概括
[Theliquorsectorbrokeout”Moutais”aremakingacomeback!Isthereanewtrendinnorthboundfunds?】CICCpointedoutthatafterrecentadjustmentsmostofthehigh-endleadingandsub-high-endcompaniesinChina’sliquorhavefalleninvaluationthisyearCombiningtheindustrygrowthrateandthedeterministicgrowthtrendinthenext3-5yearstheliquorsectorhasenteredthevaluelayoutrangeThedownsideislimitedThecurrenthigh-endliquorleaderscorrespondtothisyear’sprice-earningsratiohasdroppedto40-42times(KweichowMoutai47times)andtheprice-earningsratioofmostofthesecond-high-endcompanieshasfallento30-35timesCorrespondingtothehighestpointofstockpricebeforetheholidayMaotaiandLaojiaoweremorethan60timeswhileWuliangyewasmorethan55timesAccordingtotheDCFmodelmostkeycompanieshave20%upsidepotentialcorrespondingtothisyear’sreasonableprices
Disseminate the A-share market information as soon as possible, observe the market trend, grasp the logic of ups and downs, and explore investment opportunities.
Liquor sector rises higher! Shanxi Fenjiu, Lanzhou Yellow River daily limit, Kweichow Moutai rose more than 2%
The liquor sector, which has pulled back sharply recently, rose in intraday trading on the 10th. As of press time,Shanxi Fenjiu、Lanzhou Yellow RiverDaily limit,Drunkard liquorRose more than 6%,Luzhou LaojiaoAn increase of over 4%,Yanghe shares、Kweichow Moutai、Laobai dry wineWait for an increase of more than 2%.
For the liquor sector, institutional analysis pointed out that the callback of liquor since the Spring Festival has nothing to do with the fundamentals.interest rateAfter the rise of the head, it will bring pressure on high-value growth stocks, and it is more of a problem at the level of capital transactions.
CICCIt also pointed out that after recent adjustments, the majority of high-end and sub-high-end liquors in Chinathe companyCorresponding to this year’s valuation has fallen, combined with the industry’s growth rate and the deterministic growth trend in the next 3-5 years, the liquor sector has entered the value layout range, and the downside is limited. The current high-end liquor leader corresponding to this year’s price-earnings ratio has fallen to 40-42 times (Kweichow Moutai47 times), the P/E ratio of most sub-high-end companies fell to 30-35 times.Corresponding to the highest point of stock price before the holiday, Moutai and Laojiao were more than 60 times, andWuliangyeIt is more than 55 times.According to the DCF model, most key companies are reasonable for this yearpriceThere is already 20% upside.
A number of lithium carbonate companies raise product prices related companies or receive attention
Lithium CarbonateenterpriseUpregulateproductprice. According to data from the business agency, starting from March 9th, Sichuan Rongli Technology Co., Ltd.’s lithium carbonate price has increased.industryGrade lithium carbonate prices and battery grade lithium carbonate prices are both raised by 1,000 yuan/ton; Sichuan Rongli Technology Co., Ltd. lithium carbonate prices are rising, industrial grade lithium carbonate prices and battery grade lithium carbonate prices are both raised by 1,000 yuan/ton; Qinghai Zhonghong The price of lithium carbonate in Mining Co., Ltd. has increased, the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate has increased by 2,000 yuan/ton, and the price of sub-electrical carbon has increased by 2,000 yuan/ton.
The agency believes that this round of lithium carbonate price increase is mainly driven by the downstream demand side. Since the second half of last year, the sales of new energy vehicles have increased month-on-month, and the demand for power batteries and lithium batteries has rebounded, which has led to a significant increase in lithium carbonate demand and rapid decline in industry inventories ,Capacity utilizationContinued to increase, seasonal supply exceeds demand, which in turn drives a low price rebound.
Northbound funds bucked the trend and bought “allocation-type” foreign-invested cyclical stocks
“Smart Money” Northbound funds once again bargained in early trading yesterday, and itsNet inflowCurve andMarket indexShows the opposite trend. Within half an hour after the opening of the market, the northbound funds showed a unilateral buying trend, and reached a peak at 10 o’clock in the morning. The net purchase amount once exceeded 5 billion yuan, which corresponds to the lowest point of the market index in the early trading. After that, as the index rebounded and the decline narrowed, the net purchases of northbound funds fell slightly, and the characteristics of high selling and low buying were obvious.
