就在前面！ 4,000亿个“ Pigmao”回答了六个主要问题。 150,000名股东可以放心吗？ _东方财富网

原标题：就在前面！ 4,000亿个“ Pigmao”回答了六个主要问题。 150,000名股东可以放心吗？高毛利率，大量关联交易…都应负责

概括

[Justfromthefront!The400billion”Pigmao”respondstothesixmajorquestionsCan150000shareholdersbeatease?】MuyuansharespositivelyrespondedtoalldoubtsOntheeveningofMarch16thMuyuanrespondedtothe”ShenzhenStockExchange’sInquiryLetterforMuyuanStocks”Initsresponseitrespondedtothefocusofmarketconcern:highgrossprofitmarginalargenumberofengineeringrelatedtransactionsandafewTheshareholderROEismuchlowerthantheparentcompanyshareholderROEandsoon(BrokerChina)

just,Muyuan sharesRespond positively to all queries.

In the evening of March 16,Muyuan sharesReply to the “Shenzhen Stock Exchange RegardingMuyuan shares“Inquiry Letter”, in its reply, it responded to the focus of the market’s concern: Gao Maointerest rate, A large number of engineering related transactions, a fewshareholderROE is much lower than the parent company shareholder ROE and so on.

Prior to this, the big V “Xia Xia Ying” had issued an article to publicly question Muyuan shares, which triggered intense market discussions. The questioned issues mainly centered on the fixed asset/sales revenue ratio being much higher than other pig companies; minority shareholders ROE is much lower than parent company shareholders ROE: The actual profit is obtained by the construction company under the controlling shareholder, etc.

In the first two trading days of this week, the stock price of Muyuan shares closed in the green market, with a cumulative decline of 5.76%. The total market value has also fallen below the 400 billion mark to 381.5 billion yuan.

　　Muyuan shares responded to doubts, 150,000 shareholders take “reassurance”?

　　After fierce market discussions, on March 15th, Muyuan shares were inquired by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. On the evening of March 16, Muyuan shares positively responded to all questions raised by the market, giving 150,000 shareholders “reassurance.”

　　Responding to Questions 1. The proportion of fixed assets in sales revenue is much higher than that of peers.

In response to the problem of “fixed assets accounting for a much higher proportion of sales revenue than in the same industry”, Muyuan responded that the company’s pig farming mainly adopts a “full self-raising, full chain, and intelligent” model, while listed companies in the same industry mostly adopt generations. The raising model is relatively “asset-light”, while the fully self-raising model requires the company to independently invest in the construction of pig farms.Therefore, compared with listed companies in the same industry, the company’s fixed assets account forOperating incomeThe ratio is relatively high, and the turnover rate of fixed assets is relatively low.

　　Responding to questions 2. Pig breeding woolinterest rateSignificantly higher than other listed pig companies.

Regarding the gross profit rate of pig breeding, which is significantly higher than other listed pig companies, Muyuan responded that the main reasons are related to the source of breeding pigs and piglets,productThere are differences in structure and pig breeding methods. Among the live pig products, the gross profit rate of breeding pigs and piglets is significantly higher than that of commercial pigs, while the company’s sales of breeding pigs and piglets have a larger proportion.

　　Responding to the question three, and relatedenterpriseThere are a large number of related transactions in Muyuan Construction.

In addition, regarding the questioned focus issue “There are a large number of related transactions with related companies Muyuan Construction”, Muyuan shares gave a detailed response. The related purchases between the company and Muyuan Construction accounted for a relatively low proportion of the total purchases in the current period, which were all lower than 20%, and after comparison, the difference rate between the unilateral cost of the pig house constructed by Muyuan Construction and the unilateral cost of the pig house constructed by a non-related party construction company is relatively small.priceIt is fair.

　　Response to doubts 4. The ROE of minority shareholders is much lower than the ROE of parent company shareholders.

At the same time, in the reply letter, Muyuan responded to the doubt that the ROE of minority shareholders is far lower than that of the parent company’s shareholders. It stated that the main reason is that the company and Huaneng GuichengTrust、Central enterprisepoverty areasindustryinvestmentfundThe subsidiaries established by strategic investors such as joint ventures were all established at the end of 2019. The project investment scale is relatively large. However, the construction of pig farms and the formation of production capacity of these subsidiaries require a certain amount of time, which results in large minority shareholders’ equity. Minority shareholders have relatively low gains and losses, and the weighted average return on equity of minority shareholders is lower than the weighted average return on equity of parent company shareholders.

　　Responding to queries 5. Large deposits and large loans.

Finally, Muyuan shares also responded to the question of “large deposits and large loans”.currencyThe main reason for the higher fund balance is,PerformanceThe substantial growth has resulted in a larger net operating cash flow; in order to expand the scale of production and construction, and meet the needs of centralized procurement and payment for construction in the fourth quarter, the company increasedbankborrowThe size of the funds appropriately increased the amount of cash reserves.

　　Responding to queries 6. Short-term borrowings and long-term borrowings increased substantially.

Regarding the reasons for the substantial increase in short-term borrowings and long-term borrowings, MuyuanannouncementZhong said that the company’s pig farming adopts a “fully self-raising, full chain, and intelligent” breeding model, and the expansion of the pig farm area requires a large amount of capital; in addition, the fourth quarter is the company’s centralized purchase of raw materials and the period of centralized payment of engineering funds.

　　Regarding “Pigweed”, a fierce debate on the screen

The “fuse” that Muyuan shares was questioned by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was a questioning article by the big V “Xia Di Xia Ying” last weekend.

