原标题：措手不及！ 一则消息导致上海镍公司倒闭，“钴王”也倒闭，其市值在两天内蒸发了超过200亿！ 到底是怎么回事？
概括
[Caughtoffguard!ApieceofnewsmadetheShanghainickelcollapse”CobaltLord”followedbythecollapseofwhathappened?】AftertheSpringFestivalthe”runaway”bulkcommoditymarkethasbecomelessbullishOnMarch5thepricesofvariousnon-ferrousandblackcommoditiesinthedomesticfuturesmarketfellandthemainShanghainickelcontractapproacheditslimit(Ecompany)
Masses that “run away” after the Spring FestivalProductThe bullishness of the market is getting weaker. On March 5, a variety of non-ferrous and black commodities in the domestic futures marketpriceDecline, Shanghai NickelMain forceThe contract even approached the lower limit for a while.
Shanghai nickel fell nearly 15% in two days
On March 5, non-ferrous and black commodities continued their downward trend in the futures market. Among the main contracts, Shanghai Nickel once dropped its limit during the session, but the decline has narrowed slightly since then, closing down by more than 8%, and the cumulative decline in the past two trading days has been nearly 15%. In addition, coke plunged 5.45%, and the cumulative two-day drop was more than 7%.
Analysts believe that this sharp drop in nickel prices is closely related to the impact of the news.
“On March 3, a blockbuster news was released on the market. Tsingshan Industrial Co., Ltd. andHuayou Cobalt、Zhongwei sharesSigned a high matte nickel supply agreement.The three parties jointly agreed that Tsingshan Industrial will start in October 2021Huayou CobaltSupply 60,000 tons of nickel matte toZhongwei sharesSupply 40,000 tons of nickel matte. As soon as this news came out, the main Shanghai nickel contract plunged 5.87% that day and night. “Business ClubAnalystLiu Meili said that before the market generally expected that the nickel wet process project will be pushed to the end of this year, the fire process project will take longer to land, Qingshan Industrial andHuayou Cobalt、Zhongwei sharesThe landing of the signing of the high matte supply agreement indicates the success of the Indonesian ferronickel-high matte process, which has greatly exceeded market expectations. Originally, new energy vehicles-nickel batteries-nickel sulfate is a new demand point for nickel, and everyone is very optimistic. Now it turns out that high matte nickel is made from nickel iron, and the cost of nickel iron-high matte nickel-nickel sulfate is roughly At 15,000 yuan/ton nickel, the average quotation of high-nickel iron is only 1180 yuan/nickel, while the average price of electro-nickel is about 132,200 yuan/ton. The economics of producing nickel sulfate with high matte nickel is better than that of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans. It is a competitive relationship with nickel, so the successful production test of high matte nickel has severely hit the nickel market, and nickel has fallen sharply.
Affected by the above news, Huayou Cobalt’s share price has also continued to plummet in the past two days. After the opening of the market on the 5th, Huayou Cobalt once hit the lower limit, and then the decline narrowed. As of the close, the limit was still lower, with a drop of 10%. In addition to the previous day’s lower limit, the market value of the stock has evaporated over 20 billion yuan in the past two trading days.
According to business agencyPrice monitoring, On the 4th, the spot price of nickel was 132,266.67 yuan/ton, down 5.28% from 139,633.33 yuan/ton on the previous trading day, and up 3.23% from the beginning of the year.Year-on-yearIncreased by 28.64%.
Baichuan Yingfu analyzes and believes that firstly, ferronickel has become surplus, and secondly, the process of producing high matte nickel from ferronickel will have a certain impact on the production of nickel sulfate from electrolytic nickel (with nickel beans).However, from the perspective of the production of ferronickel in Qingshan, this move is for the deployment of new energy.industryAnd speed up the transformation. Moreover, the cost of producing high matte nickel with ferronickel will increase, and it is unlikely that other companies will follow suit. Qingshan’s move means that the price gap between electrolytic nickel and ferronickel will continue to widen. The stage of speculating on the concept of new energy has temporarily fallen. The market will once again return to the fundamentals of nickel as a whole, or will enter the stage of wide-ranging consolidation.
Liu Meili also said that due to the impact of the Black Swan incident, nickel and stainless steel have fallen unanimously, but in fact, the actual impact of this incident is still half a year old, and there will be more uncertain factors in the future. In the first quarter, the Philippines was still in the rainy season, and nickel supply was still tight. The demand for downstream stainless steel has not been greatly affected. However, the Hei Tian’e incident will still put a certain pressure on nickel and stainless steel. In the early stage, nickel and stainless steel rose to historical highs.borrowThis opportunity will also cool down well, but under the support of the traditional peak season, it will not fall particularly badly. The price of nickel is expected to fall back to the price range of 120,000-130,000 yuan/ton, and the price of stainless steel will be around 13,000 yuan/ton. .
