3.17万亿美元！ 外汇局公布了最新的外汇储备数据。 美国债券收益率的快速上升会对您产生什么影响？ _东方财富网

原标题：3.17万亿美元！ 国家外汇管理局公布了最新的外汇储备数据。 美国债券收益率的快速上升会对您产生什么影响？ 市场前景如何演变？查看最新解释

概括

[317trilliondollars!TheforeignexchangebureauannouncedthelatestforeignreservedataWhatistheimpactoftherapidriseinUSbondyields?】OnApril7thelatestofficialforeignexchangereservedatareleasedbytheStateAdministrationofForeignExchangeshowedthatasoftheendofMarchmycountry’sforeignexchangereservesstoodatUS$3170billionadecreaseofUS$35billionor109%fromtheendofFebruaryPriortothisthemonth-on-monthdeclinewas57billionUSdollars(BrokerChina)

The U.S. dollar index and U.S. bond yields rose rapidly, which also affected my countryforeign exchange reservesChanges.

On April 7, the latest official foreign exchange reserve data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed that as of the end of March, my country’s foreign exchange reserves were US$3.1700 billion, a decrease of US$35 billion or 1.09% from the end of February. Prior to this, the month-on-month decline was 5.7 billion U.S. dollars.

Although the scale of foreign reserves declined in March, the decline was basically in line with market expectations. Many analysts said that the decline in the size of foreign reserves is mainly caused by valuation effects such as exchange rate translation and asset price changes, and does not mean that cross-border capital flows have deteriorated. Generally speaking, the fluctuation of my country’s foreign exchange reserves is basically reasonable, and the scale is basically stable. It is normal for the scale of foreign exchange reserves to fluctuate with changes in valuation. In the next stage, the scale of my country’s foreign exchange reserves will continue to remain stable.

　　Valuation effect causes the scale of foreign reserves to fall

　　The scale of foreign exchange reserves this month fell by 35 billion U.S. dollars from the previous month, mainly due to changes in valuation.

Wang Chunying, deputy director and spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that in March 2021, my country’s foreign exchange market will operate stably and foreign exchange supply and demand will be basically balanced.In the international financial market, affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic and vaccine progress, major countries’ fiscal policies andcurrencyAffected by policy expectations and other factors, the U.S. dollar index has risen, and the bond prices of major countries have fallen.Global stock marketThe overall increase. The combined effect of factors such as exchange rate conversion and asset price changes led to a decline in the scale of foreign exchange reserves that month.

　　Minsheng BankChief macro researcher Wen Bin said that from the perspective of exchange rate conversion, recent US vaccination progress has been good, and epidemic prevention and control has gradually taken effect. The market has given optimistic expectations about the prospects of US economic recovery, which has driven the US dollar index to stabilize and rebound, and the US dollar index appreciated by 2.6% in March. , The overall depreciation of non-US dollar currencies against the US dollar. The part of my country’s foreign exchange reserves denominated in currencies other than U.S. dollars is converted into U.S. dollars, resulting in a valuation loss.

From the perspective of investment valuation, Wen Bin said that in March the major global stock indexes rose as a whole, bond yields rose as a whole, and the hedged global bond index priced in US dollars fell 0.4%. Considering the impact of exchange rate translation and asset price valuation, the scale of foreign exchange reserves has declined this month.

　　What is the outlook for the size of foreign reserves?

　　Generally speaking, the fluctuation of my country’s foreign exchange reserves is basically in line with expectations. Many analysts said that the current scale of foreign reserves is basically stable, and it is normal for the scale of foreign reserves to fluctuate with changes in valuation.

“From the perspective of volatility, since 2020, the scale of my country’s foreign exchange reserves has increased for 8 months and decreased in 7 months, and the volatility is relatively balanced. From the perspective of scale, the scale of my country’s foreign exchange reserves has been at US$3.1 trillion for 11 consecutive months. Although the scale has dropped this month, it is still at a relatively high level in recent years.” Wen Bin said.

Looking forward to future changes in foreign exchange reserves, changes in the US dollar index and U.S. bond yields will still have an important impact on the changes in the valuation of China’s foreign reserves.

Senior of Jiasheng GroupAnalystMatt Weller said that the fundamental factor in this round of global market volatility is the rapid rise in U.S. Treasury yields, which has caused high-value growth stocks to be hit and benefited frominterest rateUpwardbankStocks and cyclical stocks benefiting from the economic restart rose. U.S. Treasury yields may also temporarily consolidate at the level of 1.75%, rather than continue to rise quickly. The US dollar index will also be blocked from consolidating in the short term.

“The reason why U.S. Treasury yields will temporarily stabilize is that market prices have already reflected full interest rate hike expectations and a lot of good news about economic recovery.” Matt Weller said that the rise in yields was initially due to inflation expectations. The recovery has been driven by the recent increase in real yields.United Statesinterest rateThe negative impact on emerging markets does not come from the rise in inflation expectations, but from the rise in the term premium, that is, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen far more than the 2-year period, which is reflected in the steep yield curve, which may reflect people CorrectMidlandWorries about the mistakes of the reserve policy, or the oversupply of U.S. debt.But at the current level, rightMidlandThe interest rate hike concerns of the Reserve Bank seem to have reached an important resistance level and will enter a period of consolidation.

Zheng Houcheng, director of the Yingda Securities Research Institute, is rightBrokerageA Chinese reporter said that in the short term, the US fiscal policy stimulus will remain unabated. It is expected thatCPIYoY andPPIIt is highly probable that it will continue to rise year-on-year. In this context, the yield to maturity of the 10-year U.S. Treasury will likely continue to rise, which will be negative for my country’s foreign exchange reserves. At the same time, as the new crown pneumonia epidemic in the United States has slowed down, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield to maturity has risen, the probability of a sharp decline in the US dollar index is expected to be low in the short term. Finally, in the context of maintaining strong export growth, my country’s trade surplus will remain at a relatively high level, which will benefit my country’s foreign exchange reserves.

Wang Chunying said that the overseas epidemic situation is still complicated and severe, and the global economic recovery and international financial markets still face many uncertain and unstable factors. However, my country’s domestic economic development momentum has continued to increase, and positive factors have increased significantly, which is conducive to maintaining the basic stability of the scale of foreign exchange reserves.

　　Related reports:

Central Bank: China’s foreign exchange reserves at the end of March reported 3,170 billion US dollars

China’s “three consecutive declines” in foreign exchange reserves will not hinder cross-border capital flows to continue the trend of autonomous balance

China’s foreign exchange reserves fell by 35 billion U.S. dollars in March, the largest decline in a year

(Source: Brokerage China)

(Editor in charge: DF398)