概括
[Whytheliquorsectorsufferedanotherheavysetback?CantheBaijiuthemefundbargain?】OnthenewstherecentannouncementsdisclosedbylistedcompaniesshowthatsinceMarchZhangKunofEFundFundhasmadesomeadjustmentstoitsholdingsmakingamoveamongthesecond-tierconsumerstocksgreatlyreducingthepositionofthepreviously”goodheart”ShuijingfangandgreatlyincreasingthepositionthisyearThelarge-scaleZhongjuHigh-tech
On April 7, the A-share liquor sector fell sharply during the intraday session. As of press time,Gujing Gongjiu、Luzhou LaojiaoFell more than 6%,Shanxi Fenjiu、Drunkard liquor、Kouzijiao、WuliangyeWait for a drop of more than 5%,Shuijingfang、Laobai dry wineFell more than 4%,Kweichow MoutaiFell more than 3%.
On the news, recently listed companies disclosedannouncementShow that since March,E FundZhang Kun made some adjustments to his holdings, vacated the second-tier consumer stocks, and greatly reduced his position. He had a good heart.Shuijingfang, A substantial increase in the volume of this year’s adjustmentZhongju High-tech。
Why did the liquor sector fall?
Liquor stocks fell today, is it really because of Zhang Kun’s reduction of holdings?In fact, there are many reasons, such asInstitutional reduction, U.S. Treasury yields rise, liquorfundRedemption, purchase restriction, etc.
ShuijingfangDisclosure of the latest top tenshareholderThe situation, as of March 29, Zhang Kun managed the small and medium-sized E Fund holding 3 million shares. It is worth noting that the 2020 annual report of E Fund’s small and medium-sized funds shows that as of December 31, Zhang Kun still holds 14 million shares of Shuijingfang. This means that since the beginning of this year, Zhang Kun has substantially lightened his position in 11 million shares of Shuijingfang.
It is reported that since last year, Zhang Kun has begun to adjust the position of liquor stocks, choosing to make a moderate profit. Analyzing the 2020 annual report of E Fund’s small and medium-cap funds, we can find thatYanghe shares、Luzhou LaojiaoAll are the top ten heavyweight stocks of the fund at the end of last year.onYanghe sharesIn terms of total purchases of 2.312 billion yuan last year, and total sales of 1.514 billion yuan,Luzhou LaojiaoA total of 721 million yuan was bought and 1.356 billion yuan was sold. You know that Zhang Kun made a lot of money on liquor stocks last year, and it is reasonable to adjust the position of liquor stocks. However, as a “public offering brother”, his every move is more concerned, and the resulting panic may be one of the reasons for this wave of callbacks.
The liquor sector as a whole rose last week,Tianfeng SecuritiesThink it’s mainly the companyPerformanceCaused by catalysis.The agency believes that the long-term valuation of high-end liquor will be anchored by Moutai 40X. Moutai’s scarcity and high barriers have become a consensus. In the long run, it is still the most high-quality and core target.food and drinkIn the “Poetry and Far Places” of the sector, other high-end liquors have seen good year-on-year growth in the first quarter, and the valuation has returned to a reasonable level during the callback. In terms of the sub-high-end, this year’s Spring Festival banquet has not been fully liberalized. Since then, it will be gradually liberalized. The sub-high-end will continue to improve. It is recommended to focus on willingness,Kouzijiao。
During the Qingming holiday just past, the institutions were also busyResearchLiquor. From April 7th to 9th, the 104th National Sugar and Alcohol Fair, which was accused of being an industry indicator, was held. Before that, many organizations had alreadyGatheredSichuan. Industry insiders predict that 2021 will be a big year for the performance of liquor companies. In the first quarter of this year, high-end brands have achieved a growth of more than 30%. It is normal that this year will also be a big year for price increases.
Hou Hao, Manager of China Merchants China Securities Liquor Fund, repeatedly emphasizedThere are short-term fluctuations in the liquor sector, but there must be consensus in the long-term.Regarding the sharp correction of the liquor sector after the holiday this year, Hou Hao emphasized, “Nothing has changed, what has changed is the heart.”
Hou Hao said that the violent pullback is a manifestation of investors’ anchoring changes, and there are also factors that are eloquent. They are affected by many disturbing factors, such as U.S. Treasury yields, liquor fund redemptions, and purchase restrictions.But in his opinion, the liquor sector is in very complicated short-term fluctuations, but it is still optimistic in the long-term.. During the drastic adjustment of liquor in the first quarter, Hou Hao denied that there was a wave of redemptions in the funds he managed.
