原标题：智利关闭该国一个月对铜和锂的价格有什么影响？
概括
[HowmuchdoesChile’sclosureofthecountryaffectthepriceofcopperandlithiumforonemonth?TheChileangovernmentdecidedtoclosetheborderfromApril5toMay1Chileistheworld’slargestcopperproducerandthesecondlargestlithiumproducerChile’scopperandlithiumsupplyaccountsforaboutaquarteroftheglobalsupply
The border closure of Chile caused market supply concerns, and the copper-lithium market was shaken.
In response to the rapid increase in the number of cases caused by the new crown virus, the Chilean government decided to close the border from April 5 to May 1. International transportation is only allowed for emergency, humanitarian reasons or medical purposes.
Chile is the world’s largest copper producer and the second largest lithium producer. According to data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), Chile’s copper and lithium supply accounts for about a quarter of the global supply.
Although Chile’s Ministry of Energy and Mining publicly stated on April 6 that the border closure will not affect the normal operation of mining enterprises. But the market still has concerns about Chile’s mineral supply.
Among them, the most influential is the lithium carbonate market.
Chile is the world’s largest supplier of lithium raw materials.Minmetals SecuritiesResearch reportSaid that the types of lithium resources are mainly divided into salt lake brine lithium ore, solid lithium ore, clay lithium, etc., respectively accounting for 58%, 26%, and 7% of the world’s proven reserves.
Among them, the world’s most high-quality salt lake lithium is distributed in Chile, Argentina and Bolivia, known as the South American lithium triangle, accounting for nearly 60% of the global lithium resources.
Longzhong InformationAnalystQuyinfei told the interface news reporter that Chile is mostly brine lithium mines. The country only imports its deep-processed product lithium carbonate and does not import raw materials for brine lithium mines. Therefore, Chile’s closure of the country has limited impact on domestic lithium mine production enterprises.
However, Chile’s closure of the country may boost the price of lithium salts such as lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in the middle reaches. According to customs data, 74% of the lithium carbonate imported by China last year came from Chile.
Northeast SecuritiesAccording to the research report, the Chilean lockdown event may disrupt shipping schedules. As the shipment from Chile to China takes about 35-45 days, the domestic supply of lithium carbonate from May to June may be affected.
According to Qu Yinfei’s prediction, Chile’s closure of the country will result in a significant reduction in the supply of imported lithium carbonate, and the impact on the market can reach more than 20%. In the case of continued tight supply, lithium prices are expected to maintain an upward trend in the second quarter.
Liu Xiaoyi, a cobalt-lithium industry analyst at Shanghai Nonferrous.com, believes in a recent lithium industry analysis report that Chile’s closure of the country will affect about 15% of the overall domestic lithium carbonate supply.
Previously, most salt lake companies in South America had plans to expand production, but due to the impact of the epidemic, the progress of expansion and construction has been slowed down, and the completion of construction is expected to be delayed until the end of 2021 or 2022.
The Dongguan Securities Research Report believes that due to the above factors, the global new lithium production this year is limited, and the global supply of lithium raw materials is tight. Although China’s lithium mines and salt lakes are actively expanding their production, they account for a relatively low proportion of global production, and their contribution to global lithium supply is limited.
As an indispensable raw material in battery cathode materials, lithium is widely used in batteries for mobile phones, computers, and new energy vehicles. Due to its high strategic economic value, lithium is even called the “white oil” of the new era.
Recently, one of the domestic “lithium industry duo”Ganfeng Lithium(002460.SZ) stated in its annual report that the demand for lithium depends on the use of lithium in the end market and the overall economic situation. In recent years, the increase in demand for lithium has been mainly driven by the rapid growth in demand for electric vehicles and energy storage batteries.
According to data from China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in February this year, domestic sales of new energy vehicles amounted to 110,000, a year-on-year increase of 584.7%. The sales of new energy vehicles in eight European countries including Germany, France, and the United Kingdom totaled 95,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 66.2%.
Driven by downstream demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage, the price of lithium carbonate began to rebound in the second half of last year.
According to data provided by Longzhong Information, as of April 6, the mainstream domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate quotations were between 87,000 and 95,000 yuan/ton, which was lower than the price of 44,400 yuan/ton at the beginning of last year, and had increased by 113.96% at most.
At present, the mainstream domestic industrial-grade lithium carbonate quotations are between 83,000 and 88,000 yuan/ton, which is lower than the price of 51,000 yuan/ton early last year, and has risen by 72.55% at most.
Liu Xiaoyi once told the interface news reporter that if the follow-up battery demand is still very hot, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to rise to 90,000 to 100,000 yuan per ton this year.
In addition to the lithium market, the copper market is also affected by the news of Chile’s closure of the country.
Global copper prices have risen recently. On April 6, the price of copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) hit a maximum of US$9,104/ton, up 3.4% from the previous day. It was the fifth consecutive trading day to rise, and the price was at the highest level in the past decade.
As of the close on April 7, the LME copper price fell slightly to 8930. USD/ton, down 1.22% from the previous day.
Shanghai Steel UnionCopper concentrate analyst Meng Wenwen told Jiemian News that the news of Chile’s closure of the country drove market sentiment, increased risk appetite, and drove a general rise in risk assets. Copper prices remained high and fluctuated in the short term.
However, Chile’s lockdown policy is more to restrict the unnecessary circulation of personnel, basic industry operations are still unrestricted, and Chile temporarily supports mining operations, the lockdown policy temporarily has little interference with the overall copper concentrate market.
according toShanghai Steel UnionResearchAccording to feedback, the operation and transportation of mainstream mines are basically normal.
Meng Wenwen also said that the follow-up still needs to pay attention to whether the epidemic situation in Chile and even the entire South America has a trend of further spread. If the epidemic continues to spread, it is not ruled out that mine operations will be disrupted again.
According to data from the Chilean government statistics agency INE, in February this year, due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, Chile’s copper production was 430,100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%.
The recent increase in copper prices is also affected by the positive impact of global copper demand.
At the end of March, US President Biden announced a $2.25 trillion infrastructure construction plan to create more jobs and promote the recovery of the US economy.
In addition, in March this year, the US ISM manufacturingSMEsThe index reached 64.7, exceeding the expected 61.3; China’s PMI index was 51.9, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month.
Huajin Securities Research reported that this shows that the economic recovery of China and the United States is in progress. Moreover, China is gradually entering the traditional peak season of copper consumption, which is expected to re-drive copper prices.
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(Article Source: Interface News)
(Editor in charge: DF075)
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