巴菲特指标“爆破”美股“泡沫”超过历史高点！ 人类历史上最长寿的牛市能执行多久？ _东方财富网

原标题：贪婪还是恐惧？ 巴菲特指标“爆破”美股“泡沫”超过历史高点！ 人类历史上最长寿的牛市能执行多久？

概括

[Greedorfear?Buffett’sindicator”bursts”USstocks”bubble”exceedshistoricalpeak!Howlongcanthelongest-lastingbullmarketinhumanhistorybeperformed?JustnowtheUSstockmarkethassetanewhistoricalhighandtheNasdaqisonlyonestepawayfromthehistoricalhighThelongest-lastingbullmarketinhumanhistoryisstill”continuingtoplayanddance”WhileeveryoneiscaringtheredflagsareapproachingAtpresenttheBuffettindexofUSstocks(totalmarketvalueofUSstocks/USGDP)hasreached190%whichishigherthanthepeakoftheInternetbubbleinearly2000andevenexceededthepeakontheeveofthe”GreatDepression”in1929whichmeansthatthecurrentUSstocksareinhistoryThemostexpensivelevel(BrokerChina)

Three illusions of life:House priceTo fall, A-shares will bottom out, and U.S. stocks will peak.

Even after experiencing the worst epidemic in history, the three major illusions in life still seem to be illusions, and nothing seems to have changed.

Just now, the U.S. stock market has set a new historical high, and the Nasdaq is only one step away from the historical high. The longest-lasting bull market in human history is still “continuing to play and dance.”

While everyone is caring, the red flags are approaching.At present, the Buffett indicator of U.S. stocks (total market value of U.S. stocks/GDP) Has reached 190%, which is higher than the peak of the Internet bubble in early 2000, and even exceeded the peak on the eve of the “Great Depression” in 1929, which means that the current US stock market is at the most expensive level in history.

And all of this is inseparableMidlandChu’s epic “release water”.Therefore, when the U.S. stock market bubble will burst in the future may depend onMidlandThe inflection point of the reserve’s policy.

　　How long can the longest-lasting bull market in human history be performed?

The starting point of this bull market in US stocks began on March 9, 2009. At the darkest moment of the financial crisis, the S&P 500 Index fell to 666.79 points.

Since then, it reversed in despair and started a bull market. At the close of the market on April 1, local time, the S&P 500 index set a new record high, reaching 4019.87 points, a cumulative increase of more than 500%.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch has calculated the duration of each bull market in the history of US stocks. The holder of the longest bull market in US stocks before is: The Internet bull market from 1990 to 2000 lasted 113 months (3452 days), during which the S&P 500 increased by 417%.

Today, this record has long been broken. Since March 9, 2009, the U.S. stocks bull market has lasted for 146.7 months (4401 days), surpassing any bull market in the history of U.S. stocks.

Under this bull market feast, technology stocks are undoubtedly the biggest winners.At present, the top 5 stocks of the S&P 500 index with the highest market capitalization are all technology stocks, followed byapple(AAPL)Microsoft(MSFT)、Amazon(AMZN), Google (GOOG) and Facebook (FB), with a total market value of US$20397 billion, US$1.7742 billion, US$15488 billion, US$1382.5 billion and US$828.2 billion, respectively.

Starting from March 9, 2009, as of March 29, 2021,AmazonThe largest increase, the cumulative increase during the period was as high as 4886%;appleThe increase ranked second, with a cumulative increase of 4536%; Facebook listed after 2009 has the smallest increase, but it also exceeded 6.6 times.

But after the Chinese Lunar New Year, U.S. Treasury yields continued to soar, and the market began to worry about inflation. U.S. technology stocks suffered a round of plunge, which made the focus of market attention change: Will U.S. stocks repeat the burst of the Internet bubble 20 years ago? How long can this bull market take place?

　　Buffett’s index “explodes”, how big is the U.S. stock bubble?

The key to answering the above two questions is, how big is the current bubble in US stocks?MidlandWhen will the storage “discharge” end?

“Stocks God” Buffett once published an article in Forbes magazine in December 2001 that the ratio of the total market value of the stock market to GDP can be used as an indicator to determine whether there is a bubble in US stocks. Since then, “US stock market value/GDP” has been referred to as the Buffett indicator.

Generally speaking, when the Buffett indicator is between 70% and 80%, it is buying U.S. stocksHershey’smachine. If the Buffett index exceeds 100%, investors need to pay attention to the risks of US stocks.

So, how big is the current bubble in US stocks?

According to the latest data, the current “Buffett Index” in the US stock market has reached 190%, which is higher than the peak of the Internet bubble in early 2000, and even exceeded the peak of this indicator before the “Great Depression” in 1929, which is the most expensive level in history.

