YCC的先行者，日本银行已经出手了其他中央银行，他们会“抄写作业”吗？ _东方财富网

概括

[TheBankofJapanthepioneerofYCChasalreadytakenactionbyothercentralbanksWillit”copyhomework”?TheonlytwocentralbanksintheworldthatpracticeYieldCurveControl(YCC)areJapanandAustraliaInvestorsarenowputtingpressureonbothtomakedecisionsonthispioneeringmonetarypolicyinthefutureTheBankofJapanhastakentheleadin”surrendering”andannouncedonFridaythatitwilladjusta10-yearyieldtargettomakeitmoreflexibleThismaygivebondtradersandpensionfundsasighofreliefbecausetheirearningshavebeenTheYCCpolicythathasbeenimplementedforfourandahalfyearsandtheinterestrateclosetozeroformorethan20yearsaresqueezedout

The only two central banks in the world that practice Yield Curve Control (YCC) are Japan and Australia.investmentThe author is putting pressure on the two, urging them to talk about this pioneering futurecurrencyThe policy makes a decision.

The Bank of Japan has taken the lead in “surrendering” and announced on Friday that it will adjust a 10-year yield target plan to make it more flexible, which may make it more flexible.BondTradersAnd pensionfundSigh of relief, because their income has been implemented for four and a half years of YCC policy and nearly zero for more than 20 years.interest rateThere was not much left.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is in a different situation. It started a three-year period 12 months ago.National debtRate of return control,Now it is working withmarketTry to deal with when to withdraw from the control. The most likely result is that the Reserve Bank of Australia will change the purchase of bonds maturing in April 2024 to bonds maturing in November 2024.

The situation in Japan and Australia is critical to the continued influx of global investors into the reinflation transaction, and to theborrowloancostThe government is also enlightened, because the bond purchase plan is creating a lot of debt.

Sydney WestpacBankingCorp.chiefAnalystBill Evans said that credibility and patience will become the slogan of global central banks.He said that after years of failing to reach inflation andwageAfter the target, the central bank may be ready to keep an eye on the market.

The two countries adopted YCC under completely different circumstances, which made their yield curves show opposite results and laid the foundation for the choices they now face.

When Japan started a new experiment in 2016, it had fallen into deflation many times, and its short-end yield rate had been affected by the ultra-low policy for many yearsinterest rateAnd investors are actively buying bonds, so it is reasonable for Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to choose 10-year Treasury bonds when realizing YCC.Sumitomo LifeInsurancethe companyEconomist Yuaki Muto said:

“10 yearsTreasury bond yieldIt is the most symbolic in the Japanese market, and it has the greatest impact on the market, so the Bank of Japan chose it. Considering that there is still a long way to go before the Bank of Japan’s inflation target, the main issue is not how to withdraw from the current policy, but how to maintain stimulus for a long time and reduce the negative impact on the economy. “

Before formulating its own framework, the Reserve Bank of Australia publicly stated that it had studied the experience of the Bank of Japan and the difficulty of exiting this unconventional policy.RBA Chairman Lowe chose a 3-year bond yield, partly because most of Australia’s borrowing is short-term.Commonwealth of AustraliabankCreditStrategySupervisorBelindaCheung said:

“They (the Reserve Bank of Australia) focused on convincing the market from the beginning that YCC is not permanent. The challenge is that if these stimulus policies are removed, the Australian dollar will appreciate against the exchange rate of trading partners. This is the key because it will lead toEmploymentpostcut back. “

The Reserve Bank of Australia has already tasted this,The Australian dollar surged to 0.80 last month, Because investors are betting on global economic recovery and monetary policy will return to a more normal state as soon as possible. The bond yield difference between April and November 2024 also fluctuates.Subsequently, the Reserve Bank of Australia reassures investors that YCC will not end early.。

Paul Sheard, a senior researcher at the Kennedy School of Harvard University in Australia, said: “Japan has become a pioneer that central banks can emulate in implementing YCC.” The Bank of Japan announced its policy evaluation report on Friday.Expand the target range of 10-year Treasury bond yields to between plus or minus 0.25%.They want to improveBond MarketThe operation of reducing to includeInsuranceThe negative impact of investors, including companies and pension funds, who rely on the yields of Treasury bonds to obtainInvestment income. In fact, in the past month,As traders bet ahead of time, the yield on Japanese 10-year Treasury bonds once soared to 0.175%.

beforeMidlandJulia Coronado, economist Chu and founder of MacroPolicyPerspectivesLLC, said of YCC:

“This is a highly technical policy. One of the lessons of unconventional policies is that you cannot easily withdraw unless you can accept the consequences of doing so.”

(Source: Golden Ten Data)

(Editor in charge: DF532)