央行近期运作的解释：持续等额的多边基金和反向回购业务的神秘之处是什么？ _东方财富网

原标题：央行近期运作的解读：持续等量的多边交易和反向回购操作的神秘之处是什么？

概括

[Interpretationofthecentralbank’srecentoperations:WhatisthemysteryofthecontinuousequalamountofMLFandreverserepurchaseoperations?】ThecentralbankannouncedonMarch15thatinordertomaintainreasonableandsufficientliquidityinthebankingsystemonMarch152021thePeople’sBankofChinalauncheda100billionyuanmid-termloanfacility(MLF)operation(includingtherenewaloftheMLFmaturityonMarch16)And10billionyuanreverserepurchaseoperationsThetermsofthetwoareoneyearand7daysandtheinterestrateisthesameasthepreviousoperation295%and22%respectively

Central Bank March 15announcementCalled for maintenancebankThe liquidity of the system is reasonable and abundant, and the people will be on March 15, 2021.bank100 billion yuanMid-term loan facility(MLF) operations (including the renewal of the MLF expiration on March 16) and the 10 billion yuan reverseRepurchaseoperating. The terms of the two are one year and 7 days respectively,interest rateThe same as the previous operation, 2.95% and 2.2% respectively.

The data shows that the MLF due on March 16 is 100 billion, and the MLF due on March 15 is reversed.RepurchaseIs 10 billion.This means that after this operation, the central bankOpen marketOperationally zero delivery.

According to data, since March 1, the central bank has conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 10 billion yuan on the open market for 11 consecutive trading days, and the duration of the equivalent operation is the longest on record. In addition, the operation volume of the last 6 trading days has been flat and mature, with neither net investment nor net withdrawal of funds.

What signal did the above operation release?The industry believes that the currentcurrencyThe policy operation has a distinctive neutral color to maintain liquidity. The reverse repurchase operation of “small amount and high frequency” is intended to guide market expectations and maintainbankStability of inter-funding.

　　LPR will remain unchanged in March

As one of the important indicators of short-term market funds, the central bank’s reverse repurchase has always attracted attention.In late January this year, the central bank continued to withdraw large amounts of net funds through the open market, which caused the market capital to be tense.priceThere is a continuous upward trend. The central bank’s tightening of short-term liquidity has also triggered market concerns about a turn in monetary policy, which has caused A-shares to pull back for many consecutive days.

Today, the central bank operates the same amount for 11 consecutive trading days, and has zero investment and zero return for multiple days. Data show that from March 8-15, the central bank invested a 7-day reverse repurchase of 60 billion yuan (interest rate2.2%), the reverse repurchase of 60 billion yuan is due within 7 days, and the central bank’s reverse repurchase net investment is 0 billion yuan.

From the perspective of market performance, DR007 and R007 continued to be less than 7 days of reverse repurchase operations in early Marchinterest rate, But the price of DR007 on March 15 was around 2.25%, which was higher than the 7-day reverse repurchase operation rate. Although market interest rates were low in the first half of March, the central bank continued to conduct small-amount reverse repurchase operations, showing the characteristics of “small-amount high-frequency”, which is intended to guide market expectations and maintain the stability of inter-bank funds.

Chen Yulu, deputy governor of the Central Bank, said previously that in terms of improving the framework of modern monetary policy, the focus of work is to improve the money supply control mechanism and maintaincurrency supplyAnd the growth rate of social financing scaleNominal economyBasically match the growth rate, do not engage in flood irrigation, protect wellCommon people“Money bag”. At the same time, it will further enhance the regulation and transparency of monetary policy operations, establish an institutionalized monetary policy communication mechanism, and effectively manage and guide expectations.