Therefore, from the perspective of the “Buffett Index” alone, the valuation of the US stock market has exceeded the highest level in history, and other indicators are also confirming that the US stock bubble is approaching the highest level in history.

Robert Schiller, the author of “Irrational Prosperity” and Nobel laureate in economics, has conducted in-depth research on the US stock bubble since 1870, and proposed to replace the 12-month price-earnings ratio with a 10-year period price-earnings ratio (CAPE) instead of the 12-month price-earnings ratio indicator. U.S. stocks are evaluated. This valuation system can accurately identify the stock market bubble before the Great Depression in 1929 and the technology stock bubble in 2000. This indicator is called the Shiller Price-Earnings Ratio Index (Shiller PE).

At present, the current value of Schiller’s P/E ratio is 35.7, which is higher than the highest P/E ratio of 32.6 times in the early period of the Great Depression in 1929, and is beginning to approach the high of 44.2 times P/E ratio in early 2000.

Another legendary investment guru Peter Lynch invented the “rule of 20”, that is, when the stock market’s price-earnings ratio plus the inflation rate in the last 12 months equals 20, the stock market valuation is in a fair range. At present, this indicator has soared to 33.8, surpassing the record of 32.7 set in March 2000 during the Internet bubble.

In addition, Bank of America Merrill LynchAnalystMichael Hartnett said that the U.S. stock bubble is about to reach its peak.American FinanceThe scale of assets has reached 6 times the US GDP, and the bull-bear index has further risen to 7.2 from the previous 7.1, which means that the current US stock market is in a severely overbought range.

Bridge waterfundThe founder, Ray Dalio, also recently measured the U.S. stock bubble. He used 6 quantitative indicators to observe the degree of U.S. stock bubble since 1910. It is currently at about 77% of the historical high digit, and it corresponds to 100 on the eve of the 1929 crash. %s level.

　　There is no bubble, and it doesn’t end with a burst.

“I can calculate the trajectory of celestial bodies, but I cannot measure the madness of human nature.”-Newton.

The global new crown epidemic in 2020 almost pierced the US stock bubble and once staged the most tragic fuse in history. Then the Federal Reserve, with its own efforts, reversed the trend of the US stock market crash, quickly regained the lost ground of the collapse, and constantly refreshed history. New highs and become the engine of the global bull market, global investors continue to enjoy the carnival of bubbles.

From March to May 2020, the Fed printed as much as 3 trillion U.S. dollars, equivalent to 3.3 times the total amount of U.S. dollars printed (900 billion U.S. dollars) in the 200 years before 2008.In addition, data shows that in 2020, the basis for the highest monthly release by the Fedcurrency, Which is equivalent to the sum of 200 years before 2008.

The corresponding total amount and growth rate of broad money set a historical record, an increase of 25% compared to the same period in 2019.

Therefore, since 2020, the U.S. stock bubble has been almost driven by the liquidity of the U.S. dollar.according toTianfeng SecuritiesAccording to the data, of the 29% increase in U.S. stocks (S&P 500) in 2019, valuation contributed 27% and earnings contributed 2%. In 2020, U.S. stocks rose 16% for the whole year, of which earnings fell by 24%, while valuations increased by 54%.

source:Guotai Junanfutures

Looking back at every bull-bear conversion in the history of U.S. stocks, there seems to be a common rule: the Fed “releases water”-speculation + leverage-creates a bubble-the Fed raises interest rates-the bubble bursts.

　　Therefore, whether the U.S. stock bubble will burst or not will largely depend on the Fed’s future policy trends.

At present, the liquidity of the US dollar has not yet reached an inflection point. The Fed’s statement is still dovish and intends to protect the market. It will maintain the existing easing in the short and medium term, and emphasizes that if it exits quantitative easing, it will communicate with the market for a long time in advance.

On March 31, local time, U.S. President Joe Biden announced an infrastructure and economic recovery plan of more than 2 trillion U.S. dollars (approximately RMB 13.1 trillion). Prior to this, Biden also announced 1.9 The trillion-dollar stimulus package pays 1,400 dollars directly to most Americans.

This means that the rhythm of the US “release of water” is still continuing, and the loose liquidity environment may still support the continued bubble formation of US stocks.

But under the bubble carnival, stay sober. Because in human history, no bubble did not end with a burst, and it is only a matter of time before the Fed ends its “release of water”.

In early March, Guo Shuqing, Chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, issued a clear warning that he was very worried that the bubble problem in foreign financial markets would burst. Now the Chinese market is highly connected to foreign markets, and foreign capital continues to flow in. From the perspective of the most important external factors affecting the domestic stock market, the biggest potential negative for A shares this year is probably the collapse of the US stock market caused by the burst of the bubble.

(Article Source:BrokerageChina)

(Editor in charge: DF380)