概括
[Goingup!Whatarethelistedcompaniesbenefitingfromtheboomincementprices?】SinceMarchtheconcentratedstartofmajorprojectsinvariousregionshasdrivenstrongdemandforconstructionmaterialsFollowingthethreepriceincreasesofclinkeralongtheriverinadvancecementpricesinmanyplaceshavebeguntoriseInthelongertermfortherecentlydiscussedkeyindustriessuchascementandbuildingmaterialstobethefirsttoachievecarbonpeakingandcarbonneutralitytheagencybelievesthatthegoalofcarbonpeakingandcarbonneutralitywillhelpeliminateexcesscapacityandpromotecementsupply-sideexpectationsLeadingcompaniesareexpectedtobenefitfromchanges(InvestmentExpress)
Since March, the concentrated start of major projects in various regions has driven strong demand for construction materials. Following the three price increases of clinker along the river in advance, cement prices in many places have begun to rise in general.In the longer term, for the recent hotly debatedCement building materialsKey industries such as the first to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The agency believes that the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality will help eliminate excess capacity and promote expected changes on the cement supply side. Leading companies are expected to benefit.
Cement prices rise in many places
Since March, major projects in various regions have been started intensively, driving strong demand for construction materials. Following the three price increases of clinker along the river in advance, cement prices in many places have started to rise in general, and there have been long queues of trucks at the entrance of cement plants in some popular areas. .
According to news from the China Cement Network Market Data Center, driven by demand, recently cement companies in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Fujian, Qinghai, Gansu and other places have successively issued notices of price increases. Among them, the first round of general rise after the start of the Spring Festival in Zhejiang, the increase was 20-30 yuan/ton; the northwest region increased by a larger amount, the range was 40-65 yuan/ton; the northeast region also ushered in the first wave of tentative increases after the year. The range is 20-30 yuan/ton.
Take Fujian as an example. According to market feedback, the weather in Fuzhou, Fujian has been mostly sunny recently, and market demand has recovered quickly. In addition, most clinker production lines in the province have implemented staggered kiln shutdowns, and inventories have declined significantly. Enterprises have begun to ship in limited quantities and cement supplies are tight. . In order to increase profitability, some major manufacturers in Fujian will again notify Fuzhou and Ningde to raise the price of high-standard cement by 20 yuan/ton and the low-standard price by 30 yuan/ton from the 23rd.
On March 22, cement prices in Guangdong ushered in the first round of increases, with an increase of 10-30 yuan/ton. Among them, major companies in northern Guangdong, the Greater Pearl River Delta (including Yunfu and Huizhou) and Yangjiang have successively notified the increase of cement prices ranging from 10-30 yuan/ton.
From a regional perspective, this round of rise in clinker and cement prices indicates a significant recovery in demand in these regions. Senior cement expert Liu Zuoyi analyzed that this round of rise in clinker and cement prices is due to factors such as rising coal prices and increasing the cost of imported clinker. However, “the most important thing is the concentrated start of major projects in various regions and the concentrated increase in demand for raw materials.” Liu Zuoyi said.
In April, the national rainfall will be greatly reduced, and the cement market will continue to rise. Some civilian and industrial demand that was suppressed by the epidemic last year is expected to be released, and the continued construction will enter an accelerated construction period. Compared with the same period last year, the current national cement and clinker storage locations are low. Affected by the decrease in the volume of foreign clinker and the increase in prices, the downstream demand for replenishment and the further increase in the proportion of clinker for corporate use, the price of clinker along the river is still expected to rise further, or exceed the highest level in the first half of the year.
In the longer term, for the recent hotly debatedCement building materialsOther key industries have taken the lead in achieving carbon peaks and carbon neutrality. Insiders said bluntly: “If the cement industry’s’carbon reduction’ policy is introduced and implemented, it will have a direct impact on clinker supply and technological upgrading. Carbon peaks and carbon neutrality. The gradual implementation of harmony will reduce the output of cement clinker. If it can be implemented, the cement market can be expected.”
