原标题：4,300亿个大型银行曾经下跌5％，金融股却处于低迷状态！ 出现了一个坏消息，影响有多大？
概括
[430billionbigbanksoncedived5%leadingthedownturnoffinancialstocksacrosstheboard!Howbigistheimpactoftheemergenceofabadpaper?】TodaythereisanunexpectedsituationinthemarketthatisthefinancialstocksledbyIndustrialBankcollectivelyfellAlthoughtheoveralldeclineinthefinalclosingisnotlargeitisworthyofvigilanceBecausethevaluationoffinancialstocksisnothighinfactandhasundergoneawaveofadjustmentsbefore(BrokerChina)
Today, the three major stock indexes in the A-share market all fell by more than 1% in intraday trading.The Shanghai Composite IndexIt fell to 40 points at one point. Judging from the recent situation, the market as a whole feels a bit dull. As of the close, the decline of the three major stock indexes has narrowed, but judging from the volume, the number of individual stocks, and the continuity of individual stocks, they have not yet returned to a friendly environment.
There is an unexpected situation in the market today, that isIndustrial BankThe leading financial stocks collectively fell. Although the overall decline in the final closing was not large, it is also worthy of vigilance. Because the valuation of financial stocks is not high in fact, and has undergone a wave of adjustments before.
So, why is it going to kill? Analysts believe that the State Council recently issued the “Opinions of the State Council on Further Deepening the Reform of the Budget Management System”, which involves the reorganization and liquidation clauses of local financing platforms. This may be a problem for financial institutions that hold more local debt. Bad.And overnightMidlandChu has also begun to let go and will reduce QE.
Financial stocks suddenly fell
On April 15, the Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.52%.Growth Enterprise Market IndexFell 0.49%.From the perspective of the disk structure, aquatic products, carbon neutrality, today’s headlines, etc.themeStocks pulled back collectively; non-ferrous metals made efforts in the afternoon, and vaccines, semiconductors, and liquor strengthened.
From the perspective of capital, today’s market volume can be enlarged but not significant, with a turnover of more than 660 billion yuan throughout the day. The stocks in the two cities still fell more and rose less, with a rise-fall ratio of 1773:2335.Data shows that the outflow of northbound funds narrowed in the afternoon, with a small net sales of 950 million yuan throughout the day; of whichShanghai Stock ConnectNet purchase of 504 million yuan,Shenzhen Stock ConnectNet sales were 1.454 billion yuan.Foreign capitalAnalysttoBrokerageThe Chinese reporter said,Northward capitalThe continuity of the allocation of A shares in the short term may be under pressure.
However, the most important trend in the disk today is not the above indicators, but the trend of financial stocks.430 billion market valueIndustrial BankSuddenly fell more than 5% in the morning,bankStocks are collectively under pressure.LargeInsuranceStocks also fell by more than 2% in early trading, and brokerage stocksFirst ventureThe overall downturn under the leadership of. In the afternoon, the overall decline of financial stocks has narrowed, but still underperformed the broader market.
This phenomenon is not unique to A shares. Chinese financial stocks in the Hong Kong market also performed sluggishly.Chinese capitalbankThe overall stocks weakened.
Chinese capitalInsuranceThe overall stock price fell,China Pacific InsuranceA drop of more than 2%.
Some analysts believe that overnightBank of ChinaBeSocial securityfundThe reduction in holdings may be the main reason for the decline in financial stocks. However, this may not be the case. Variables that are not conducive to the valuation of financial stocks have appeared in the market.
A neglected negative
On April 13, the Chinese government website suddenly released the “Opinions of the State Council on Further Deepening the Reform of the Budget Management System.” The document pointed out that at present and for a period in the future, the finance is in a state of tight balance, and the contradiction between revenue and expenditure is more prominent. In addition, there is insufficient coordination in budget management, the government has not yet firmly established the awareness of excessively tight life, budget constraints are not strong enough, and the efficiency of resource allocation and utilization needs to be improved. , The scope and content of budget disclosure still need to be expanded and other issues have affected the overall planning and sustainability of financial resources. After the document was released, it did not attract the attention of the market, so on the 14th, the decline in financial stocks was not large.However, inBank of ChinaAfter being suddenly reduced by social security, there have been more interpretations of this document.