He believes that this depends on whether investors value half-year or longer-term returns, that is, to make a choice between absolute returns and compound interest. Choosing the former is to control the drawdown, but it may miss the opportunity for future growth. Investors who want to build baijiu must balance their risk-return ratio and whether they have the ability to bear the retracement, but the long-term positive trend remains unchanged.
Hou Hao also said that for some rational investors, he is waiting for an opportunity, or a sufficiently high margin of safety, “this group of people will affect the change of marginal funds.”
Can the Baijiu theme fund bargain?
First, we can look at the historical timeline of the liquor sector.
The first stage: After a certain eight regulations in 2012, liquor consumption encountered a bear market, and Moutai fell from 140 yuan to 40 yuan. After a whole year of downturn in 2013, from mid-2014 to mid-2015, Maotai will be paid another 180 yuan. You know, at this time in 2015,The Shanghai Composite IndexOut of the 5,000-point bull market, Moutai is tantamount to rising with the market.
The second stage: followed by a 10-month adjustment trend. Starting in March 2016, Moutai increased from 160 yuan to 756 yuan in January 2018. An increase of 372% in two years. This stage belongs to Maotai’s own bull market. During this period, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by only 33%.
The third stage: 2018 is a chronological year. The whole market fell overcast. It is said that it is a chronological year because many investors in 2018 did not live beyond 2018. The quotations for the two years after 2018 are the quotations of institutions, the carnival of the Christians, the boom of holding group stocks, and the naming of the 2819 quotations. From January 2019 to February 2021, Moutai rose from 578 to 2,627 yuan, an increase of 354%. During the period, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 49%.
Moutai from March 2016 to February 2021, 15 times in 5 years. There are also adjustments in the middle, small adjustments, such as the two-month adjustment in September and October last year. The adjustment at the end of 2019 lasted for 3 months. The adjustment in 2018 lasted for 12 months.
So what we have to do now is to determine what level Moutai is in. At present, excessive panic about Moutai and Baijiu is unnecessary.
First, the current Maotai weekly trend is in place, and the weekly trend is bullish. Second, even if Moutai is going to undergo a 12-month adjustment, it is more likely to be sideways. The probability of Maotai plummeting is relatively small.
The stock market has always been where risks and opportunities coexist.Only by understanding the risks and opportunities can we find the right investment path. For Maotai, falling below 2,000 yuan is a risk, and holding it is an opportunity.
For Baijiu Index Fund, Of course, it is more cost-effective to buy when the valuation is low.But despite a large amount of adjustments in liquor some time ago, the current valuation is still on the top of the mountainAlthough the PE of baijiu and other industries cannot be put together for reference, Zhang Kun also said that if the PE of baijiu is around 20 to 30, it can be bought without consideration, butIn today’s situation, it is still not recommended to enter the market in large numbers, and you can consider buying when it is lower.Or consider smallFixed investment, Make money when you go up, but you still have money to cover your position when you lose.
For this type of fund, the volatility is relatively large, so before you buy, you have to ask yourself a question, how much loss can you bear? This is the fundamental issue of investment.If you cannot afford it, it is recommended that you do not buy. For example, if the overall maximum loss is 10%, then use one-third of the position to buy the fund, and the remaining position to buyMonetary Fund. So that one-third of the position drops by 30%, and your total position loss is only 10%.You can also use if necessaryCargo baseBargain-hunting positions.
Such index funds include China Merchants China Securities Liquor Index (LOF) (161725), Penghua Wine (160632).
For those who hold liquorHybrid fund, The scale is relatively large, such as E Fund Blue Chip Selected Mix (005827),InvescoGreat Wall Emerging Growth Hybrid (260108), Bank of Communications Quality Upgrading Hybrid (005004), E Fund’s consumer industry stocks (110022), etc.
No matter what the fund is, it should establish the correct investment philosophy for long-term investment. For the liquor theme fund, it is recommended to buy in batches and long-term fixed investment. If you want to hold it for 3-5 years and make a regular investment in a liquor theme fund, you can enter the market anytime.
In addition, don’t worry too much about the products of celebrity fund managers. Unlike index funds, these funds can actively adjust their positions.What we have to do is to trust fund managers, insist on long-term investment, and be friends of time.
In general, baijiu is still a good track, but opportunities and risks coexist. It can go to the sky or go to the bottom. Investment needs to be cautious.
(Compiled from Daily Economic News, Securities Times Net, Fortune Account)
(Editor in charge: DF519)