美国众议院投票通过了1.9万亿美元的新官方救助法案

原标题：美国众议院投票通过1.9万亿美元的新官方救助法案

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[TheUSHouseofRepresentativesvotedtopassthefinalversionoftheUS$19trillioneconomicrescueplanonMarch10localtimewith220votesinfavorand211votesagainstitandtheUSHouseofRepresentativesvotedtopasstheUS$19trillionnewcrownbailoutThebailoutbillTheplanwillbesubmittedtoUSPresidentBidenforsigningintolaw(CCTVNews)

The US House of Representatives voted with 220 votes in favor and 211 votes against it on March 10, local time, to pass the $1.9 trillion new crown bailout bill. The plan will be submitted to U.S. President Biden for signing into law.

The main measures of the bailout bill include:

• Each person can receive a bailout of up to US$1,400, and approximately 90% of families and individuals will be eligible.

• The federal government will add $300 a weekunemploymentAlms.

• Expand childrenduty freeAmount, the tax credit per child can reach up to $3,600.

• Allocate 350 billion US dollars as state and local aid, and allocate billions of dollars to help small businesses affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic.enterprise, The research, development, and distribution of vaccines, and use in K-12 schools to help primary and secondary school students return to the classroom.

• Increase food stamp benefits by 15% and extend it to September.

• Help low-income families pay rent.

• Increase the federal government’s “Affordable Care Act” subsidies, and provide rural hospitals andmedical serviceThe agency provided $8.5 billion.

　　Related reports:

Inflation, rising debt… Is Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus unnecessary?

Daniel Gross, director of the European Policy Research Center, believes that the current problems facing the U.S. economy are related to certain sectors.supplyendOutput gapTherefore, the Biden administration’s US$1.9 trillion stimulus, which is mainly aimed at the demand side, will have limited effect on the US economy, but will make Europe and China’smanufacturerBenefit.

Last Saturday, the US government’s new round of US$1.9 trillion economic relief program was approved by the Senate, and then it will be sent to President Biden for signature.The implementation of the plan makesinvestmentThe authors further strengthened their expectations of the US economic recovery and rising inflation. However, some economists believe that the US government’s attempts to stimulate an economy that has begun a strong recovery may not be worth the gain.

The first is inflation concerns.U.S. 10-yearNational debtThe yield has risen from around 0.9% at the beginning of the year to the current 1.5%. The rising U.S. bond yield reflects investors’ expectations for future inflation.

　　Morgan StanleyThe latest forecast shows that rent, medical and necessitiespriceThe rise will push the US inflation rate to 2.6% in April and May this year, and it may fall back to 2.3% by the end of the year.Morgan StanleyIt is believed that the inflation rate will remain at a relatively high level by the end of 2022.

GloballycurrencyEasing, under the background of economic recovery, the bulkProductThe price rose first.InternationalOil priceBreaking through US$60/barrel, the cumulative increase so far has exceeded 30%; copper prices hit the highest level since April 2012; on February 23, BloombergCommodityThe spot index hit a new high since 2013.

There are also views that in the short term, US inflationary pressures are manageable. Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC International, recently wrote an article that after the new crown pneumonia epidemic in 2020, under the unprecedented “money + fiscal” double easing stimulus, the process of bottoming out and rebounding inflation in developed economies may accelerate, but taking into account The output gap has not yet been fully closed, and the short-term overall inflation pressure is relatively controllable.

Regardless of eventual inflation, the U.S. government debt accounts forGDP(GDP) Is bound to increase further. According to the forecast of the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in February this year, the US federal budget deficit will reach 2.3 trillion US dollars in 2021, and the federal debt will account for 102% of GDP.

Regardless of debt and inflation, economists have different views on how much the US$1.9 trillion stimulus will have on the U.S. economy.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) announced on TuesdayreportLieutenant General raised his forecast for US economic growth in 2021 to 6.5% from 3.2% in December last year. “The large-scale fiscal stimulus in the United States, coupled with the faster popularization of vaccines, will increase the US economy by more than 3 percentage points this year.” The report said.

According to the estimates of the Brookings Institution, by the end of 2021, the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus will make the United StatesReal GDPCompared with the situation without stimulus measures, it will increase by about 4%, and it will increase by about 2% by the end of 2022.

But Daniel Gros, director of the Centre for European Policy Studies, believes that the current problem facing the U.S. economy is the supply-side output gap in certain sectors. Therefore, the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion The stimulus aimed mainly at the demand side has limited effect on the US economy, but will benefit European and Chinese manufacturers.

According to statistics from the Brookings Institution, in the US$1.9 trillion stimulus plan, the amount of funds related to the new crown vaccine, new crown detection and other epidemic-related funds is US$400 billion, and the support for local and state governments and federal government expenditures are about 350 billion. US dollars, another 150 billion US dollars is for corporate funding, and the remaining 1 trillion US dollars is for families and financially disadvantaged families.

Gross wrote in Project Syndicate that last year the U.S. government introduced nearly $4 trillion in fiscal stimulus measures. Even so, U.S. domestic consumer spending remains weak. Because under the economic blockade during the epidemic, production or sales in many economic sectors were forced to be interrupted, resulting in a “passive” reduction in personal consumption.

According to data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (US. Bureau of Economic Analysis), in December 2020, US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) fell by 2.6% compared with January 2020.serviceConsumer spending dropped sharply by 5.9%.

At the same time, data from the St. Louis Fed showed that American individualsSavingsThe rate (personal savings as a percentage of personal disposable income) rose from 7.6% in 2020 to 20.5% in January 2021. It even reached a high of 33.7% in April 2020, because at the end of March last year, the United States introduced a fiscal stimulus plan totaling approximately US$2 trillion.

“American families putgovernment subsidyA large part of it has been saved, and if most of the fiscal transfers are saved by households, additional stimulus will not be able to generate additional demand. “Gross said.

(Source: CCTV News)

(Editor in charge: DF372)