Tide of construction drives cement prices
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to February this year, the whole countryInvestment in fixed assetsThe total is 4.52 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.0%. During the same period, the national cement output increased by 61.1% year-on-year, which is a good start.
“The increase in investment in fixed assets means the increase in demand for cement and other raw materials, and the pull on the demand side is the main reason for the recovery of the cement market.” said Chen Bolin, deputy secretary-general of China Cement Association and president of Digital Cement Network. In the second half of the year, projects in various places will be fully launched, and the peak season will be here soon.”
Local governments have successively announced construction targets and lists for the year 2021. Up to now, more than 20 provinces and cities have announced a list of key construction projects this year, with a total scale of nearly 30 trillion yuan.
According to incomplete statistics, a total of 9,533 major and key projects were started across the country in February, with a total investment of 6.52 trillion yuan. The number of projects started increased by 65.8% month-on-month, and the amount of project investment increased by 125.6% month-on-month and 658.6% year-on-year. .
Since March, more major projects have been started in various places. It is reported that the centralized construction of major projects in various regions has sprung up, including Harbin in Northeast China, which has also started a number of major projects in advance, with a total investment of more than 230 billion yuan.
Another example is that on March 18, 132 key projects in Jinan started intensively, with a total investment of 120.28 billion yuan; on the same day, the first batch of 846 major projects in Ningxia started intensively with a total investment of 392 billion yuan; on March 17, Zhejiang 361 major projects were concentrated Construction started, with a total investment of 582.3 billion yuan; on the same day, 15 major projects in the Eastern New District of Chengdu started intensively, with a total investment of 31.03 billion yuan…
“With the hot start of various projects, the demand for raw materials has increased intensively, which has ignited the upstream raw material market.” Industry insiders analyzed: “It is expected that the start of the demand side will help boost the price of raw materials in some regions. Building materials, etc. will usher in a new round of price increases.”
Many people in the industry told reporters that the current cement market is at the start-up stage. From the perspective of absolute prices, the price of cement in the above-mentioned price-increasing areas is still nearly 100 yuan behind the 2020 high. This also means that after the real peak season arrives. , Cement prices still have room to rise.
Carbon emission reduction is expected to change the supply side of the industry
With the promotion of carbon peak and carbon neutral policies, the cement industry may achieve emission reduction effects by reducing production in the future, and is expected to be included in the national carbon trading market first. Leading companies will rely on technological and financial advantages to maximize production.
March 24,Chinese ArchitectureThe “Chinese ArchitectureThe Material Industry Carbon Emission Report (2020) pointed out that after preliminary accounting,Chinese ArchitectureThe materials industry will emit 1.48 billion tons of carbon dioxide in 2020, an increase of 2.7% over the previous year; the building materials industry will emit 10,000 yuanIndustrial added valueCarbon dioxide emissions increased by 0.2% compared with the previous year and decreased by 73.8% compared with 2005. The carbon dioxide emissions of the cement and lime industries are among the top two in the building materials industry.
In the context of the carbon neutral policy, the necessity and urgency of reducing carbon emissions in the cement industry are particularly prominent. “The gradual implementation of carbon peak and carbon neutrality will reduce cement clinker output. Clinker is the core raw material of cement, and the shrinkage of clinker supply will play an important role in stabilizing and improving the cement market.” An insider bluntly said: ” The goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality will force the industry to study low-carbon methods, such as fuel substitution, development of low-carbon cement, carbon collection and utilization, and mine green recovery.”
In terms of “carbon reduction”, leading cement companies have already taken action.Such asConch CementAs a leading demonstration enterprise in the cement industry, as early as 2018, the world’s first cement kiln flue gas carbon dioxide capture and purification demonstration project with a scale of 50,000 tons of CO2/year has been realized, and the utilization of carbon dioxide has been realized. In order to further accelerate the transformation of green environmental protection from technology to products, Conch Group built a 3,000-ton dry ice project at the Baimashan Cement Plant in 2019 to convert the captured carbon dioxide into high-value-added dry ice products.