The central bank’s monetary policy report for the fourth quarter of 2020 pointed out that judging the trend of short-term interest rates first depends on whether the policy interest rate changes, mainly whether the central bank’s open market 7-day reverse repurchase operation interest rate changes, and should not pay too much attention to the number of open market operations.The number of open market operations will be flexibly adjusted according to various temporary factors such as finance, cash, and market demand, and its changes do not fully reflect the trend of market interest rates, nor do they represent central bank policies.Interest rate changes。

In other words, although the amount of reverse repurchase operations in 7 days is small, the price remains at around 2.2%, releasingShipmentThe currency policy maintains a stable signal.

As the medium-term policy interest rate, the MLF interest rate is the center of the interest rate operation of the medium-term market.National debtMarket interest rates such as the yield curve and interbank certificates of deposit revolve around MLFInterest rate fluctuations。

Recent 10-year treasury bond yield, 1-yearbusinessInterbank deposit certificateYield to maturity(AAA) Maintaining basic stability means that the current medium-term market interest rates continue to fluctuate around the medium-term policy interest rate as a whole, and the operating conditions are relatively stable. The central bank does not need to expand or reduce the scale of MLF operations to adjust medium- and long-term market liquidity. MLF operating interest rates remained unchanged in March, also in line with market expectations.

Qu Qing, chief economist of Jianghai Securities, said that in terms of funding, it will be in a stable period in the short term, and it will neither be more accommodative nor will it be tightened immediately.

It is worth noting that the 1-year MLF operating interest rate is the reference basis for 1-year LPR quotations. According to the general law since the LPR reform, the MLF interest rate does not change in the current month, and the LPR quotation will usually remain stable. The March MLF interest rate remains unchanged, which means that the probability of LPR quotation adjustments in the current month is relatively small. The 1-year LPR quotation announced on March 22 will remain unchanged with a high probability.

　　Monetary policy operations are dominated by reverse repurchase and MLF

Looking ahead, the next stage of government bond issuance will bring some disturbance to the market. For example, from March 15 to 19, the net financing of government bonds was 88.7 billion yuan, the Chinese bonds were 40 billion yuan, and the local bonds were 48.7 billion yuan.

According to the government work report and budget report, the deficit rate for 2021 will be around 3.2%, which is lower than last year. The deficit scale will be 3.57 trillion yuan, of which the central and local governments will be 2.75 trillion yuan and 820 billion yuan, respectively. Local government special projects The debt is 3.65 trillion.This part of the governmentBondWill be released one after another.

The MLF operation in March was the first operation after the “two sessions” this year. The operating interest rate and scale directly reflect the monetary policy direction determined in the government work report this year.

The government work report stated that the macro policy should continue to relieve market players, maintain the necessary support, do not make a sharp turn, adjust and improve in time according to changes in the situation, and further consolidate the economic fundamentals. A prudent monetary policy must be flexible, precise, reasonable and appropriate. Put the service of the real economy in a more prominent position, and handle the relationship between economic recovery and risk prevention.

A large scale in ShanghaiBrokerageChief Fixed IncomeAnalystSaid that this year’s monetary policy is expected to be more flexible in balancing the goals of stable growth, stable leverage, anti-inflation, and risk control. The probability of the People’s Bank of China cutting interest rates and RRR cuts is unlikely, mainly through the combination of “reverse repurchase + MLF” to maintain liquidity Sexuality is reasonable and abundant, and subsequent M2 and social financing growth rates will gradually decline.

　　Huatai SecuritiesZhang Jiqiang, deputy director of the Institute, said that the main line of macro policy this year is “no quick turn.” The task of reducing physical financing costs is still relatively arduous. Therefore, the probability of interest rate increases such as MLF is relatively low. However, the government work report puts the service of the real economy in a more prominent position. Maintaining the basic stability of the macro leverage ratio is still the key KPI of monetary policy. Interest rates should not continue to be lowered under the constraints of inflation and other constraints. Funds are likely to remain tightly balanced, and fluctuations are expected. Has increased.

(Source: 21st Century Business Herald)

(Editor in charge: DF358)