美元指数创四个月新高，全球货币承压。 人民币的未来趋势如何？ _东方财富网

原标题：美元指数创四个月新高，全球货币承压。 人民币的未来趋势如何？

概括

[TheUSdollarindexhitafour-monthhighandwhatisthefuturetrendoftheRMBunderglobalcurrencypressure?InthefaceoftheaggressiveUSdollarthedesireforcapitaltoreturntotheUShasincreasedWhatwillhappentothetrendoftherenminbi?ZhengJianxinmanageroftheInternationalTradeFuturesMacro-FinancialResearchCenterbelievesthatunderthesupportofmultiplefactorstheUSdollarmaycontinuetoreboundintheshorttermHowevertheFed’sMarchinterestratemeetingdeliveredadovishmessagewhichmeansthatthetoneofmonetarypolicyhasnotchangedandtheUSdollardoesnotyethavethemomentumtostrengthenitstrend

　　U.S. dollar index strengthens globallycurrencyLarge-scale depreciation

　　The strength of the US dollar index was mainly boosted by the optimistic expectations of the US economic recovery.recently,MidlandPresident Powell attending the House of Representatives Financial ServicesCommitteeWhen testifying, he said that inflation is expected to rise, but it will not get out of control; US Treasury Secretary Yellen also said that after the epidemic, economic plans will shift to infrastructure investment and tax increases.InvescoChief Globalmarketing strategyTeacher Kristina Hooper pointed out that the United StatesenterpriseThe family is very optimistic about the economic recovery. As the economic situation continues to improve, corporate optimism will continue throughout the year.For example, the Philadelphia Federal ReservebankmanufacturingThe latest data in the business outlook survey is 51.8, which is significantly better than the expected 23.3.

Hooper predicts that this year will continue to seeMidlandPowell insists that any increase in inflation is temporary, and then actually regards the increase in inflation as temporary in behavior.MidlandThe Reserve Bank will certainly not tighten policy this year, which will accelerate economic growth.

The dollar index strengthened, leading to goldpriceAfter a sharp decline, the spot gold has fallen by 8.6% this year, making it one of the worst performing assets this year.The world’s largest goldETFThe holdings of the company have been declining this year. The latest holdings are 1043.03 tons, which is 12.13% lower than the 1187.05 tons at the beginning of the year.

　　The US dollar index rose, and non-US currencies fell to varying degrees.Turkish LiraThe most dramatic performance.On March 22, the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exchange rate fell sharply at the opening, with a drop of more than 15%, and the lowest fell to 8.485 Turkish lira to 1 U.S. dollar, which was close to the lowest level in history. Although the closing decline narrowed, it still fell by 7.14% throughout the day. The dollar has risen 6.3% against the lira this year. Due to the sharp fluctuations in the Turkish lira, the Turkish government has replaced three central bank governors since 2019. The Turkish lira may be the most volatile currency among the world’s major currencies, and its decline against the U.S. dollar in 2018, 2019 and 2020 has all exceeded 10%. Among them, the decline in 2018 and 2020 is even more than 20%. Judging from the current situation, the situation this year is also extremely dangerous.

In this regard, TD Securities strategist Christian Maggio believes that the Turkish lira will also depreciate by 10%-15% in the next few days. “This reform shows Turkey’s erratic policy decisions, especially with regard to currency issues (and risks).”

In addition to the U.S. dollarBrazilian RealIt rose 8.23%, 5.73% against the Swiss franc, 5.45% against the Japanese yen, and 4.4% against the South Korean won.

　　Future U.S. dollarRenminbiLimited appreciation

In the face of the aggressive US dollar, the desire for capital to return to the United States has strengthened. What will happen to the trend of the renminbi? Zheng Jianxin, manager of the International Trade Futures Macro-Financial Research Center, believes that under the support of multiple factors, the US dollar may continue to rebound in the short term.However, the Fed discussed interest rates in MarchmeetingSending a dovish message means that the tone of monetary policy has not changed, and the U.S. dollar does not yet have the momentum to strengthen its trend.

forRMB exchange rateTrend, Zheng Jianxin believes thatFromRMB exchange rate indexFrom a point of view, the current domestic economy is still strong, and the RMB exchange rate index based on a basket of currencies will continue to rise steadily; the two-way fluctuation of the RMB against the US dollar may increase.According to the previous analysis, the U.S. dollar index still has room for further upside in the short-term. At the same time, the pace of economic recovery in the United States has accelerated, even faster than that of China, and the spread between China and the United States has also narrowed. Suppressed, it is expected that the two-way fluctuation of the RMB against the US dollar may increase.

Baocheng FuturesAnalystCheng Xiaoyong believes that from the perspective of the RMB exchange rate, the strongest period of China’s economic recovery has passed.GDPThe growth rate is supported by a low baseYear-on-yearThe growth rate may be the highest in a single season in the past 10 years.In addition, the withdrawal of domestic policies will gradually appear, and the reduction in the Sino-US interest rate gap may meanInternational capitalThe net inflows to China may fall to some extent. Recently the National Standing Committee proposed “Keep the macro leverage ratio basically stable, and the government leverage ratio must be reduced“This means that the leverage ratio of the central and local governments will decrease in 2021.

but,Cheng Xiaoyong does not think that China will see large-scale capital outflows, There are several reasons:

• First, China’s economic dependence on foreign countries has declined, and high-level officials have repeatedly emphasized the need to “gradually form a new development pattern with domestic and international cycles as the main body and mutual promotion of domestic and international dual cycles”;

• The second is ChinaindustryThe system is complete, and the upgrading of the manufacturing industry leads to ChinaExitCompetitiveness rises, as the share of global trade continues to rise, the current account balance will be positive for a long time in the future;

• Third, the Chinese economy has benefited from the growth of new economic factors brought about by new technologies, new infrastructure and “carbon neutrality and carbon peaking”, and the overall potential economic growth rate isGo to the meetingStronger than the United States.

From the perspective of the RMB exchange rate, from late February to late March, a slight depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar is a normal two-way fluctuation range. In the future, RMB assets will still be the most favored by global capital.marketThe currency has greater room for rebound, but the appreciation of the dollar against the renminbi is limited.

(Source: 21st Century Business Herald)

(Editor in charge: DF537)