From the perspective of position holding style, the recent marginal increase in foreign investment is more favored by the financial and cyclical sectors.Guosheng Securities said last weekbank, Chemical industry andtrafficThe transportation industry’s net purchases of northbound funds are among the top, with net inflows of 3.426 billion yuan, 1.510 billion yuan and 891 million yuan respectively;food and drink, Household appliances andAutomobile industryThere were more net sales, with net outflows of 1.482 billion yuan, 1.470 billion yuan and 1.318 billion yuan respectively.From holdingsPositionIn terms of changes, northbound funds have recentlybankThe positions of the electronics and steel sectors increased more.
The development scale of the elderly care industry will exceed 10 trillion and more than 10 trillion listed companies will be deployed
PensionindustryIt is an important industry that has gradually developed along with the aging process.my countryPension industryHigh-income groups will soon be ushered in. The first batch of middle class born in the 60s has become aging, and they are showing brand-new characteristics and consumer demands. Some institutions predict that by 2022, the number of middle- and high-income elderly people will exceed 100 million, reaching a new high, which will further promote the consumption level and service demand of the elderly care industry.
With the acceleration of my country’s aging process, encourage old-age careIndustrial DevelopmentPolicies have been introduced intensively, and policy dividends are gradually being realized. However, the supply of elderly care institutions and beds in my country is in short supply.
According to the international standard of 5% (5% of the 60-year-old population enters pension institutions), my country currently needs at least 12 million beds. Currently, there are only 6.698 million beds for the elderly, which is a huge gap. From the perspective of A-share listed companies, many companies have already entered the pension industry.
During the year, brokerages accelerated the process of “blood replenishment” and refinancing reached 70 billion yuan
since this year,BrokerageThe enthusiasm for financing continues to rise,Huachuang Yangan、CITIC SecuritiesAfter five listed securities firms have successively launched refinancing plans, the total amount of funds raised by securities firms through refinancing reached 70 billion yuan during the year.Industry insiders pointed out that in the context of increasing saturation of the securities market and increasing competitive advantages of leading securities firms, small and medium-sized securities firms are accelerating their “blood replenishment”.DifferentiationThe direction of competition is transformed to seek new business growth points.
In the long term,Competitive differentiationOr become an important way for small and medium securities companies to achieve new growth. KPMG China stated that with the increasing saturation of the securities market, the core competitiveness of the future market will gradually shift to capital strength and resource reserves.At present, the concentration of the securities industry continues to increase and the degree of homogeneity continues to increase. Under the background that the top brokerages become stronger, the foreign brokers are “watching their eyes”, and the pressure of small and medium-sized brokers is heavy, brokers need to differentiate themselvesPositioning, Carrying out dislocation competition, looking for new growth points.Everbright SecuritiesIt also pointed out that the comprehensive strength of the top brokerage companies in various businesses is strong, and they can share the reform dividend to a greater extent, and their competitiveness is significantly better than that of the peers, while some specialty brokerage companies are expected to increase their market share through differentiated development.
Photovoltaic silicon price jumps, the price increase of the industry chain is not smoothly transmitted, and terminal demand is suppressed
Since March, the market for silicon materials has remained hot.At present, the industry and institutions generally predict that the silicon material in 2021supplyWill continue to be tight. Many organizations have pointed out that based on the production cycle, the actual new capacity of silicon materials this year is relatively small, and the production is mostly concentrated at the end of the year.
CITIC SecuritiesPointed out thatIndustry chainPrice increaseGameAfter the period, the transmission mechanism of component prices to the terminal power station was not smooth, and the terminal demand began to be suppressed to a certain extent, and the operating rate of related products around the component side also declined. After the price of the industry chain finds a new balance point, demand is expected to usher in release again, but the capacity utilization rate of key links still needs to be tracked in detail.
(Article Source:Oriental wealthResearch center)
(Editor in charge: DF150)
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