原标题：突如其来的袭击，加息开始了！ 三个国家将在3天内提高利率，中国会效仿吗？ 中央银行的最新声明！ 股票和基金还可以吗？ 如何获得A股？
概括
[Beneficialraidsoninterestratehikesareon!Threecountriesraiseinterestrateswithin3dayswillChinafollow?HowtogetAshares?RecentlymanycentralbankshaveannouncedinterestrateresolutionsMajordevelopedeconomiessuchastheUnitedStatestheUnitedKingdomandJapancontinuedtomaintaintheirultra-lowinterestratesbutemergingmarketeconomiessuchasBrazilandTurkeytooktheleadinraisinginterestrates(21stCenturyBusinessHerald)
The three central banks were forced to raise interest rates!
Recently, many central banks have announcedinterest rateresolution.Major developed economies such as the U.S., U.K., and Japan continue to maintain ultra-low ratesinterest rateThe level remains unchanged, but emerging market economies such as Brazil and Turkey have taken the lead in raising interest rates.
Although raising interest rates at this time will lead to premature tightening of financing conditions in the economic sector, it is not conducive to economic recovery.However, in order to prevent capital outflows, curb the depreciation of the domestic currency, andQualcommInflation, the three central banks had to unexpectedly announce interest rate hikes.
Brazil CentralbankIt was announced on the 17th that the benchmarkinterest rateIncreased from 2% to 2.75%. This is the first interest rate hike by the Central Bank of Brazil since July 2015.
Brazilian economic analysts believe that the interest rate hike is related to factors such as rising inflation in Brazil. The Brazilian Ministry of Economy announced on the same day that it would raise Brazil’s inflation forecast for this year to 4.4%. The Brazilian Central Bank had previously expected that the inflation rate this year could reach 4.6%.
The Central Bank of Turkey also raised its benchmark interest rate to 19% on the 18th.
Data show that as of February this year, Turkey’s annualized inflation rate has risen to 15.6%, and the Turkish lira’s exchange rate against the US dollar has depreciated by more than 50% compared to the beginning of 2018.
In the latest news, the governor of Turkey’s central bank was removed from office due to excessive interest rate hikes.AnalystIt is expected that the Turkish lira will be heavily depreciated after the stock exchange opens this week.
Central RussiabankAnnounced on the 19th,Raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.5%.
This is the first time Russia has raised its benchmark interest rate since the end of 2018.The Central Bank of Russia pointed out that the move is aimed at coping with rapidly rising inflation and stabilizing the country.currency。
As the central banks of developed economies continue to “release water”, those emerging market economies that have been severely hit by the epidemic will face a more severe internal and external environment, and the road to recovery may be more tortuous and long.
The sound of “pigeon” in developed economies remains the same
Major developed economies have chosen to maintain ultra-loose monetary policies. On the one hand, because the epidemic continues to slow down the pace of recovery, economic prospects are still facing uncertainty; on the other hand, because the current level of inflation is still low.
The Bank of Japan announced on the 19th that it will continue to maintain short-term interest rates at minus 0.1% and will purchase long-termNational debt, So that long-term interest rates are maintained at around zero.
Central Bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that in order to achieve the 2% inflation target, the central bank will continue to implement strong easing policies.According to data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan’s core consumption in FebruarypriceIndex has been 7 consecutive monthsYear-on-yeardecline.
The Bank of England said on the 18th that due to the uncertainty of the UK’s economic outlook under the epidemic, it has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at a historical low of 0.1% while maintaining a GBP 895 billion.BondPurchase plan.
The U.S. Federal Reserve announced on the 17th that it would maintain the federationfundInterest rate targetThe range is between zero and 0.25%, and will maintain a monthly asset purchase scale of no less than US$120 billion untilFull employmentSubstantial progress has been made in the two major goals of China and price stability.
The Bank of Australia also decided in early March to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at a historical low of 0.1%. The governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, previously stated that the current low interest rates will remain at least until 2024.
The data previously released by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development showed that the inflation rate in the member countries of the organization in January this year was 1.5%.
The impact of spillovers cannot be ignored
Under the background that developed economies generally adopt ultra-loose monetary policies, the international capital market is flooded with liquidity and investors’ inflation expectations have increased. They have dumped US long-term Treasury bonds and other bonds, causing their prices to fall and yields to rise, which in turn caused global financial market volatility. Intensify.
