A股打破牛市和核心“引擎”的历史规律是否正常？ _东方财富网

原标题：A股打破牛市的历史规律和核心“引擎”是否正常？

概括

[A-sharesbrokethehistoricallawofabullmarketIsthecore”engine”normal?】AslongasthetrendofprofitimprovementcontinuesthepositivefeedbackofthestockmarketcapitalcyclewillnotstopAlthoughduetotheinfluenceofforeigncapitaltheperpetualmotionmachinethatdrivesthestockmarketneedsmorefundsaslongasthecoredrivingforceofprofitimprovementisstilltherethepositivefeedbackofthestockmarketwillcontinuebutthespeedisdifficulttoreachthebigbullmarketinhistory

Looking ahead to the rest of 2021, we believe that as long as it is profitableimproveThe trend continues, the stock marketfundsThe positive feedback loop will not stop with a high probability.Although due toHong Kong Stock ConnectThe speed of positive feedback in the stock market will be greatly restricted. However, if annual-level positive feedback is to be transformed into annual-level negative feedback, there is a high probability that the economy will enter a downward trend.short termIt’s hard to see.As the profit pattern of the stock market and residents’ funds are better than 2016-2017, the stock marketFall belowThe possibility of the lower limit of the valuation in 2017 is very low.Under pessimistic assumptions, the stock market isStockfundsGame, There is still a chance to touch the upper edge of the valuation during the year.Under the neutral assumption, residentsCash flowThe probability of entry has not changed, and the stock market still has momentum for upward breakthroughs in the second half of the year.

(1) The valuation fluctuation range since July 2020 is similar to that of 2016-2017. Since July 2020, the valuation center of A-shares has not risen sharply, and the overall PB fluctuation range is very similar to that of 2016-2017. The profitability of the stock market from 2016 to 2017 improved significantly, and the liquidity level was greatly affected by deleveraging, resulting in valuations that could only maintain range fluctuations.

Since July 2020, the overall PB of the stock market, the upper and lower limits of volatility have been consistent with the 2016-2017 range. The overall environment behind this is that although earnings expectations have risen sharply, stock market funds have sufferedinterest rateThe impact of the upside and capital outflow, the increase is not enough to make the stock market break through sooninvestmentThe long-term psychological upper limit of the person.

(2) Why did the stock market fail to break the upper limit of the valuation range in January? At the beginning of 2021, the stock market had an attempt at a valuation breakthrough, during which we observedFund issuanceFurther acceleration, which is very similar to the characteristics of the acceleration stage of the bull market in the history of A shares. However, after the Spring Festival, the rise stopped abruptly. In hindsight, the reason for the failure of the breakthrough is that we believe that the very important microscopic reason is that since July 2020, the outflow of funds through the land-port link is far greater than the inflow, and the difference between the two Close to 500 billion, during the same period,Equity fundswithHybrid fundThe total share increased by about 1.5 trillion. The capital going south has greatly diverted residents’ funds, thus limiting the breakthrough of A-shares to the valuation center, especially in January 2021.

This phenomenon has never occurred in the history of A shares.In the most common bull market of A shares, with the improvement of profitability or the support of policies, the “core development of the bull market”motivation“Starting to work, stock market valuations began to rise. After a period of time, residents’ recognition of the stock market will rise sharply, which will lead to accelerated inflows of over-the-counter funds. At this time, the rise of stock market valuations will begin to be independent of profitability. , And only depends on the operation of the “capital perpetual motion machine”.

This volatility pattern appeared in the middle and late stages of the bull market in 2006-2007 and 2014-2015. Therefore, the big bull market in the history of A-shares has risen faster and faster until the end. However, since July 2020, the stock market’s rate of rise has slowed down significantly. This is not because the core engine of the stock market (earnings improvement) has stopped operating, but the perpetual movement of funds has undergone great changes.The money-making effect of the stock market has indeed attracted a large amount of residents’ funds to enter the market.Hong Kong stocks, Thereby greatly weakening the circulation speed of the stock market perpetual motion machine.

Looking forward to the rest of 2021, we believe that as long as the trend of profit improvement continues, the positive feedback of the stock market capital cycle will not stop. Although due to the influence of foreign capital, the perpetual motion machine that drives the stock market needs more funds, as long as the core driving force of profit improvement is still there, the positive feedback of the stock market will continue, but the speed is difficult to reach the big bull market in history.

(3) Whether it will fall below the lower limit of the valuation range. If you consider the most pessimistic scenario, under what circumstances will the stock market fall below the valuation range. Analogous to 2009-2010 and 2016-2017, the systematic decline of the stock market below the valuation center is because the economy has entered a downward trend at the annual level. We believe that the possibility of such a pessimistic situation is very low.

(4) NowmarketRisk-benefit ratio: Currently at the lower edge of the range, there is still the possibility of touching the upper edge within the quarter, and the index center may still rise again during the year.As the profit pattern of the stock market and residents’ funds are better than those in 2016-2017, the possibility of the stock market falling below the lower limit of 2017 valuation in the future is very low.Stock fundsUnder the assumption of the game (the pessimistic assumption), the stock market still has a chance to touch the upper edge of the valuation during the year. Our neutral assumption is that there is a high probability that the trend of residents’ capital inflows has not changed, and the stock market still has the momentum to break the upper edge of the valuation in the second half of the year.

Industry configuration recommendations:ProductThe price increase is only half completed, ZhouFuturesThe market is still not over, but the cyclical stocks enter the second stage of investment in rhythm, and the volatility may increase. It is necessary to focus on finding the expected difference at the level of individual stocks. We recommend paying attention to non-ferrous, chemical,Insurance, Automotive, electronics and other industriesprofitRealize the logically better direction.In this round of economic recovery, the industries most affected by the epidemic, such as film, aviation, hotels, and tourism, will be the latest industries to enter the business cycle, with low valuations and low valuations.PerformanceThe logic of the turning point has just begun to ferment, it is recommended to focus on it.

(Source: New Era Strategy)

(Editor in charge: DF070)