预期性能将提高200倍！ 当市场反复波动时，为什么钢铁库存仍在稳定增长？ （现货）_东方财富网

原始标题：预期性能将提高200倍！ 市场反复波动，为什么钢铁库存仍在稳定增长？ （附加股）

概括

[Performanceisexpectedtoincreaseupto200times!Whyaresteelstocksstillrisingsteadilywhenthemarketfluctuatesrepeatedly?(Attachedstock)OnApril15themarketcontinuedtoshrinkandadjustTheShanghaiStockExchangeIndexfellslightlyby052%andagainfellbelow3400pointstocloseat339899pointsAlthoughtheindexfellnotmuchtheperformanceofindividualstockswassluggishwithmorethan2300closeddown

On April 15, the market continued to shrink and adjust,Shanghai IndexIt fell slightly by 0.52% and fell below 3400 points again to close at 3398.99 points. Although the index fell not much, the performance of individual stocks was sluggish, with more than 2,300 closed down.

In terms of sectors, the speed of rotation has accelerated recently, with new hot spots appearing every day, such as nuclear pollution, Hainan Free Trade Zone, and digitalcurrency, Second child and other concepts, but the continuity is poor, and the funds have not formed a synergy.

The market is still in the period of turbulence after the main line ebbs. To find opportunities for Nuggets, in addition to paying close attention to the rotation of new hot spots, you can also choose strong sectors that can withstand the turbulence, such asPerformanceStrong growth of the steel sector.

Entering 2021,steel industryThe profit prospects of the company have begun to accelerate. In the disclosed quarterly report performance forecast, the performance of many steel stocks is expected to increase by more than 10 times, and the substantial increase in performance is eye-catching. Why can the steel sector, which has risen close to 40% year-to-date, move forward amidst the turbulence?

1. Overweight policies and limited supply

On the supply side, this year, under the environment of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality”, domestic policies have been proposed to reduce steel production, and many cities such as Tangshan have stepped up environmental protection and production restriction policies. The current blast furnace operating rate is significantly lower than the seasonal level, and steel supply is expected to continue to shrink.

2. Destocking and strong demand

On the demand side, the recovery of the macro economy has promoted a rapid rebound in the prosperity of domestic and foreign manufacturing industries, and the marginal demand for steel is also resonantly rising. On April 15, the World Steel Association released the latest version of the short-term (2021-2022) steel demand forecast report, predicting that the global steel demand will increase by 5.8% in 2021; the report also pointed out that the With stimulus measures, coupled with the strong performance of the construction and machinery industries, China’s steel demand will increase by 3.0% in 2021.

It is still in the spring destocking cycle: Last week, the total social inventories of the five major steel varieties and the total inventories of steel mills all fell by more than 800,000 tons.

3. Mismatch between supply and demand, increasing profits

Under the mismatch of supply and demand, steel prices have continued to rise, and domestic steel prices have risen by more than 1,000 yuan/ton. The price of steel products has risen sharply, and the steel trade market is also heating up. Some steel trade companies have doubled their orders, and some steel trade markets have even reached the highest transaction volume in history.

At present, the gross profit per ton of steel has generally rebounded to near the 2017-2018 high.The obvious gap between supply and demand has boostedsteel industryThe profit center has risen sharply, coupled with the low base in 2020, this year’s quarterly report performance of steel stocks has achieved explosive growth.

The supply side will continue to be under pressure in the future. If there is no turning point in demand,steel industryThe second quarter performance is expected to continue to grow.

Fundamentals remain strong, pay attention to the opportunity of a quarterly report

　　Industrial SecuritiesIt is believed that the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology once again declared last week to ensure a year-on-year decline in national crude steel production in 2021, and strive to achieve carbon peaks in advance during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period. The continuous restoration of steel profits is a manifestation of the impact of the carbon neutral policy on the steel industry. In the context of “carbon neutrality”, domestic steel supply is more restrictive. Recently, steel prices have risen and inventories have fallen. Considering that the release of terminal demand is accelerating, the fundamentals of the steel industry remain strong.

Kaiyuan Securities: Pay attention to the investment opportunities of individual stocks that exceeded expectations in the quarterly report. Due to the impact of the epidemic in the first quarter of 2020, the performance of most listed companies has dropped significantly. In the first quarter of 2021, due to the significant increase in bulk commodities and superimposed sales growth, the steel sector is expected to increase significantly in the first quarter.

In terms of individual stocks, comprehensiveIndustrial Securities、Zhongtai Securities, Kaiyuan Securities, etc.BrokerageRecommendations, it is recommended to pay attention to two main lines:

First, the sheet steel with the most obvious improvement in gross profit per ton of steel is mainly concernedValin Steel(000932.SZ)、Nanjing Iron and Steel Co., Ltd.(600282.SH)、Baosteel Co., Ltd.(600019.SH)；

The second is the sharp increase in the price of construction steel, and the profitability of building materials steel enterprises has improved significantly, and the main concern isFangda Special Steel(600507.SH)、Sangang Minguang(002110.SZ)。

(Source: 21st Century Business Herald)

(Editor in charge: DF545)