概括
[What’sthetruthbehindthehighestdegreeofdifferentiationbetweentheNasdaqandtheDowin28years?】Investorsaremoreconfidentintheeconomicrecoveryhopingtobetonthesubjectoffundamentalimprovementthroughlarge-capstocksotherthantechnologystocksandgrowthstockswithmorereasonablevaluationsBetsonimprovingfundamentalsatreasonablepricesmaybethedrivingforcefortheDowtoreachnewhighsThisdivergenceoftrendsshowsthatinvestorsareturningtostocksthatarecloselyrelatedtotheeconomiccycle
In the intraday session on Monday,NasdaqThe trend of the 100 index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average diverged. While the Dow hit an intraday record high,NasdaqThe 100 index fell sharply, closing down 2.41%, and it fell nearly 10% from a high level recently. This range has always been regarded as a level of correction.
At 4 pm Eastern time on Monday, all but five of the 30 Dow stocks were higher.As of the close, Walt Disneythe companyThe stock rose 6.3% to lead the Dow. Visa Inc. ,Goldman SachsGroup and Home Depot Inc. Both rose by more than 2%.
at the same time,applethe company,Teslathe company,MicrosoftAnd Netflix Inc.The stock price fell during the session, makingNasdaqThe 100 index is under pressure. The same goes for those stocks that performed well during the epidemic.Zoom Video Communications Inc. Down nearly 8%, DocuSign Inc. It fell by about 6%.
This is the first time since 1993 that the Dow has set a record high and the Nasdaq 100 has fallen by nearly 10%.
01 The truth behind performance differentiation: growth stocks andValue stocksThe rotation between the plates?
Foreign media reports pointed out that thisIt reflects the plate rotation between growth stocks and value stocks.Mike Bailey, research director of FBB Capital Partners, said:
It feels like investors have adjusted their attitudes towards technology and growth stocks. Investors believe that these stocks have outperformed the market during the epidemic.priceToo high, now is the time to lower the valuation.
Investors are more confident in economic recovery,Hope to bet on fundamental improvement through large-cap stocks other than technology stocks and growth stocks with more reasonable valuationstheme。Bets on improving fundamentals at reasonable prices may be the driving force for the Dow to reach new highs.
This divergence of trends shows that investors are turning to stocks that are closely related to the economic cycle.
Accompanying the turmoil in the bond market and the 10-year U.S.National debtThe yield is approaching 1.6%, and the attractiveness of technology stocks has declined.This is because, from a structural point of view, highly valued stocks are not risk-freeinterest rateIs more sensitive to changes in the US stock market-US stock investors are accustomed to using the DCF valuation method, the core logic of the model is toenterpriseThe expected future cash flow discounts, the valuation given is based on the growth of cash flow, and the value of some growth stocks may have been overestimated before.
And as U.S. Treasury yields rise, there is no riskinterest rateWill suppress the valuation of companies, so growth stocks may experience a process of squeezing bubbles. This has caused pain to high-growth and high-value technology stocks.Some old daysWall StreetHottest stocksfundPerformanceThere has also been a slump, a typical example is the Ark innovation managed by Cathie WoodETF(Code: ARKK).
According to compiled data, the ETF has set the longest continuous decline since the market crash caused by the epidemic last year..As of 7:34 a.m. New York time on Monday, the fund had fallen 2.4%.productThe same goes down.Its heavy stocks includeTesla, Square Inc. And Teladoc Health Inc.
02 Wall Street, as always, sees more outlook
Despite investors’ high valuations andinterest rateThe rise is uncomfortable, but stock strategists are still bullish as always.
Goldman SachsAnd Credit Suisse strategists expect that as investors move fromBondWithdrawing funds from cash and cash and accelerating economic growth, stocks will be able to climb further.Goldman SachsSenior investment strategist Abby Joseph Cohen said that even if some stocks fall due to higher interest rates, other sectors will usher in strong gains.
Cohen said in an interview:
“We are seeing this very important change, and we have found that those stocks that have benefited from the end of the lockdown have performed well, and the good news about vaccines will help.”
Goldman SachsThe S&P 500 index is expected to reach 4,300 points by the end of this year, which means an increase of 13% compared to the current level, thus setting a new record high.
Goldman Sachs offered reasons to be bullish on stocks. Strategist David Kostin and other reports released on Friday said:
“Learning from history, when real interest rates rise,Stock fundUsually appearsCash flowInto. “
The bank’s forecast,Families will become the largest source of demand for U.S. stocks, It is estimated that the purchase scale this year is 350 billion U.S. dollars.Goldman Sachs said that withStock repurchaseThe tide is coming back, and the scale of corporate purchases will also reach 300 billion US dollars.
Credit SuisseAndrew Garthwaite also agreed with Goldman Sachs, pointing out that this is the beginning of the transfer of bond funds to stocks. He released a report on Monday that stock and bond yields were positively correlated in February, and when this happened in the past, the stock market rose by an average of 6% six months later:
“When the U.S. 10-year bond yield rises above 2%, inflation expectations exceed 3%, or inflationHedgeWe will be worried when bond yields rise sharply. “
Although at present, these conditions are still far from being realized,However, the bank insisted on the forecast that the MSCI global index excluding the United States will reach 375 points before the end of the year, which is 13% higher than today’s level.
JPMorganStrategist Mislav Matejka believes that the shift from technology stocks to cyclical stocks has not yet ended. Aviation, hotels and automobilessupplierAttractive, investors should consider shorting online retail and technology stocks.
According to CNBC, billionaire and top hedge fund manager David Tepper also said that it is difficult to bearish stocks right now and believes that the decline in U.S. Treasuries may be over. Tepper believes that an important market risk has been eliminated, and interest rates should become more stable in the short term.Another short-term bullish catalyst is the fiscal stimulus plan, which is likeAmazonSuch stocks are beginning to look attractive.Unless the unemployment rate plummets, it is expectedMidlandChu will not do anything until December.
Media surveyAnalystThe median forecast for the S&P 500 index at the end of the year is 4100 points, and the current level of the index is 3850.
(Source: Golden Ten Data)
(Editor in charge: DF532)
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