On March 13th (last Saturday), “Xia Di Xia Ying” published “Will Mu Yuan be Thunder?” “In the article, a number of questions were raised about the “Pigmao” Muyuan shares, including: the fixed assets/sales revenue ratio is much higher than other pig companies; the company’s minority shareholders ROE is much lower than the parent company’s shareholders’ ROE; actual profits are under the control of the controlling shareholder Of construction companies, etc.

　　After the article was published, “Xia Di Xia Ying” continued to intensively publish many opinions on Muyuan shares. The main points of doubt are:

1. The fixed assets of Muyuan shares are too high, almost equivalent to sales income, and the fixed assets/sales income is much higher than other listed companies in the same industry;

2. There are a large number of related transactions between Muyuan and the construction company under the controlling shareholder (about 19 billion yuan in the past two years), and it is questioned that the related company Muyuan Construction has made a lot of money from the listed company;

3. The ROE of minority shareholders is much lower than that of parent company shareholders. The ROE of minority shareholders is only 13.98%, while the ROE attributable to shareholders of the parent company is as high as 47.88%, which is equivalent to these minority shareholders doing non-profitable partnership business with listed companies .

After the publication of this article, it sparked fierce debate in the capital circle. The number of comments exceeded 2,600. There were no shortage of professional investors and professional investors who participated in the discussion.BrokerageAnalystWait.

In fact, after intense discussions over the weekend, the main issues of the big V’s doubts have been discussed clearly.

First of all, with regard to the high proportion of fixed assets/sales income of Muyuan shares, some investors said in the comments that this is determined by Muyuan’s heavy-asset pig raising model, from feed mills to breeding piglets and then to pig raising. The field, Makihara all go off the field personally, the layout is completeIndustry chain,andWen’s sharesOther pig companies are mainly outsourcing breeding models.

　　Secondly, regarding the issue of minority shareholders’ ROE too low, some investors have clearly given a reasonable explanation: this is caused by the merger rules. At the time of the third quarter report of 2020, the asset-liability ratio of Muyuan’s parent company was 74%.Long-term equityThe investment is twice the owner’s equity.

These two explanations are almost the same as the announcement of Muyuan shares on the evening of March 16th, and Muyuan also explained very clearly in the announcement regarding the huge amount of connected transactions.

What’s the highlight of the “Pigweed” that fell below 400 billion yuan in the future?

In the first two trading days of this week, the stock price of Muyuan shares fell continuously, with a cumulative decline of 5.76%. The total market value has also fallen below the 400 billion mark to 381.5 billion yuan.

Judging from the overall disk situation of the past two days, the decline of Muyuan shares may have little to do with the doubts over the weekend.Let’s first look at March 15th. A-share industry leaders suffered heavy setbacks. Among themLongji sharesLower limit,Ningde era、Shanxi Fenjiu、ZTE、TigermedFell more than 8%,Kingsoft Office、Intech MedicalIt fell more than 10%, and Tian Muyuan shares fell 3.58%, outperforming other leading stocks.

Looking at March 16th, although the entire day fell by 2.26%, the transaction volume was significantly reduced compared with the previous day, which means that the shrinking volume of the day is likely to be the inertial decline of the recent trend.

Industry analysts said that the core reason for Muyuan’s decline in the past two days was not the question of the weekend’s big V, but the collective decline of Baotuan stocks. The future stock price trend of Muyuan shares will be mainly affected by the supply of pigs, pork prices, and Muyuan’s industry The influence of factors such as concentration and cost control.

First of all, looking at the industry level, since July 2020, domestic pig prices have entered a downward channel. Although the pig price rebounded briefly before the Spring Festival, it has recently begun to fall. In February, the average price of live pigs in 22 provinces and cities was -15.2% month-on-month, mainly because pork consumption declined after the Spring Festival and slaughter companies kept prices down.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs’ monitoring of 500 bazaars across the country, in the first week of March, the national pork price was 47.46 yuan per kilogram, down for 6 consecutive weeks, down 19.8% year-on-year.The agency predicts that in the first quarter of 2021, the country’s live pig production will increase by about 40% year-on-year.Price levelIt will go down.

Standing at the current point in time, with the pigssupplyAs the price of pigs has increased and the price of pigs has fallen, the dividends of this round of pig cycle have faded away.

In the downward trend of pork prices, cost is the core of the second half of the pig cycle, and it has almost become the consensus of all companies. Whoever has high costs will be eliminated. This will be the market norm in the next 2-3 years, and the concentration of the pig breeding industry will further increase.

Among them, Muyuan has always adhered to the self-breeding and self-raising model. The production of feed, breeding pigs, and piglet fattening are all done by itself. Therefore, Muyuan has the lowest cost in the entire pig industry.

Changes in the average cost of listed pig companies

In addition, compared toWen’s sharesThe asset-light operation model of “company + farmer”, Muyuan,new HopeThe self-reproduction and self-raising model of other pig companies is easier to expand and the expansion rate of slaughter is faster, and the breeding efficiency is higher.

　　Therefore, in the future, leading pig companies dominated by Muyuan may increase industry concentration through “quantity for price”. 2020Q1-Q3 Muyuan shares,new Hope、Zhengbang Technology、Wen’s sharesExpansion has been accelerated one after another, and capital expenditure has increased substantially, with a year-on-year increase of 441%, 374%, 250%, and 203% respectively.

As of the end of 2020, the top 10 companies in China’s pig breeding industry accounted for only 12.3%, and the market structure is still very fragmented.

In the future, whether Muyuan can pass through the pig cycle depends on cost and scale expansion.

(Source: Brokerage China)

(Editor in charge: DF512)