概括
[SecretaryoftheboardofdirectorsofSanyouChemical”handtears”GuotaiJunananalystsrefutedtherumorthat”sodaashproductionislimitedto30%”Whatarethefundamentalsofsodaashsupplyanddemand?】ThisSaturdaytwoscreenshotsof”CircleofFriends”filledtheweekendwithamouthfulofmelonsinvolvingthechemicalindustry:domesticviscosestaplefiberandsodaashdouble-leadingenterprises-SanyouChemicalBoardSecretaryLiuYinjiangKongkaiTongGuotaiJunanResearchInstituteChemicalGroup(FuturesDaily)
This Saturday, two screenshots of “Circle of Friends” stuffed a mouthful of melons for the friends who are spending the weekend, involving the chemical industry: domestic viscose staple fiber, soda ash double tapenterprise——Sanyou ChemicalSecretary of the Board of Directors Liu Yinjiang opened up in the airGuotai JunanResearch Institute Chemical Group.
Sanyou ChemicalSecretary of the Board of Directors angrilyGuotai JunanResearcher, refutes rumors that “the production of soda ash is limited to 30%”
Yesterday,Sanyou ChemicalSecretary of the Board Liu Yinjiang’s circle of friends is hardGuotai JunanThe screenshots of related researchers in the chemical engineering group have aroused widespread attention in the circle.
Of these two screenshots in Moments, one of them showsAnalystIn the 500-member chemical research group, it was released: “Suddenly: Tangshan environmental protection electricity curtailment has caused the production of soda ash, an important manufacturer, Tangshan Sanyou, to limit its production by 30%. Coupled with the recent maintenance of the southern alkali industry and other equipment, soda ash may be further strengthened in the near future.”
Another screenshot shows, “Zhongtai ChemicalThe cost of viscose staple fiber is 1,500 yuan/ton lower than that of Sanyou Chemical. “
Some market participants speculated that soda ash futures on Friday night tradingpriceWill the big increase be affected by news of restricted production?The screenshots show that the Secret of Dong was stubbornGuotai JunanThe researcher released relevant news at 23:31, which means that it is not just the people involved in the incident who spread the relevant news to the market. There are also media reports that, according to people familiar with the matter, the relevant data sources of the researcher in the incident were mainly from the database information he had purchased.
Securities Times ethe companyAccording to the report, Liu Yinjiang responded to the incident in an interview on March 6. He said that the company’s production and operation are normal, and there are no major issues that should be disclosed but not disclosed.
It is understood that soda ash and viscose staple fiber are the most important of Sanyou Chemicalproduct.Recently, Sanyou Chemical is acceptingResearchShi said that the recent soda ash market has been stable and strong, especially during the Spring Festival and the downstream market has been active, and industry inventories have fallen, and soda ash prices have begun to rebound.At present, the downstream glass production line continues to maintain a high level. The demand for photovoltaic glass will increase significantly this year. It is expected to be released in the second and third quarters, which will effectively stimulate the demand for soda ash. At the same time, the soda ash industry will basically Not addedCapacity releaseTherefore, the soda ash market is expected to stabilize and improve this year.
For viscose staple fiber, Sanyou ChemicalannouncementIt shows that since August last year, viscose staple fiber bottomed out and entered a new business cycle, especially after the Spring Festival, prices continued to rise.One issupplyAfter the last round of adjustments, production capacity has been gradually digested, and basically no new production capacity has been added. Second, as the epidemic has gradually been effectively controlled, downstream demand has resumed and the inventory replenishment cycle has entered.ExitDemand is improving; third, the downstream spunlace non-woven industry demand has increased significantly due to the epidemic, driving the gradual increase in the demand for viscose staple fiber; fourth, the overall strength of cotton, polyester staple and other textiles is increasing. Overall, the supply and demand pattern has effectively improved, and it is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upward in the future.
And in this incidentBrokerageThe content released by the analysts not only focuses on viscose staple fiber and soda ash, which are two important product sectors for Sanyou Chemical, but also involves the two major efforts of “cost” and “capacity” that are critical to the profitability of chemical companies. It can be said that they are all “bad” news for Sanyou Chemical. Market participants believe that this is also the main reason why the secretary of Sanyou Chemical is separated from each other.
As of the close of this Friday, Sanyou Chemical has closed at 11.76 yuan, with a total market value of 24.28 billion yuan. The company’s stock price has risen by more than 50% this year, but the recent stock price adjustment has dropped from a maximum of 16 yuan/share to 11.76 yuan/share, an adjustment rate of more than 25%.