The document proposes to prevent and resolve hidden debt risks of local governments. To prevent and resolve hidden debt risks of local governments is an important political discipline and rule, resolutely curb the increase in hidden debt, and properly handle and resolve the hidden debt stock. Improve the normalized monitoring mechanism, further strengthen daily supervision and management, and never allow new projects or pave the way for new hidden debts. Strengthen the supervision of state-owned enterprises and institutions, improve the funding mechanism of local governments and their departments to enterprises and institutions in accordance with the law, and strictly prohibit local governments from increasing hidden debts in the form of corporate debt. It is strictly forbidden for local governments to illegally raise funds through financial institutions or raise debts in disguise.
Financial institutions must prudently operate in compliance with regulations, conduct due diligence, and strictly control, and it is strictly forbidden to require or accept documents of a guarantee nature or sign agreements of a guarantee nature by local party committees, people’s congresses, governments and their departments. Clean up and standardize local financing platform companies, strip their government financing functions, and implement bankruptcy reorganization or liquidation in accordance with the law for those that have lost their ability to pay.
Improve the market-oriented and legalized debt default handling mechanism, encourage debtors and creditors to negotiate and dispose of stock debts, effectively prevent malicious evasion of debts, protect the legitimate rights and interests of creditors, and resolutely prevent the accumulation of risks from forming systemic risks. Strengthen supervision, audit and accountability, and strictly implement the government’s lifetime accountability system for borrowing and the mechanism for debt reversal investigation.
There is a shareholding system in ShenzhenbankA risk control person told a reporter from China Securities Brokers that “the bankruptcy reorganization or liquidation of those who lose their ability to pay must be carried out in accordance with the law.” This article may have a certain impact on financial institutions that hold more securities.according toCICCResearch report, As of the end of 2018, the interest-bearing liabilities of local financing platforms exceeded RMB 30 trillion, accounting forGDPThe ratio is 34%. However, the debt service guarantee ratio of platform companies is only 0.4 times, that is, the operating cash flow of these companies cannot pay the debts and interest due that year. In the past two years, the situation has not changed significantly due to the new crown epidemic.
The above-mentioned risk control person stated that the current bank,InsuranceOther financial institutions may still be one of the main holders of local debt, and large commercial, policy banks, and joint-stock commercial banks are the main financial contributors in the bond market.Therefore, if there is a mineral liquidation situation, it will affect the financial institutions’PerformanceBring a short-term shock. This may be the main reason for killing the valuation of financial stocks today.
MidlandReserve to start expectation management
last night,MidlandPresident Powell said, “When we make clear progress towards the goal set in December last year, we will reduce the scale of debt purchases. This is likely to be much earlier than when we consider raising interest rates. We have not yet voted on this, but This is a guide.”
Powell said that policymakers will wait until the inflation rate continues to reach 2% and the labor market has fully recovered before considering increasinginterest rate, These two conditions are unlikely to be met by the end of 2022. Powell added that the Fed does not actually sell bonds to the market, nor did it do so during the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis.
St. Louis Federal Reserve Chairman Brad previously said that although it is too early to consider reducing the scale of debt purchases, the Fed has formulated a road map to reduce QE. “Successfully vaccinating 75% of Americans will be a signal that the new crown crisis is about to end, and this is also a necessary condition for the Fed to consider reducing its debt purchase plan.” Brad said.
Although this is not the first time Powell has made serious remarks, it is the first time that he has opened up anticipation management. This expectation is that the Fed will eventually retract. When to shrink? One depends on vaccination, and the other depends on inflation. The former may decide to reduce QE, while the latter may decide to raise interest rates. Although there is still a long period of time before the actual implementation, the opening of this expectation means that the market may have to reconsider the issue of asset allocation, which is by no means good for the superior rights.
The US Jiasheng Group told the brokerage China reporter that there is certain pressure in overseas markets, especially in May and June, they are one cycle later than the Chinese market. People have not dared to go short recently.JohnsonThe vaccine is a bit buggy, and everyone feels that herd immunity has been delayed, so QE reduction will also be delayed. In fact, a few days ago, US President Biden has already said that it will not affect vaccination. In addition, they also said that the United States is gradually returning to normal, the company has asked employees to start work, and children have begun to resume offline classrooms.
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(Source: Brokerage China)
(Editor in charge: DF544)
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