发现下降的原因！ 美国债务的动荡又向北流出了资本。 是恐惧还是贪婪？ _东方财富网

原标题：发现下降的原因！ 美国债务风暴再次上升，北方资本流出。 是恐惧还是贪婪？

概括

[Thereasonforthedrophasbeenfound!TheUSdebtturmoilhasrenewedtheoutflowoffundsfromthenorthshoulditbefearorgreed?Industryinsidersbelievethattoday’sdeclineinA-shareswasaffectedbythehighcorrectionofinstitutionalstocksandtheoutflowofnorthboundfunds;ontheotherhandtheUSTreasuryinterestratesurgedagainovernightcausingglobalcoreassetpricestobeunderpressureFortheA-sharemarketoutlookwecanpayattentiontofundamentalreversalsignals(ChinaSecuritiesJournal)

March 4,The Shanghai Composite IndexBarely hold 3,500 points,Growth Enterprise Market IndexLost 2900 points. The industry sector generally fell, and the single-day net outflow of northbound funds hit a new high in the past year.

The industry believes that today’s decline in A-shares is due toCash flowImpact; on the other hand, overnight U.S. debtinterest rateSoaring again, leading to global core assetspriceUnder pressure.For the A-share market outlook, focus on the fundamentalsReversesignal.

　　Shanghai Index3500 points lost and recovered

On March 4, the three major A-share stock indexes opened lower and moved lower, and the Shanghai index recovered 3,500 points.Start a businessThe board index lost 2900 points. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.05% to 3503.49 points;Shenzhen Component IndexIt fell 3.46% to 14416.06 points; the GEM index fell nearly 5%, the largest daily decline during the year, at 2851.87 points.

Among the 28 Shenwan first-tier industries, the steel sector that led the early gains fell back to 1.79% at the close;Public utilities, The mining sector rose slightly, and the chemical industry, which rose sharply in the previous period,Non-ferrous metalsThere was a significant correction in the sector.The electrical equipment sector plummeted by nearly 6%. Last year, it rose nearly 6 times.SungrowToday plunged more than 15%, 100 billion white horse stocksTongwei sharesLimit,Ningde eraIt fell nearly 7%.

In the concept section,appleindustryThe chain plummeted, leading stocksLuxshare Precision、GoerTek、Pengding HoldingsThe declines were all over 5%. 15 concept stocks have fallen more than 10% this year. Some rare earth concept stocks bucked the trend and rose.Zhongke Sanhuan、Baotou SteelDaily limit,Jinli Permanent Magnet、Shenghe Resources、Ningbo Yunsheng、Zhenghai Magnetic MaterialsWaiting for individual stocks to follow the rise.

in spite ofmarketThere is a clear correction, but there are still more than 1,200 stocks rising today. From the perspective of transaction volume, the two cities have increased their volume today compared with the previous day, with a transaction volume of 972.04 billion yuan, approaching one trillion yuan again.

　　Three factors triggered a huge shock in A shares

What caused the market shock today? According to industry insiders, there are three main reasons:

　　First, the heavy stocks of institutions with high stock prices in the previous period continued to pull back, driving the index to fall.Data show that the A-share “Mao Index” fell 4.86% today.Yiwei Lithium EnergyFell 11.80%,Tongce MedicalLower limit,Longi shares、Wanhua ChemicalBoth fell more than 9%, and only 2 of the 41 constituent stocks rose slightly.

　　Everbright SecuritiesIt is believed that the current valuation of A-shares is at a relatively high level.Large-cap stocksThe valuations of sectors such as consumption and consumption are at historically high levels, and high valuation sectors continue to adjust after the Spring Festival. The current domestic economy continues to recover,PPIThe upward trend has been established, the margin of easing policies has been tightened, and the domestic economy andMarket environmentSimilar to the historical environment when A-share high and low valuations converged, the trend of A-share style switching and high and low valuation convergence will continue.

　　The second is to accelerate the withdrawal of northbound funds.The data shows that today’s net outflow of northbound funds reached 7.369 billion yuan, a record high in nearly one year since March 11, 2020.Shanghai Stock ConnectThe net outflow of funds was 2.218 billion yuan,Shenzhen Stock ConnectThe net outflow of funds was 5.151 billion yuan.The net outflow of northbound funds in the last five trading days has been significant.Net inflowThe total scale has fallen to less than 80 billion yuan.

　　The third is overnight U.S. debtinterest rateSoaring again.The data shows that on March 3, local time in the United States, the ten-year U.S. bondinterest rateIt rose sharply from 1.412% to 1.501%, an increase of nearly 0.09 percentage points. As of press time, the 10-year U.S. Treasury interest rate has fallen, but still reached 1.459%. Since the beginning of this year, the interest rate on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has risen by more than 0.5%.

Guosheng Securities believes that the current round of U.S. debt long-end interest rates may continue to rise in the short term, taking into accountMidlandChu’s “dovish” stance and increased tolerance for inflation,currencyPolicies will remain loose, and the probability of short-term interest rates following the long-term upward trend is low; after the second quarter, with the emergence of inflation and growth highs, long-term interest rates are expected to usher in a downward turning point, and the trend of widening term spreads will be reversed. .

　　Look for structural opportunities

For investors, should the market outlook continue to wait and see, or should the market “fall out” opportunities?

Kaiyuan Securities believes that the market style has been switched in all dimensions, and the “new consensus” of return to ROE is gradually being tested. Can be considered to be configured with real estate,Insurance、bank, Steel, mining,trafficTransportation, construction, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (breeding) as the representative of the market value sector.

　　Everbright SecuritiesIt is believed that the short-term A-shares will show a turbulent trend, and the possibility that the market will continue to fall sharply or continue to rise sharply is low, and it is more of a structural opportunity.

(Source: China Securities Journal)

(Editor in charge: DF075)