Since mid-February this year, the yields of long-term government bonds in major European and American markets have accelerated.
From February 12 to 25, the yield on German 10-year government bonds rose by about 20 basis points. Since the beginning of this year, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield has risen by about 80 basis points, and it rose by 6.6 basis points in a single day on March 18.
Analysts believe that the continued upward rise in U.S. bond yields may cause a reversal of capital flows in the global market and sharp fluctuations in exchange rates, leading to severe impacts from the epidemic,public financeEmerging market economies in poor conditions are facing risks such as capital outflows and debt defaults.
The daily cross-borderCash flowActivity report shows,In the first week of March, emerging markets saw a single-day outflow of funds for the first time in nearly six months, with a daily outflow of approximately US$290 million.
The agency said that the recent rise in U.S. bond yields has amplified market panic, and the net outflow of international funds in emerging market stocks and bond markets is the best example of investors’ concerns about the market.
Will China follow up to raise interest rates?
up to date! Yi Gang, Governor of the Central Bank, said:Monetary policy has always been maintained within the normal range,Sufficient tools and means,Interest rate levelModerate.
On March 20th, the Chinese peoplebankPresident Yi Gang delivered a speech at the roundtable of the China Development High-level Forum, with the theme of “Using Normal Monetary Policy Space to Promote the Development of Green Finance”.
Yi Gang said that we have more room for monetary policy control.China’s monetary policyAlways stay within the normal range, adequate tools and means, and moderate interest rates.
We need to cherish and make good use of the normal monetary policy space, and maintain policy continuity, stability and sustainability.
He pointed out that at present, we must implement a prudent monetary policy and support a stable monetary policy.enterpriseTo ensure employment, continue to fight the tough battle to prevent and resolve major financial risks, and further deepen financial reform and opening up.
Yi Gang pointed out that achieving carbon neutrality requires a huge amount of investment, and it is necessary to guide the financial system to provide the required investment and financing support in a market-oriented manner.
Yi Gang said that the People’s Bank of China has identified green finance as a key task for this year and during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period.In 2015 and 2018, the People’s Bank of China formulated specific targets for green bonds and green bonds.CreditThe revised “Green Bond Support Project Catalog” will soon be completed, and the content related to fossil energy will be deleted.
At the same time, we are working with the European side to promote the international convergence of green classification standards, and strive to introduce a set of common classification standards within this year. We will also discuss this issue under the G20.
Yi Gang revealed that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, climate change factors will be fully incorporated into the policy framework.In terms of financial stability, we are studyingpressure test, Systematically consider climate change factors.
In terms of monetary policy, we are studying and adoptingPreferential interest rate, Green special re-lending and other support tools to encourage financial institutions to provide financial support for carbon emission reduction.
foreign exchange reservesIn terms of investment, we will continue to increase the allocation of green bonds, control investment in high-carbon assets, and incorporate climate risk factors into the investment risk management framework.
Interest rate hikes will be bad for equity investment, how can A shares go?
After the interest rate increases, it means that the risk-free interest rate rises, and some of the money may flow out of the stock market, which is undoubtedly bad for equity investments such as stock market funds.
There is no way to determine how our country will respond to global interest rate hikes in the future. From the perspective of our domestic situation, the biggest difference from other countries that raise interest rates is that,Our prices are now stable and the economy is in order. We cannot see irrational price increases for the time being. Therefore, the probability that monetary policy will follow other countries’ interest rate hikes does not exist for the time being.
Is the A-share bull market still in the three countries to raise interest rates?
However, there is a strange aspect of A-shares. It is often that when the external market news is fluctuating, it does not cause much shock to other people’s markets. Instead, it will cause some psychological panic for us. Similar incidents often occur, so we should keep close in the next week. Pay attention to the impact of interest rate hikes in three countries over the weekend.
Investor friends, please stay cautious and optimistic. Although the bull market is still there, the number of people making money in the bull market is still very small.
(Source: 21st Century Business Herald)
(Editor in charge: DF075)
Solemnly declare: The purpose of this information released by Oriental Fortune.com is to spread more information and has nothing to do with this stand.