Recently,Conch CementIt is disclosed on the interactive platform that the company’s main measures to reduce carbon emissions include the comprehensive promotion of waste heat power generation technology, implementation of various energy-saving and consumption-reducing technological transformations, use of clean energy and alternative fuels, optimization of production processes, construction of green factories and green mines, and exploration of carbon capture Set technology and so on.
Shangfeng Cement、Tianshan sharesThey all responded to issues related to carbon emission reduction in recent investor relations activities. among them,Tianshan sharesinPerformanceIt was stated at the briefing that the company will use innovative technologies, including technological transformation of cement production processes, and explore the research and application of carbon capture technologies to further reduce carbon emissions.
Huachuang Securities pointed out that the cement industry’s carbon emissions account for about 13%-14% of the country’s total, second only to 18% of steel. The carbon peaking target will help eliminate excess production capacity and prompt changes in the expectations of the cement supply side.Conch Cement、Huaxin Cement、Shangfeng Cement、Tower Group、Tianshan sharesOther leading companies are expected to benefit.
Stable performance of cement companies
A few days ago,Jidong Cement、Tower Group、Huaxin Cement、Conch CementA number of listed companies in the cement industry, including Tianshan Co., Ltd., have disclosed their 2020 annual reports and performance bulletins. Judging from the disclosed performance, most companies have achieved stable growth and both production and sales are booming.
During the reporting period, the production and sales of leading cement companies increased significantly.WithJidong CementAs an example, the company’s 2020 annual report shows that the company achieved a total ofOperating income35.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.82%; to be attributable to listed companiesshareholderofNet profit2.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.53%.
Founder SecuritiesResearch reportIt shows that despite the impact of the epidemic on operations in 2020,Jidong CementThere is still a significant increase in production and sales. The company’s annual cement output was 94.61 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.43%; cement sales volume was 95.08 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.21%; clinker output was 83.14 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.84%; clinker sales volume was 12.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase 4.94%.
Some leading companies have achieved better growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. The reason is that after the rainy season in the third quarter of the southern region, the cement market’s supply and demand boomed, prompting the performance of listed cement companies to climb.
WithConch CementAs an example, in 2020, the company achieved operating income of 176.243 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.23%; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of approximately 35.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.57%; deducted non-recurring gains and losses attributable to shareholders of listed companies Net profit was 33.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.38%.
In this regard,West China SecuritiesThe analysis believes that the overall recovery of cement demand in the fourth quarter of 2020 is relatively good. In the fourth quarter,Conch CementA total of 52.259 billion yuan in operating income was achieved, a year-on-year increase of 12.93%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 10.411 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.48%. The reason is that in the fourth quarter of 2020, due to the successive start of newly approved key projects in 2020, cement demand recovered well after the rainy season in the third quarter, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of national cement production increased from -1.1% in the third quarter to 1.6%. , The overall demand in the fourth quarter was relatively strong, and cement sales increased year-on-year.
During the reporting period, some companies carried out a large proportion ofDividends. Taking Tianshan Co., Ltd. as an example, in 2020, the company achieved operating income of 8.692 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.28%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.516 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.31%. The company distributes cash dividends of 4.8 yuan (tax included) to all shareholders for every 10 shares.
The agency believes that the current industry performance is returning to growth, and market attention is expected to increase. The optimal combination of sectors considers growth and flexibility.Huaxin CementThe company’s own aggregates and overseas strategies both provide future growth that its peers do not have. The low base caused by the central area of the epidemic in 2020 provides higher performance flexibility this year. The Northwest region is significantly better than other regions in terms of demand space and performance elasticity and sustainability.Focus on: Huazhong Cement Leading Huaxin Cement, Northwest LeadingQilian Mountains、Ningxia Building Materials, Conch Cement, Tianshan Co., Ltd.,Shangfeng Cement。
(Source: Investment Express)
(Editor in charge: DF524)
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