巨峰投资顾问：连续5个阴头！ 时隔2年，A股每周调整会继续下降还是上升？ _东方财富网

概括

[JufengInvestmentAdvisor:5consecutiveYin!Afteralapseof2yearsA-shareweeklyadjustmentscontinuetofallorrise?】View:ThesignalsofstagflationandoverheatinghavebeguntobegraduallyreleasedAlthoughtheeconomicrecoveryisstillacceleratingtheeconomicrecoveryhasenteredthelatestageAstheeconomicrecoveryentersthelatestageandtheliquiditymargintightensthenextsubstantialtighteningwillalsobeItwillbeatrendwhichisnotgoodnewsforthestockmarket

Viewpoint: The signs of stagflation and overheating are gradually being released. Although the economic recovery is still accelerating, the economic recovery has entered the late stage. As the economic recovery enters the late stage and the liquidity margin tightens, the next substantial tightening will also be It is a trend, which is not good news for the stock market. And after the decline since mid-February,marketThe pattern of the bull market is also expected to undergo major changes. The bull market is still not over, but it has entered the late stage of the bull market. The overall opportunity is not obvious. Pay attention to the local sectors and the local bull market opportunities.

Today, the three major indexes of A-shares opened with mixed ups and downs. After the opening, the three major indexes soared, and the index rose by more than 2%. In terms of sectors, the power and steel sectorsPull up, The liquor sector changed, and the panel sector rose; during the intraday, the indexRush up and fall back, Chuang Zhi and Shenzhen Component Index both turned green once,fundsRisk aversion is heating up; approaching midday, the three major indexes are picking up. In the afternoon, the index continued to fluctuate upward.bankBrokerageWhen it rises again, the index will remain strong.

It’s important to note that in addition toKweichow MoutaiExcept for the head group variety, today is basically a general upswing pattern. The recent performance of individual stocks, whether in general or in decline, is actually remarkable. This once again shows that after the next consecutive market experience, sentiment is actually picking up gradually. The increase in opportunities for individual stocks also shows that at this moment, the wait-and-see sentiment of funds has begun to increase. However, from the weekly perspective,Shanghai IndexThere have been 5 consecutive Yin Yin lines. Although one week is a “false Yin line”, this trend is actually very lethal. However, based on historical trends, the index has not been sluggish since then, but has rebounded after a continuous decline.

Looking back at the core factors that have recently led to index adjustments, in addition to the pressure of high valuations, they actually include the late period of the recent economic recovery.interest rateThe continuous upward trend. Under the pressure of high valuations, Baotuan’s core assets continued to fall, and the continuous decline in stock prices dragged down the index.andinterest rateUnder the upward trend, there will also be greater pressure on equity assets.Looking at current trends, U.S. debtinterest rateThere is still room for the upside, so the market is still going back and forth, but the good thing is that in the process of domestic economic recovery, A-shares are listedthe companyPerformanceThe continuous rebound is expected to continue to drive the venue higher under the support of fundamentals. Moreover, after the recent adjustments, market risks have gradually been released and sentiment has begun to pick up. Various factors that inhibit the market’s upward movement have gradually been digested. It can be said that the most difficult period of the stage has passed.

Going back to the disk again, since this round of decline, the upside and consolidation have been mainlybankThe sector is dominated, and the core aspect of this sector isOperatingofimproveAnd the performance rebound. Therefore, under the gradual weakening of the liquidity drive, the performance drive is actually a new driving force. Therefore, while the fundamentals are still improving, the adjustment here still has a certain degree of support. In other words, there is not much room for the index to go down, and it is more that individual stocks still have repetitions.

On the whole, for the market’s positive trend, it has not disintegrated at present. With the accelerated recovery of the economy and the stability of liquidity, the bull market will still remain, but as the economic recovery enters the later stage, the liquidity margin tightens and the real tightening trend, the bull market will also enter the later stage.For those with low risk appetiteinvestmentHolisticPositionStill need to be cautious. For investors with appropriate risks, they can also wait patiently for important opportunities in the late bull market. That is to say, the index still has room to continue to rise, but it is likely to be part of the sector and structural market.

Therefore, it is recommended to focus on several directions in the later stage of the bull market: 1. Financial stocks, which focus on trackingbank.Bank performance improved in the late recovery period, and assetsqualityThe improvement, coupled with the tightening of liquidity, has led to the shifting of funds to low-valued depressions to hedge, so the relatively low-valued financial sector may attract more institutional funds; 2. Part of the weekFutures, Such as colored and so on.Because the economic recovery is not over yet, cyclical stocks still have a chance of relative gains, but it is not appropriate to participate in heavy warehouses at this time, and pay more attention to non-ferrous and other colleagues.themeBoost; 3.consumptionAmong the core leading varieties.The bull market is not over, the valuation will not go to the end, and consumptionStockThe price ratio is relatively high, and the capital carrying capacity is relatively strong.fundOne of the best options for passive configuration.

(Source: Jufeng Finance)

(Editor in charge: DF515)