中信证券：美国债务有多少空间可以突破1.7？ _东方财富网

概括

[CITICSecurities:HowmuchspaceisthereforUSbondstobreakthrough17?Startingfromtheframeworkofrealinterestratesandinflationexpectationstherealinterestrateof0%andtheinflationtargetof2%areimportantreferencepointsPuttingasidethefactorsofmarkettransactionscombiningrealinterestratesandinflationexpectations2%maybearelativelyneutralreferencepointforthe10-yearUSTreasuryinterestrate

Recent U.S. debtinterest rateThe rapid upward trend of becoming a global capitalmarketThe focus of attention.As of March 18, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen above the 1.7% level, and has risen by about 80bp year-to-date, far surpassing other major economies.National debtinterest rateThe upside range. From the perspective of the whole year, we believe that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may maintain a gradual upward trend.aimsPoint or near 2%.

　　U.S. debtinterest rateThe upward trend began with the market’s concerns about rising inflation and the strengthening of expectations for economic recovery after the outbreak’s turning point.

Simply split the 10-year U.S. Treasury interest rate intoReal interest rateAnd inflation expectations, in the second quarter of last year, the bulkProductpriceThe continuous recovery after the bottoming has led to the gradual increase of inflation expectations. The commodity boom from the end of the year to the beginning of the year once again catalyzed inflation expectations and became an important driving force for the upward trend of US bond interest rates. The actual interest rate reflected by TIPS began to loosen after the expansion of the scope of vaccination in Europe and the United States and the emergence of the inflection point of the epidemic, and a wave of upward movement started in mid-February. The expected improvement in economic fundamentals is the main reason for the rise in real interest rates.

　　The SLR extension is pending, exacerbating the market’sshort termfluctuation.

The SLR relaxation policy will expire at the end of March, and the non-renewal of maturity may hurt the demand for US Treasury bonds, butMidlandThe Chu has yet to answer positively on whether to extend the subsequent SLR.As expectedmanagementFrom the perspectives of the advancement, the relatively sufficient funds of the Ministry of Finance, and QE’s main purchase of national debt, we expect that the probability of subsequent SLR extension may be relatively limited, and the negative sentiment of the market will gradually ferment. Some market participants have begun to sell US debt out of concern.

　　U.S. bond interest rates may reach about 2% within the year.

Starting from the framework of real interest rates and inflation expectations, the real interest rate of 0% and the inflation target of 2% are important reference points. Putting aside the factors of market transactions, combining real interest rates and inflation expectations, 2% may be a relatively neutral reference point for the 10-year U.S. Treasury interest rate. From a technical perspective, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has been operating at the lowest level in history last year, and there is no obvious resistance level when we see upwards of 2%. As long as the economy and inflation expectations are strong enough, it will be a matter of time before the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returns to 2% or above.

　　The upward trend in U.S. bond interest rates hit high-valued assets.

In the past year, under the background of global easing, the stock markets of the United States and some emerging markets have seen relatively obvious rises, mainly due to the rise of stock valuations under the low interest rate environment.U.S. Treasury yields as a global risk assetPricingAnchor, may affect emerging markets from a valuation perspectiveState UnitCity performance.Currently, the stock markets of emerging market countries generally face the problem of high valuations. The stock market caused by rising U.S. bond yieldsValuation adjustmentHas begun to cash out.

　　exchange rateMarket volatility is magnified.

U.S. dollar assets have the dual attributes of hedging and income. During the recovery period of the global economy, the decline in the demand for hedging puts U.S. dollar assets under selling pressure.Other economyThe attractiveness of dollar assets will pick up again. Under the influence of the two forces, the dislocation of economic recovery and changes in asset prices, the volatility of the US dollar index may be amplified, similar to 2008-2012. Against the backdrop of global inflation and rising U.S. bond yields,RenminbiExchange rate fluctuationsSex may be improved.

　　The impact on the domestic market is relatively limited.

FromcurrencyFrom a policy perspective, on the one hand, the independence of domestic monetary policy has increased significantly in recent years, and has been affected by U.S. monetary policy and U.S. debt.Interest rate fluctuationsThe impact is relatively small. On the other hand, although the upside of long-end U.S. bond yields will narrow the China-U.S. interest rate differential to a certain extent, the current China-U.S. interest rate gap is still around 150bps. Even if U.S. bond interest rates rise to 2%, China-U.S. still has more than 120bps. The spread,Safety matRelatively sufficient.

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(Article Source:CITIC Securitiesthe study)

(Editor in charge: DF532)