现在可以购买1.8万亿蒸发的“非出售”白酒吗？ _东方财富网

概括

[Canthe18trillionevaporating”notforsale”liquorbeboughtnow?Accordingtodatatheliquorsectorhasevaporated18trillionyuanintotalaftertheholidayofwhichtheMoutaifamilyhasevaporated8341billionyuanIsthereanyallocationvalueforbaijiuthathasbeenclearlyadjustedback?

Before the Spring Festival, askmarketWhich sector is the best? Baijiu is second. Maybe no one dares to call first. But after the Spring Festival, this “god-like” sector crashed down. Data shows that the liquor sector has evaporated 1.8 trillion yuan after the holiday, of which the Moutai family has evaporated 834.1 billion yuan.12 companies in the sectorthe companyIt has fallen by more than 20%, and some are on the verge of being cut in half. Is there any allocation value for baijiu that has been clearly adjusted back?

　　Liquor “not sold” before the holiday is on fire

Before the Spring Festival, there was a picture of the “Liquor Industry 2021 Annual Strategy” that blasted the circle of friends, and the strategy was “not sell”.

To be honest, this picture can be spread, and it has nothing to do with liquor at that time. Another aspect is that at that time, the baijiu became numb, and many people began to remove the dip from the baijiu options. The sense of identity in their hearts was also one of the reasons why the pictures were widely spread.

　　Sector IndexCumulative drop of 33%

But the capital market is really volatile. Just when everyone was immersed in the myth of liquor, the liquor sector collapsed suddenly.Oriental wealthChoice dataIt shows that the Shenwan liquor sector index (the same below) fell 4.05% on the first trading day after the holiday (February 18), which caught investors by surprise.

And when everyone thought the market would go back and forth, everyone didn’t knowPlummetIt has started. As of the close of March 9th, the liquor sector index has fallen by 32.6%. 9 of the 14 trading days have fallen by more than 1%, and 4 trading days have fallen by more than 5%, especially on February 22. , The sector index fell 7.82%.

A single-day drop of 7.82% is the sixth highest single-day drop since statistics are available. Among the trading days with a single-day drop of more than 7.82%, the most recent one was July 16, 2020, when the liquor sector index plummeted 8.81%. October 29, 2018 was the trading day with the largest decline in the liquor sector index, with the index plummeting 9.85% on that day.

　　12Stocks fell more than 20%, The largest drop of 42%

From the perspective of individual stocks, the 18 companies in the Shenwan liquor sector only haveHuangtai WineryYes, the remaining 17 companies have all fallen, 12 companies have fallen by more than 20%, and 5 companies have fallen by more than 30%.

The biggest drop isShanxi FenjiuAfter the holiday, the stock fell 41.85%, while the stock rose 387.08% in the Year of the Rat.Luzhou LaojiaoIt also fell more than 40%, and fell 40.38% after the holiday. The stock rose 284.69% in the Year of the Rat.

And the “share king”Kweichow MoutaiAfter the holiday, it also plummeted 25.53%, from the highest of 2627.88 yuan, all the way to the lowest of 1900.18 yuan in the day, almost fell to 1900, closing at 1936.99 yuan.

　　Total evaporationMarket value1.8Trillion

From the perspective of market value, after the Spring Festival, the entire liquor sector has evaporated 1.8 trillion yuan, of whichKweichow MoutaiOne family evaporated 834.1 billion yuan. In addition,Wuliangye、Luzhou Laojiao、Shanxi FenjiuwithYanghe sharesIt also evaporates more than 100 billion.

　　Sector valuation still exceeds 50Times

It has fallen so much, and the market value has evaporated by trillions. Can the current liquor be bought? For this question, we can take a look at the valuation level of the liquor sector.

　　Oriental wealthChoiceThe data shows that the current liquor sector’sP/E ratio(TTM, the same below) is 51 times, which is a significant drop from 71 times on the last trading day before the Spring Festival (February 10), but the current price-earnings ratio of 51 times still exceedsMedianA P/E ratio of 28 times is a lot.

In terms of individual stocks,Kweichow MoutaiThe latest price-earnings ratio is 55 times,WuliangyeThere are 49 times.And the highestDrunkard liquor90 times,Shanxi FenjiuThere are 84 times.

　　Liquor has entered the value range?

Although the valuation level of the liquor sector is still high, more and more people believe that the liquor sector is ready to be deployed after the obvious correction of liquor.

　　CICCIn the most recent oneResearch reportZhong said that after recent adjustments, most of the high-end leading and sub-high-end companies in China’s liquor have fallen in valuations this year. Combined with the industry growth rate and the deterministic growth trend in the next 3-5 years, the liquor sector has entered the value layout range, and the downside is limited. .According to the DCF model, most key companies are reasonable for this yearpriceThere is already 20% upside.

　　China SecuritiesRecently, it was also stated that the core reason for the adjustment of the liquor sector after the holiday was the long-term U.S. debt.interest rateThe upward trend has caused the valuation of core assets to be under pressure. It is not a fundamental factor. The fundamentals of liquor are still strong.Taking into account the low base of 20Q1, this year’s Q1 wine companies will welcome a beautiful startPerformance, After the adjustment, the valuation pressure is released and it is more cost-effective. The adjustment is a good buying opportunity.

In addition,China Merchants FundQuantifyinvestmentDeputy Director Hou Hao also expressed his opinion yesterday that the liquor sector has been adjusted recently, but companies with strong performance can digest the valuation through the continuous release of performance.enterpriseThere is no problem with the fundamentals of the company, and it still has a good configuration value over time.

　　Liquor stocks are difficult to recover in the short term?

However, many people believe that the recovery of the liquor sector is not optimistic.

Huachuang Securitiesfood and drinkResearcher Shen Hao said recently: “Before the Spring Festival, the liquor sector is raising news and strongMovable pinIt reached a new high under the catalysis, but the high valuation after the holiday was superimposed on the catalysis and disappeared, and the stock price is no longer sustainable. “

Shanghai FamilyPublic offeringFunding ResearchThe person also said that it is still unclear how long the liquor will be adjusted, but the person feels that the adjustment should not be in place at present, and it may fluctuate for a while.

In addition, Shenzhen Longhong Investment Management Co., Ltd.Company investmentDirector Tan Changgui also believes: “From a fundamental point of view, the performance of baijiu will surely rise steadily.monopolyStatus is a scarce resource, so you don’t have to worry about selling, but the trend process requires constant change of hands to wash away the “floating water”, and it is normal for some investors to cash out on the way. The valuation is now a bit high, and investors may change positions during the callback process. “

As the sector that has risen the most sharply in the past, and is also the sector that institutions are most keen to group together, after experiencing such a drop, do you think it is time for liquor to be bought?

(Article Source:Oriental wealthResearch center)

(Editor in charge: DF075)