finance issued a report stating that it had purchased a total of US$15 billion in overseas bonds in the week ending April 9, and its international investors believed that most of the funds went to the U.S. bond market. This is enough to have an impact on the balance of supply and demand in the bond market.

On Monday, the U.S. Treasury Department’s bid for $38 billion in 10-year new bonds yielded a yield of 1.68%, which is a 14.5 basis point premium difference with marketable bonds. This also sets the tone for the future bond market. Analysts pointed out that the room for further downside of US Treasury yields is indeed limited, but the momentum that continued to rise at the beginning of the year is also disappearing. For most of the year, the trend of range fluctuations will become the main tone.

(Source: Huitong.com)

(Editor in charge: DF532)