Procyclical logic still exists?
The non-ferrous and black products have dropped significantly after the previous surge. Does the pro-cyclical logic that have attracted much attention in the market still exist?
“2020 is a macro year. It is undeniable that the epidemic has had a great impact on economic and social life. However, since March, it has been around the resumption of work and production and easingcurrencyFiscal policy,Commodity marketIt started a wave of self-salvation and gradually transformed into a’bull market’ generally recognized by the market in October. In the context of’pro-cyclical’, commodities have become undervalued assets, and funds from all walks of life have been betting on the commodity market.International Investment BankGoldman SachsIn the “Top Ten Investment Themes of 2021” released by him, I think’CommodityWill usher in a new round of bull market in 2021′.Larger stimulus measures, dollar weakness and inflation risks areGoldman SachsThree main reasons for judging the arrival of a bull market in commodities. Liu Xinwei, an analyst at Zhuochuang, said that the transactions after March 2020 are smooth and smooth. The economy has bottomed out and the monetary policy is loose and active. It belongs to the macro year. The important thing is to choose the time. After entering 2021, the economy is still recovering. Among them, the monetary policy has begun to shift, and the macro year has turned into a medium year. From the analysis of current macroeconomic trends and monetary policy environment and other factors, the basis of the bull market has not fundamentally changed. The United States has 1.9 trillion yuan. The rescue plan is only awaiting the door;MidlandThe voice of the reserve doves still dominates, and the weak US dollar has not changed; inflation expectations are still strong, but the structural differences in different countries are more obvious; the inventory replenishment cycle will not fundamentally change in the first half of the year.Commodity priceGood expectations remain unchanged.
Xu Yang, Chairman of Shanghai McRong Information Consulting, accepts Securities Times·ethe companyThe reporter said in an interview that the reason for the recent sharp decline in non-ferrous products is thatMidlandThe degree of dovish savings was weaker than market expectations, the yields of U.S. long-term bonds rose sharply, the U.S. dollar index rebounded sharply, U.S. stocks plummeted, and commoditieslongEmotions have also cooled down significantly.In addition, the recent price increase has been too fast, and some metal spotPremiumTurning to a discount status, the downstream willingness to accept is obviously insufficient.The reasons for the nickel price correction also includeNon-ferrous metalsCurrent longPositionThe degree of congestion is high, and strong divergence occurs under high prices, and the intra-day volatility of market prices becomes larger.
this morning,MidlandIn his speech, President Powell mentioned that the recent fluctuations in the bond market have attracted his attention. It is expected that the resumption of work may boost inflation, but that is a temporary rebound. He said that if the financial environment continues to tighten, threatening to achieve the Fed’s inflation and employment targets, he will be worried. . Once the Fed takes action, U.S. long-term bond yields and the U.S. dollar index will resume their downward trend, and non-ferrous commodities will have a good opportunity to rebound.
In addition, Xu Yang proposed,Oil priceWhole bysupply, Demand, liquidity and other three factors, and the current trend is dominated by the current supply at the current time, and the demand is more uncertain. Under the background of the recovery of demand, the reduction of OPEC+ on the supply side is expected to continue to provide support for oil prices. Therefore, the upward cycle of this round of oil prices is far from over. For the real end of chemical price increases, it may be necessary to wait for the Fed’s monetary policy to shift.
Haitong SecuritiesInstitute FuturesSupervisorAccording to Gao Shang’s analysis, since the epidemic, the market’s standard Merrill Lynch clock has moved from a recovery to an overheating stage.profitableCommodity.On the one hand, due to the continued loose policy, the Fed’s over-issued currency led to the weakening of the U.S. dollar, superimposed on epidemic control, and further promoted the global economic recovery. On the other hand, the recovery of commodity supply lags behind due to the epidemic, and the peak spring demand season in the northern hemisphere has come with the US 1.9 trillion U.S. dollar stimulus, superimposed on the boost of renewable technology, the bull market of commodities continues. Judging from the commodity index (CCFI), it has surpassed the previous period of 2016 and 2017.Supply sideThe height of the commercial cattle brought by the reform. High inflation expectations are good for commodity prices.
(Article source: e company)
(Editor in charge: DF075)
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