当明星基金经理仍在调整头寸时，核心资产的涨跌是无法预测的？ _东方财富网

原标题：在星级基金经理的仓位调整仍在进行的过程中，很难预测核心资产的兴衰吗？

概括

[Theriseandfallofcoreassetsisunpredictablewhilethestarfundmanager’spositionadjustmentisstillinprogress?】Thestockmarketadjustedagainandthefund’sheavystockssufferedheavylossesChoicedatashowsthatthefund’sheavyholdingsfell220%Affectedbythismanystarfundsthatstoppedfallingandreboundedintheearlystagewerehithardagainandtheirpaceofrecoverysloweddownagain(ShanghaiSecuritiesNews)

March 19, A sharesmarketAdjust again,fundHeavy stocks suffered heavy losses.Choice dataShow that the fund’s heavy storage sector fell 2.20%. Affected by this, many star funds that stopped falling and rebounded in the early stage were hit hard again, and their pace of recovery slowed down again.

In addition to paying attention to the trend of the fund’s net value, it is worth noting that the difference between the estimated net value of the fund and the actual net value may hide the fund’s rebalancing password.

　　Estimated net value reveals the secret of fund adjustment

The core assets that stopped falling and rebounded some time ago have suffered another heavy blow today.As of the close, manyFund Awkward StocksThe decline ranks among the forefront of the sector.Such asYanghe sharesClosed down 4.45%,WuliangyeClosed down 3.55%,WuXi AppTecClosed down 5.72%,Mindray MedicalClosed down 4.99%,Ganfeng LithiumIt closed down 5.13%.

A few days ago, the heavy stocks of funds stopped falling and rebounded, causing many funds whose net worth dropped sharply in the previous periodborrowThe machine recovered.According to the estimated net value of the fund, many star fundsmanagerToday’s fund may turn green again, and its pace of recovery has slowed again.

　　In addition, during the previous strong rebound of fund stocks, many star fund managersmanagementThere is a big difference between the actual net value of the fund and the estimated net value, which may mean that the fund has undergone obvious adjustments.

For example, by observing the net value of E Fund Small and Medium Cap and E Fund Blue Chip Select Funds managed by Zhang Kun, it can be found that the actual net value and estimated net value of the two funds have a certain degree of deviation. Taking March 18 as an example, the estimated net value of E Fund Blue Chip Select increased 3.08% on that day, but the actual net value increased by 2.23%.

E Fund’s estimated net value of small and medium caps rose 1.57% on the day, but the actual net value rose 1.79%.

Estimated net worth is based on fund historyreportPositionAnd the value predicted by the index trend does not represent the true net worth situation, but to a certain extent can be used as the current dayFund incomeImportant reference.

According to data from Tiantian Fund Network, the average deviation between the estimated net value of E Fund’s small and medium-sized caps in the past January and the actual net value is 0.57%, and that of E Fund’s blue chip selection is 0.60%. On March 18, the estimated net value and actual net value of E Fund’s medium and small caps deviated within the normal range, while the deviation of E Fund’s blue chip selection was greater. This may mean that E Fund’s blue chip selection has a greater position adjustment action, so in the near period In the process of the rebound of core assets of A-shares over time, the “eat” dividends will be reduced, but this also means that once the core assets of A-shares continue to decline, the impact will also be reduced.

Industry insiders mentioned that when a fund manager manages a large scale, the difficulty of adjusting its position will be magnified, unlike the small-scale fund that “turns around.The method of operation will also be obviously restricted. The advantage of large scale is the ability to implement fixed increments and other requirements for scale.investmentStrategy, the disadvantage is unless you find the next one that can be held for a long timestockReplace gradually, otherwise it will be more difficult to move between individual stocks.

　　When will the core asset adjustment end?

Looking at the net worth of the funds managed by many star fund managers as of March 18, the recent “recovery” trend is good, and the downward trend has also been curbed.

For example, in the past week, Hu Xinwei’s HuitianfuconsumptionThe industry rose 2.83%, Liu Yanchun’sInvescoGreat Wall Xinxing’s growth rose 0.86%, and Jiao Wei’s Yinhua Wealth rose 0.79%.

　　However, with the market re-adjustment on March 19, whether the core assets have passed the cold winter, and whether the net value of Shigekura funds can enter the stabilization space has become a question that requires further observation.

Huachuang Securities believes that through the fund’s latestPositionMonitoring can see that the agency’sCash flowInto the real estate, general, electricity andPublic utilities, Construction and other sectors. However, the increase in positions is limited, and the continuity of industry returns needs more time to verify.From the perspective of institutional positions, fundsshort terminreal estate, Building materials, comprehensive finance, comprehensive, transportation and other industriesAdd warehouseOperation, but for the Baotuan industry within one monthLighten upIt is not obvious. In addition, the current Baotuan industry has experienced an average of about 20%. The adjustment of the Baotuan stocks may no longer be as extreme as the previous period. After this round of adjustments, the institutional Baotuan may “come back.”

　　Bank of China SecuritiesAccording to the analysis, the adjustment of core assets may not be completely finished, and the CSI 500 is relatively adjusted in place, but due to the relatively high quality of the targetCSI 300If there is a gap, the rebound may be limited in the later period.As the economic recovery superimposed on inflation is still in the upward channel, andcurrencyIt is difficult for policies to be looser in the future,BondShort-term opportunities are not great, but long-term insurance capital allocation funds can be considered for deployment. On the whole, it is very difficult to allocate large-scale assets in the second quarter of 2021. It is recommended to be relatively weak. The follow-up situation will become clearer after the second quarter.

(Source: Shanghai Securities News)

(Editor in charge: DF142)