原标题：重大紧急情况！ 这个国家的市场崩溃，股票市场暴跌，欧洲股票市场低开。 发生了什么？ 中国资产逆市走强，A股稳定了吗？
概括
[Majoremergencies!Thecountry’smarketcollapsedthestockmarketplummetedandChina’sassetsbuckedthetrendandstrengthenedAreAsharesstable?】WhyareChineseassetsperformingsostronglytoday?ThismayhavealottodowiththefundamentalsfacingChina’scapitalmarketComparedwiththebigwindsandwavesintheperipherytheenvironmentofChina’scapitalmarketisindeedmuchbetterIntermsofCPITreasurybondyieldsandinterestratesChinahasmaintainedaverystablelevelrecently
Compared with the big winds and waves in the periphery, the environment facing A shares is actually very good.
It may be precisely based on this environment that this Monday, the bulls suddenly exerted their strength, and the three major A-share indexes turned red across the board. Closing all day,The Shanghai Composite IndexReported at 3443.44 points, up 1.14%;Shenzhen Component IndexReported at 13760.97 points, up 1.14%;Growth Enterprise Market IndexIt reported 2698.26 points, an increase of 1.00%; Science and Technology 50 reported 1,242.76 points, an increase of 0.93%. The two cities showed a general upswing pattern, but the trading volume was still shrinking, with a total turnover of 759.9 billion yuan in the two cities throughout the day, which also left hidden dangers for the subsequent trend.
Judging from the situation of Hong Kong stocks, most major indexes also rose. However, the external market was not good. The Nikkei index closed down 2%. The Indian stock market also showed a trend of killing off after the opening. The South Korean index also closed down. The US stock market index also saw a sell-off in the early days.
Relatively speaking, A shares today is an “independence day.” Among the emerging markets, Turkey’s situation is not good. After the country’s central bank governor was removed, its foreign exchange and bond markets have seen a significant decline, and the stock market has even fallen to a circuit breaker. Perhaps due to the influence of Turkey, European stocks opened lower across the board, the German DAX index fell 0.5%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.7%, and the French CAC40 index fell 0.6%.FranceIndustrial BankEven more bluntly, to sell out Turkish assets.
Will this trigger a storm in emerging markets? Watch the report!
The Turkish stock market crashed
In fact, today’s external market is not calm. Among them, the performance of the Turkish stock market is particularly worrying. Just now, the Turkish stock market fell to a fuse.
The Istanbul Stock Exchange said that the circuit breaker mechanism for the entire market has been triggered.Stock and stock index contracts in the stock market, derivatives market, and debt securitiesStock repurchaseTrading in the market is suspended.
The implied volatility index of the Turkish lira against the US dollar soared to a new high since March 2019 (Turkish President Erdogan ousted central bank governor Fenics).Turkey 5 yearsCreditDefault swaps (CDS) jumped from 305 basis points last Friday to 464 basis points.Turkey 10-year benchmarkBondThe yield rose to 16.26% from 14.06% last Friday.
So, what happened? This matter may have to raise interest rates significantly from the Central Bank of Turkey, and the governor of the central bank was unexpectedly exempted from the incident. Turkish President Erdogan unexpectedly removed the governor of the country’s central bank on the evening of the 19th.
It is reported that Turkey’s central bank governor Naji Abar is the third central bank governor to be fired by Erdogan in less than two years. At the same time, Turkey has been suffering from a series of economic and geopolitical crises.
Since A’Abar was appointed in November last year, the Central Bank of Turkey has been raising interest rates significantly to curb inflation.The central bank of Turkey set the benchmark in November last yearinterest rateIncreased from 10.25% to 15%, and then in Decemberinterest rateIncreased to 17%. On March 18th, Turkey set the benchmarkinterest rateIncrease to 19%. It is said that this was in response to the rapid rebound in economic activity in the second half of last year.The rapid rebound in economic activity has made Turkey aGroup of TwentyThe only country outside of China that achieved economic growth last year.However, this expansion has exacerbated the long-standingQualcommBloat problem. Turkey’s February inflation rate exceeded 15%, three times the country’s central bank’s target.
The Deputy Chairman of the Justice and Development Party of Turkey stated that there will be no rational use ofcurrencyThe removal of the central bank governor as a policy tool is not to defy the market. The Turkish side also stated that Turkey will not abandon the free market economy because of the removal of the central bank governor.
FranceIndustrial BankSaid that it is recommended to withdraw any long positions in Turkish assets, and it is expected that Turkey will be a cycleRepurchaseThe interest rate was 17% at the end of the second quarter and 20% at the end of the year. The U.S. dollar fell below the 7.8 mark against the Turkish lira USD/TRY, and fell by about 1,500 points in the short-term, narrowing the gain to 8%.
Probably due to the influence of the Turkish market, European stock markets opened lower almost across the board, and the European Stoxx index is now down 0.6%.
China Assets “Independence Day”
Compared with the external markets, Chinese assets performed well today. Although the A-share market index rose modestly, individual stocks performed very well. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at an intraday high of 3443 points. A-share marketShare3,432 stocks rose, almost a general pattern.
The money-making effect is also very good. The carbon neutral sector continues to show a profitable effect. The carbon neutral index rose 6% to lead the market.South Grid Energy、Shenzhen Energy、Huayin Power、Sinoma Energy ConservationWait for the daily limit of 13 carbon neutral stocks.
However, the previous Baotuan assets are still weak.Kweichow Moutai、Ningde eraSome other institutions’ stocks bucked the market and recorded declines.Hengli PetrochemicalThe limit was blocked at one time. This may also be an important reason why the index has not risen much.
In fact, the performance of the Hong Kong stock market was relatively strong, with most of the major indexes rising.
So, why are Chinese assets performing so strongly today? This may have a lot to do with the fundamentals facing China’s capital market. Compared with the big winds and waves in the periphery, the environment of China’s capital market is indeed much better.ToCPI, Treasury bond yield,Interest rate levelIt can be seen that China has remained at a very stable level recently.
Last weekend, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Yi Huiman, said that at present, there are also some interesting phenomena in the market. For example, some scholars,AnalystFocus on external factors far exceeds domestic factors, and focus on U.S. bond yields surpasses LPR,ShiborAnd China’s government bond yields, the focus on overseas inflation expectations exceeds domestic CPI. I will not comment on this phenomenon, but in light of the new development pattern, I suggest you do some thinking.
Chinese peoplebankPresident Yi Gang also stated on Sunday that the current broad money (M2) growth rate is about 10% year-on-year, which is in line with the nominalGDPThe growth rate is basically matched, and the 10-year Treasury bond yield is about 3.2%.Open marketThe 7-day reverse repurchase rate is 2.2%. 2020 yearConsumer Price Index(CPI) rose 2.5% year-on-year. It can be seen from the above figures that my country’s monetary policy is within a normal range, and there is room for providing liquidity and an appropriate level of interest rates.
The appearance of these voices may have made some bulls realize that the situation in China is better than the external market. So, will A shares be hit by Turkey? Analysts believe that the impact may not be significant. After Turkey fuse, the trend of the A50 index is still relatively stable.
Related reports:
Excessive rate hike! The Turkish central bank governor was withdrawn, the lira plummeted by nearly 15%
One fear of inflation and two fear of capital outflows, central banks of emerging markets intensively raise interest rates
Central banks in emerging markets are intensively raising interest rates! Is the interest rate hike coming? How big is the impact on China?
(Article Source:BrokerageChina)
(Editor in charge: DF142)
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