美国股票“ Pretty 50”的崩溃只是故事的一半！ 如何看待A股核心资产是否被高估？ _东方财富网

原标题：美国股票“ Pretty 50”的崩溃只是故事的一半！ 如何看待A股核心资产是否被高估？胡为涛：“好”比“贵”更重要

概括

[Thecollapseofthe”Beautiful50″intheUSstockmarketisonlyhalfofthestory!HowtolookatwhetherthecoreassetsofAsharesareovervalued?】Recentlythemarket’sdiscussiononwhethercoreassetsareovervaluedhasdominatedtheheadlinesofpublicopinionInHuWeitao’sviewthevaluationofcoreassetsisindeedhighcomparedtotenyearsagobutitisstillinareasonablerangeInthecontextoflowglobalinterestratescoreassetsareexpensiveandcoreassetsareovervaluedValueisalsothenormforalongtimeinthefuturesotheCSI300indexprice-earningsratioislessthan20timesbasicallywithoutconsideringtheissueofposition(BrokerChina)

“A lot of people want to make quick money, want to make huge profits, I joked that I also want to, but the difference between me and them is that I know I can’t.”

WanliFidelityChairman Hu Weitao is a private equity firm who has been in the business for more than 30 yearsfundThe manager is also a firm long-term holder of core assets, especially in the past ten years.Kweichow Moutai、Yili shares、China Merchants BankAnd other core asset stocks.

　　Recently,marketDiscussions about whether core assets are overvalued dominate the headlines of public opinion.In Hu Weitao’s view, the valuation of core assets is indeed high compared to ten years ago, but it is still in a reasonable range and is low globally.interest rateUnder the background of the current situation, there is a reason why core assets are expensive, and it is normal for core assets to be given high valuations for a long time in the future. Therefore,CSI 300indexP/E ratioBasically don’t need to consider below 20 timesPositionThe problem.

　　Look at its classic quotations:

The bursting of the beautiful 50 valuation bubble in the United States is only half of the story, and the other half of the story is that even if it was bought at the highest point in 1972 and held until now, most of the beautiful 50 stocks will make investors a lot of money.

Whether it is suitable for investment has nothing to do with being smart or not, but it depends on the management of desire, whether there is endurance, and those who know how to delay gratification have a big lead.

Many people will ask “How about next week, next month, and this year”, and they always spend their energy on things beyond their ability.

Don’t be afraid to pay tuition fees, one must be affordable, and the other must be worth it. But some people are scared when they think of paying tuition, and they dare not dare to feel that their investment fluctuates.In Munger’s words, one should accept it frankly if one is afraid of fluctuations.depositinterest rateIt’s a matter of character to only want to “get” and not to take risks.

　　The CSI 300 Index is valued below 20 times without considering the position issue

　　BrokerageChinese reporter: The market has recently discussed whether core assets are overvalued. As a long-term holder of core assets, how do you consider this issue?

　　Hu Weitao:First of all, from a historical perspective,Many people will value A shares in the past ten yearsMedianTo measure, it is judged that the valuation of core assets has bubbled, but the median of A shares in the past ten years is a conservative median, because the past ten years have basically been a bear market.Shanghai IndexRounding up and down around 3,000 points, the overall valuation lies below. If the bear market valuation is used as the median, it is too conservative.

　　Secondly, from an international perspective,Low in the worldinterest rateUnder the background, the valuation of the S&P 500 is 25 times all year round, and China’s economic growth is not weak, and the CSI 300 valuation is less than 20 times, and there is basically no need to consider the position.In the latest issue of Buffett’sshareholderIn his letter, Buffett also mentioned that the most recent 10-year period in the United StatesNational debtThe rate of return is 0.93% (note: data at the end of 2020), a decrease of 94% from 15.8% in 1986.even ifMidlandThe reserve has plans to recover liquidity in the near future, and the U.S. 10-year periodTreasury bond interest rateIt is only a marginal increase, and overall it will still maintain a low range. Valuation is the reciprocal of the risk-free interest rate. If calculated according to the 2% 10-year US Treasury bond interest rate, the stock market is valued at 50 times. Taking the risk premium into account, the reasonable valuation of the stock market is about 25 times.