What is the supply and demand situation of soda ash?
Since mid-January, soda ash futures prices have been rising all the way.Price fluctuationsIncreased, market divergence also increased, trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with before.Soda Ash Futures this WednesdayMain forceContract 2105 failed to hit the 2,000 yuan/ton mark and turned down, but it turned up again on Friday night trading, with a strong daily limit, leading the chemical sector.
It is understood that Sanyou Chemical is designated soda ashDeliveryOne of the factory’s warehouses, its recently disclosed investor relations activity records show that the current annual production capacity of the company’s main products: 3.4 million tons of soda ash, including 2.3 million tons of the headquarters, 1.1 million tons of Qinghai Wucai Caustic Soda Industry, and 780,000 tons of viscose staple fiber. ; 530,000 tons of caustic soda; 505,000 tons of PVC (including 70,000 tons of special resin); 200,000 tons of organic silicon monomer.
Analysts told the Futures Daily reporter that on the one hand, Sanyou Chemical’s secretary of the board unilaterally denied the news that the company’s soda ash production limit was 30%, but there is still no accurate information about whether the production limit is true. In recent years, Tangshan has indeed taken several actions such as environmental protection, production and power restrictions, which often involve steel mills, building materials, and electric power companies. On the other hand, even if a company of Sanyou Chemicals is really limited in its production, the scope and strength of its influence is relatively limited in terms of its soda ash output in the entire industry.
From the perspective of the current supply and demand fundamentals of the soda ash market, Founder Interim Futures believes that the concentrated replenishment of glass manufacturers before the Spring Festival will drive the stocks of soda ash to fall from a high level, creating the current round of soda ash price increases.During the Spring Festival, although the soda ash inventory has accumulated, but the magnitude is smaller than the same period in previous years, it is understood by the market asprofitable. It is worth noting that the supply and demand structure of soda ash in 2021 will shift from an oversupply to a shortfall. the first,real estateThe completion cycle continues, and the demand for heavy alkali for float glass is steadily rising. Second, the impact of the epidemic has subsided, and the demand for light alkali has resumed growth. Third, a large number of photovoltaic glass was put into production in the second half of the year, and the demand for heavy alkali increased significantly. Although soda ash futures prices have adjusted this week, the performance of the far month 2109 contract is stronger than the 2105 contract, indicating that the market has firm confidence in the improvement of the supply and demand situation of soda ash in the second half of the year.
doindustryResearch still needs to be steadfast and “satisfy” the industry
In this incident, the Secretary of Sanyou Chemical Industry expressed angrily that conducting research should be fair and objective, and maintain basic professional ethics. This is not the first case in which institutions have been angered by industrial companies in recent years.It is understood that in August last year, listed companiesMusic sharesChairman Xiang Lehong angered Ping An Asset Management in the circle of friendsfundManager, said, “I’m here to announce that Lege does not welcome fund managers from Ping An Asset Management to comeCompany investment, Young people don’t do their homework, the third and the fourth. “At one time, it caused widespread public concern. At that time, Le Hong said bluntly that some fund managers didn’t know anything about the company’s growth history.Field researchThe factory did not interview Lege employees and knew nothing about the continuous improvement of the company’s products and business structure.
According to people familiar with the matter, the relevant data source of the researcher in this incident was not first-hand research data, but from a data information platform. Some market participants feel that even if the data is purchased, corresponding verification work is essential. At the same time, this also reflects that some researchers have become more and more dependent on third-party data and information institutions in recent years.
According to the above-mentioned market participants, in the industrycommissionUnder the combined effect of factors such as decline and fierce competition in institutional customer research services, some brokerage research in particularResearch reportStarting to deviate from the origin of research, researchers are not alone in over-seeking speed, relying on consulting institutions, and insufficient research depth.
“To do industry research, we must first emphasize facts and focus on market research and investigation.” A seniorAgricultural productsThe researcher said. In his view, to do a good job in research is to “understand” the field of his research steadily. In addition to “office research”, “outdoor research” and market psychology research are also indispensable.
The above-mentioned market participants believe that to do research, it is necessary to always be in awe of the market and the facts, communicate with the spot information channels as soon as possible, and tap the value and identify risks with compliance and trustworthy, professional and practical research. According to him, in fact, many brokerage firms are also exploring the realization of closed-loop management of their own research business, and improving the quality of research in terms of research report professionalism, compliance, and dissemination.
(Source: Futures Daily)
(Editor in charge: DF318)
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