Coinbase即将上市：Damosley的剑高高挂起，谨防三大风险！ _东方财富网

原始标题：Coinbase即将上市：Damosley的剑高高挂起，谨防三大风险！

概括

[Coinbaseisabouttogopublic:theswordofDamosleyhangshighbewareofthethreemajorrisks!InrecentmonthsthetotalmarketvalueofBitcoinhasexceededthe$1trillionmarkforthefirsttimeandthetransactionvolumeofEthereumhasalsoreachedarecordhighObviouslyCoinbase’ssuccessborrowedfromthis”EastWind”HoweveralthoughthelistingofCoinbaseseemstobe”justintime”formostinvestorsthisstockisstillfullofrisks(Britishisfinancialsituation)

For encryptioncurrencyFor the industry and early investors, the public appearance of Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, on the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday will be a historic moment.

According to public information, Coinbase will beNasdaqIt is listed under the stock code of COIN. It adopts a direct listing method, and the valuation is expected to exceed 100 billion US dollars.

Founded in 2012, the company trades more than 50 cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, currently has 56 million users, serves more than 7,000 institutional clients and 115,000 ecosystem partners in more than 100 countries.

In addition to trading cryptocurrencies on the Coinbase exchange, users can also use the digital wallet provided by the company to store their own cryptocurrencies. In addition, the company also provides a service called Coinbase Pro that provides advanced graphics and more complex trading options.

In terms of security, the Coinbase trading platform uses two-step verification and biometric fingerprint login. In addition, Coinbase has also launched the “Insurance“Mechanism, the partner of which is the federal deposit of the United StatesInsuranceCompany (FDIC insurance) to ensure transaction security. However, Coinbase also mentioned in the prospectus, “Due to human error, malfeasance, internal threats, system errors or loopholes or other violations, our security measures have been breached from time to time, and this may be the case in the future. In addition, without Authorized people try to access our systems and facilities, as well as those of our customers, partners, and third-party service providers, and we expect them to continue trying.”

In recent months, the total market value of Bitcoin has exceeded the $1 trillion mark for the first time, and the transaction volume of Ethereum has also reached a record high. Obviously, Coinbase’s success borrowed from this “East Wind”.

However, although Coinbase’s listing seems to be “just in time”, for most investors, this stock is still full of risks.

　　Risk 1: Coinbase’s profits are overly dependent on cryptocurrency market transactions

Unlike emerging technology unicorns such as Roblox and Snowflake, Coinbase has already begun to make a profit. After a loss of $30 million in 2019, the company’s full-year 2020Net profitIt has jumped to 322 million US dollars. Revenue soared 139%. Among them, operating leverage played a role. The company’s revenue grew faster than costs, so profit margins expanded and profits improved.

However, it must be noted that as much as 86% of Coinbase’s revenue last year came from transaction fees-in 2020, due to a 142% year-on-year increase in cryptocurrency transaction volume, transaction fees rose by 137%. Correspondingly, 2020 is also the most prosperous year for the cryptocurrency market. During this period, the price of Bitcoin rose from $7,184 to $28,972, a four-fold increase.

In other words, the prosperity of the cryptocurrency market contributed to the success of Coinbase, but, the reverse situation, investors also need to be vigilant-in 2018, the cryptocurrency crashed, and the price of Bitcoin fell from $13,850 to $3,747, a plunge of 72 %the above. In that year, Coinbase’s trading volume fell by more than 80%, and the number of trading users also fell by 67% during the same period.

Moreover, among the high cryptocurrency transaction fees, 56% of the transaction fee income comes from Bitcoin and Ethereum.

As an exchange, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group andIntercontinental ExchangeSuch traditional exchanges are also often affected by the volatility of trading activities, but these traditional exchanges often have more diversified services and products, and the impact of any single product on its volatility will be minimized. However, in the volatile cryptocurrency market, it is difficult to say that Coinbase will no longer encounter extreme situations and lose money again.

　　Risk 2: There is a bubble in Coinbase valuation

As the largest cryptocurrency trader in the United States, Coinbase undoubtedly has its aspects that investors trust and love. The exchange stores more than 12% of the world’s cryptocurrency assets. As an industry leader, the company also has an undisputed market position.

Looking ahead, Coinbase is indeed still likely to have explosive growth potential, which is expected to allow the company to take advantage of the trend and vigorously expand its market share.

However, investors also need to pay attention to the fact that Coinbase’s direct listing valuation is expected to reach 100 billion US dollars, which is equivalent to 77 times its revenue.this isNasdaq4 times the market value, currently,NasdaqThe market capitalization of the exchange is 25.818 billion U.S. dollars.

Investors who are bullish on Coinbase may say that the company’s historical growth rate and development prospects are exciting, and its valuation is reasonable. However, if the company fails to meet the optimistic expectations of investors, the valuation is prone to collapse.

　　Risk 3: Coinbase still faces greater policy risks

In Coinbase’s prospectus, the company also pointed out that “serious regulatory uncertainty” is one of the main concerns of its business, and emphasized that regulators around the world are stepping up scrutiny of cryptocurrencies.

The company just recently agreed to pay $6.5 million and settled allegations from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which said the company reported misleading information about its trading volume, but the company did not acknowledge the accusations by the regulator.

Regulatory issues have always been the sword of Damosley that hangs above the cryptocurrency market. Earlier this week, Jesse Powell, CEO of Kraken, one of the world’s four largest cryptocurrency exchanges, just warned that governments around the world may restrict the use of bits. He said: “I think there may be some crackdowns. The regulatory uncertainty surrounding cryptocurrencies will not disappear soon. The United States is more’short-sighted’ than other countries.bankThe pressure of other traditional enterprises is very sensitive. “

It should be noted that the US Treasury Secretary Yellen, European Central Bank President Lagarde and other officials have all warned against illegal activities such as Bitcoin money laundering. The U.S. government recently proposed an anti-money laundering rule that requires individuals who hold cryptocurrencies in digital wallets to conduct transactions of $3,000 and above. They must undergo identity checks. In addition, the Indian government is also considering a cryptocurrency ban, and anyone who holds or trades cryptocurrencies may be punished.

　　to sum up

It is certainly not a sensible approach to break in at the beginning of Coinbase’s listing. In the long run, the stock is still inseparable from the growth of cryptocurrencies. Regardless of the growth prospects of this market, its volatility is obvious to all, and the company’s current valuation is indeed high enough to discourage many investors.

　　Related reports:

Coinbase is about to go public, the CEO of the world’s fourth largest digital currency exchange warns that cryptocurrencies will be hit

“The first crypto stock” Coinbase listed on Wednesday, valuation is expected to reach 100 billion US dollars

(Source: Yingwei Finance)

(Editor in charge: DF537)