　　Third, as a long-term investor,If we look at it with strict and demanding requirements, the stocks we like may be expensive. But my idea is not to invest for one year, but at least three, five, ten years, or even a lifetime.In this case, if you consider using one or two yearsPerformanceTo digest the valuation, I can earn more than three yearsenterpriseThe money for growth, if the money for the growth of the enterprise for more than three years is spread over five years, it is acceptable to lower my expectations.

　　The bursting of the “Pretty 50” bubble is only half the story

　　Brokerage China reporter: The valuation of core assets is at a high level, and market participants often mention the story of the bursting of the “Pretty 50” bubble in the US blue chip stocks in the 1970s. What do you think of this history?

　　Hu Weitao:The bursting of the “Pretty 50” bubble is only half of the story. In fact, if you hold the US “Pretty 50” at the highest point in 1972 to the present, most of the stocks will bring huge returns to the holders, such asDisneyThis is more than 200 times higher than the high in 1972. same,Texas Instruments、PfizerPharmaceuticals, etc.the companyThe average increase was amazing.However, there are alsoKodak、PolaroidWait for the star company to withdraw from the stage of history.

　　Brokerage China reporter: Many investors sold their holdings on the way, and could not handle the fall of the “Pretty 50”. The floating loss turned into a real loss?

　　Hu Weitao:Indeed, if you hold the “Pretty 50” until 1980 or 1984, you will suffer heavy losses, and some people may not be able to hold it, but if the holding cycle is lengthened, the benefits will be amazing.

That’s how we carried it.Kweichow MoutaiWe bought it in 2007 and we made a big bet in 2013Add warehouse. Whether a person is suitable for investment has nothing to do with being smart or not, but it depends on the management of desires, on whether there is patience, and those who know how to delay gratification have a big lead. Even if the highest point in 2007 is bought today,Kweichow MoutaiThe annualized income is still more than 20%.

　　Expensive or cheap depends on the investor’s perspective

　　Brokerage China reporter: How did you choose between “good” and “expensive”?

　　Hu Weitao:Good companies can resolve valuation. In investment, qualitative things are more important than quantitative. I also had a profound lesson, seven or eight years ago,Hengrui MedicineThe lowest valuation of is 36 times, I plan to buy if it falls below 30 times, but after five years,Hengrui MedicineThe valuation has risen all the way to 60 times, the stock price has risen 6 times, and nowHengrui MedicineThe valuation is 80 times, and the increase is even higher. In the past ten years, the valuation of Hengrui Medicine has rarely been less than 50 times.

When we understand that “good” is more important than “expensive”, we don’t miss it anymoreHaitian Flavor Industry，Haitian Flavor IndustryAs soon as it went public, we bought it without hesitation. For a few particularly high-quality companies, if we look far enough, it will not be expensive. Expensive and not expensive. In the past, I usually looked at it for five years, and now I look at it in the past ten years, and even look further, trying to improve my penetration of company research and understanding.

Expensive or cheap is inseparable from the perspective and ability of investors. Often many people think that the expensive ones are not necessarily really expensive, and that the cheap ones are not necessarily cheap. Sometimes, we think that it is expensive, either because the ability cannot see that far, or because the expected rate of return is too high.

From a human point of view, the valuation of a good company is usually hard to be too high.This is because most people look at what is in front of them and look at what is in front of them.variableGive a high weight and don’t want to wait. Just look at how good companies are valued very high, and good stocks are basically not overvalued.

In fact, long-term factors have a high weight in investment. We are willing to earn money slowly in long-lived companies, and eventually we will earn a little bit more. Time will give the answer. In investment, people always want to seize the best opportunities. Many people think they are too high and think they have a strong ability to seize the opportunities before them, but in the end, there are not many people who really have this ability.

(Source: Brokerage China)

(Editor in charge: DF358)