电子烟行业的迅猛发展正迎来越来越标准化的行业监管。 3月22日下午，工业和信息化部宣布<中华人民共和国烟草专卖法实施条例>“决定（征求意见稿）”，将第65条作为补充条款添加到补充条款中：[NewtobaccoproductssuchaselectroniccigarettesshallbeimplementedinaccordancewiththerelevantregulationsoncigarettesinthisRegulation】
The news has aroused widespread concern, and many people in the e-cigarette industry believe that this change will have a profound impact on the e-cigarette industry. Chen Gulong, founder of the e-cigarette industry media steam fan, told the media that the industry had been waiting for the boots to land, and now that the policy has finally arrived, the industry window will be closed.
Affected by this, the e-cigarette leader RELX’s parent company Fogcore Technology plunged 47.84% on the same day to close at 10.15 US dollars per share.
According to the CIC report, the global replacement cigarette market reached US$63.1 billion in 2019, with a compound growth rate of 26.3% from 2016 to 2019. It is expected to reach US$124 billion by 2023 and a compound growth rate of 18.4 from 2019 to 2023. %. Among them, the scale of electronic atomization equipment (including closed and open electronic atomization equipment) will reach 82 billion US dollars, and the compound growth rate from 2019 to 2023 will reach 23.5%, exceeding the industry growth rate.
CITIC Construction Investment also pointed out that the global tobacco harm reduction trend is obvious, and the rapid growth of atomized electronic cigarettes has become the main tobacco harm reduction substitute. In 2019, atomized e-cigarette products accounted for 55.8% of the global harm reduction substitutes market, with a scale of approximately 35.2 billion U.S. dollars; it is expected that the scale will increase to 82 billion U.S. dollars in 2023, with a compound growth rate of 23.5% from 2019 to 2023. At present, China is the main producer of e-cigarettes, but the user penetration rate is much lower than Europe and the United States. In 2019, the number of smokers in China reached 286.7 million, accounting for nearly one-third of the world, but the penetration rate of e-cigarette users was only 1.2%, and the potential for development is large. The domestic vaping e-cigarette market is expected to grow rapidly, mainly closed products. In 2019, China’s vaping e-cigarette market is worth 1.5 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 0.6% of the overall domestic tobacco market; it is estimated that the domestic vaping e-cigarette market will reach 11.3 billion U.S. dollars in 2023, accounting for 4.0%, 2019-2023 The compound growth rate was 65.9%.
Moreover, due to the introduction of the e-cigarette online sales ban in the previous year, the e-cigarette industry has set off a new round of enclosure movement, and the dazzling variety of manufacturer subsidies has accelerated the barbaric growth within the industry, so a wave of e-cigarettes has not settled. The industry obviously needs more complete policies to restrict and control, and the introduction of the new policy at this moment is very timely, which is expected to play a standard role in the offline melee caused by the e-cigarette industry and promote the orderly development of the industry.
Can e-cigarettes survive?
According to the information on the official website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the key contents of e-cigarettes in the “Draft for Comments” are as follows:
This revision of the “Implementation Regulations” will add an article to the supplementary articles as Article 65: “E-cigarettes and other new tobacco products shall be implemented with reference to the relevant regulations on cigarettes in this Regulation.” The main considerations are:
(1) Promote the legalization of e-cigarette supervision. In recent years, some new situations and new problems have emerged in the field of market supervision of new tobacco products such as electronic cigarettes, and all aspects of society have paid great attention.
(2) Comply with the characteristics of e-cigarette products and current international regulatory practices. In view of the homogeneity of new tobacco products such as e-cigarettes and traditional cigarettes in terms of core ingredients, product functions, consumption methods, etc., new tobacco products such as e-cigarettes should be implemented in accordance with the relevant regulations on cigarettes in the “Implementation Regulations”. This is also consistent with the supervision of new tobacco products such as e-cigarettes in major countries and regions in the world.
(3) Enhance the effectiveness of e-cigarette supervision. The implementation of new tobacco products such as e-cigarettes with reference to the relevant regulations on cigarettes in the “Implementation Regulations” will greatly improve the effectiveness of e-cigarette supervision, effectively regulate e-cigarette production and operation activities, and solve the product quality and safety risks of e-cigarettes, false advertisements, etc. Problems, and effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of consumers.
Some experts said that in addition to directly affecting the stock prices of e-cigarette-related companies, the “Draft of Opinions” may also have the following effects on the consumption of e-cigarettes:
1. The price increase and price limit of e-cigarettes
At present, e-cigarettes are still regarded as ordinary consumer goods and charge a 13% value-added tax. Once e-cigarettes are classified as tobacco in the future, they will be subject to heavy taxes, which will rise to at least 36%. This is a major outbreak that may occur in the future. Bad.
If e-cigarette producers and sellers do not compress profit margins, the part of the final tax increase will be transferred to consumers. Another situation is that e-cigarettes may have a guide price. At present, the highest selling price of cigarettes cannot exceed 1,000 yuan per piece. According to cigarette supervision, e-cigarettes are also very likely to be limited in price.
2. The production side is affected
If e-cigarettes are included in tobacco monopoly management, the production side must first apply for production to the Tobacco Monopoly Bureau and obtain a license before it can be produced. Therefore, the pattern of manufacturers will undergo great changes. At present, Smol International is a well-known e-cigarette manufacturer in China.
3. The sales end is affected
Distribution and retail channels will also change as a result. The existing distribution and retail channels must obtain a tobacco sales license before they can sell. In the future, can consumers only go to tobacco specialty stores to buy e-cigarettes? Combined with the possible guiding prices of e-cigarettes, the advantages of e-cigarette brand specialty stores now disappear.
This report was produced by Hexin Securities Investment Consulting Co., Ltd. The company has the qualifications for securities investment consulting business approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. This report is a market analysis report. The information in the report is derived from public information that we believe to be reliable, but our company does not make any comments on the accuracy and completeness of this information. Guarantee. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. The information, opinions, etc. in this report are for reference only and do not constitute the supporting evidence.
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