美股继续纠缠于不断飙升的收益率，请注意本月下半月的这一风险！ _东方财富网

原标题：美股继续纠缠于不断飙升的收益率，请注意本月下半月的这一风险！

概括

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After the US stock market experienced last year’s surge, volatility has intensified this year. Especially since this month, the US S&P 500 Index has risen nearly 0.27%.NasdaqThe composite index has fallen by 5.18%.

U.S. Treasury yields continue to soar andmarketConcerns about inflation are undoubtedly the most noticeable.From the perspective of the fixed income market, the recent marketMarket SupervisionReform anxiety seems to be heating up, which leads toWall StreetBig banks have already begun to cut their securities holdings and lending, and US stock investors have to be vigilant.

The first thing to note is that inflation concerns last week helped the long-termNational debtYields soared to a one-year high, and a lot of money poured incurrencyThe market also briefly let the measurementbankThe key indicator of inter-liquidity-overnightBorrowinterest rateIt fell below zero. As the fixed income market became turbulent, people began to worry about whether the “supplementary leverage ratio” (SLR) could be successfully extended after it expires on March 31.

　　So, what is SLR? Why does the market need SLR?

First of all, the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) is used by the regulators in 2007-2009.pensionAfter the financial crisis, part of a broader set of capital rules revised to discourage large Wall Street investment banks from taking excessive risks.

Before the financial crisis, the market was flooded with different capital adequacy ratio indicators. One of the characteristics of these indicators was to assign different risk weights to assets.bankProvides an opportunity for them to mismatch asset risk levels to avoid supervision.At this time, the supervisory level can only reset all asset risks to the same, no matter if it isReserve, National debt orCredit, This is for the bigbankSLR-For the banking system, the size of the reserve isMidlandIt’s not allowed to change and use for other purposes at will, so the bank can only reduceCredit、BondAnd other assets.

At the time of the outbreak, the SLR rule does not apply to all industries waiting to be developed at that timeMarket environment, So, in April 2020,MidlandThe Reserve Bank relaxed the leverage requirements for large banks and began to allow certain investments not to be included in the calculation of a key leverage ratio, including U.S. Treasury bonds orMidlandReservedeposit(Reserve). The banking industry has always believed that the reserves deposited with the Fed are basically risk-free, and they have long opposed the inclusion of this part of the capital in the SLR.

However, this SLR exemption will expire at the end of this month, and so far, the Fed has not disclosed whether it may be extended. What the market is most worried about is that the SLR cannot be postponed, so what impact will it have on the market?

It can be understood that, on the one hand, due to the previous relaxation of the SLR by the Federal Reserve, thebusinessWhen calculating the leverage ratio, banks can choose not to include U.S. debt and reserves, thereby enhancing the flexibility of theenterpriseProvide credit. However, if the SLR relaxes the policy and does not extend, the expansion of reserves will affect the calculation of the bank’s leverage ratio, and then the willingness of these banks to lend will be correspondingly weakened; on the other hand, if this exemption is not extended, it may also be It prompted large banks to sell U.S. Treasury bonds and led to further increases in yields.

At the moment, SLR extension is still facing greater resistance.On the one hand, federal depositsInsurancethe company(FDIC) Chairman Jelena McWilliams said that the bank does not need further bailouts. On the other hand, on February 26, two prominent Democratic senators Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown did not mention continuing to relax the SLR to help the banking industry in their letter to the Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Powell also said last week that it will make a decision soon.

　　Goldman SachsofAnalystRichard Ramsden said that the changes in SLR regulations may cause banks to pay additional capital for their treasury bonds, which may trigger the market to sell U.S. bonds. The bond and short-term financing markets are increasingly anxious about this.

Earlier, BMO’sinterest rateStrategists commented that taking into account the previous surge in U.S. Treasury yields, the recent sharp decline in the holdings of Tier 1 brokers reflects that they are aggressively selling U.S. bonds because they are more uncertain about whether the Fed can extend the time limit for relaxing the SLR policy. .

As of the end of last year, includingJPMorgan (NYSE:JPM)、Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) andCitigroup (NYSE:C) and other major banks hold at least 5% of total assets, which is much higher than the SLR requirement. However, if the Fed does not extend the rescue period, after the Fed and the Treasury Department have invested huge amounts of money into the financial system, the bank’s balance sheet will inevitably inflate. According to data from the Federal Reserve, since the outbreak of the epidemic, bank reserves have doubled to 3.4 trillion U.S. dollars, and the US government has also signed a new 1.9 trillion U.S. dollar stimulus package.

Richard Ramsden pointed out that if no measures are taken,Bank of America, Citi andJPMorganBy the end of this year, it will be below the minimum requirement of SLR. Therefore, they will have to issue preferred shares, slow the growth of their balance sheets, or combine the two. at the same time,Morgan StanleyPossibly through noteInvest inOriginally offset the pressure to meet the market’sRepurchaseexpected.

(Source: Yingwei Finance)

(Editor in charge: DF537)