谁在一天之内引爆了1.4万亿股A股？ 工业和信息化部发布了沉重的信号，三大主线已经成形！ _东方财富网

原标题：一天飙升1.4万亿元，谁引爆了A股？ 工业和信息化部发布了沉重的信号，三大主线已经成形！ 即将出现两个主要的分歧信号，强周期危险吗？

概括

[WhodetonatedAsharesby14trillionaday?TheMinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnologyreleasesheavysignalsandthethreemainlinestakeshape!】OnMarch1astheexternalUSdebtstormweakenedthestockindexesofthetwocitiesusheredinareboundInearlytradingtherareearthsectorbrokeoutNorthernRareEarthBaotouIronandSteelCoLtdGuangshengNonferrousMetalsetcrosebythedailylimitandtheHongKongstockChinaRareEarthsurged20%RareearthpermanentmagnetearthbearandNingboYunshengrosesharplyInadditionsteelandsemiconductorsalsorosesharplyduringthesessionAsoftheclosethethreemajorstockindexeshavesurgedacrosstheboardandthetotalmarketvalueofAshareshassoaredby14trillionyuan(BrokerChina)

On March 1, as the external US debt storm weakened, the stock indexes of the two cities ushered in a rebound. In the morning, the rare earth plate broke out,Northern Rare Earth、Baotou Steel、Guangsheng NonferrousWait for the daily limit, Hong Kong stocksChina Rare EarthSoaring 20%.Rare earth permanent magnetEarth bear、Ningbo YunshengWait for a big rise. In addition, steel and semiconductors also saw a sharp rise in intraday trading. As of the close, the three major stock indexes have surged across the board, and the total market value of A-shares has soared by 1.4 trillion yuan.

From the perspective of news, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is the protagonist today.In the morning, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that rare earths did not sell “rare”price, Only sold the “earth” price, so that the rare earth sector soared across the board. Subsequently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a lot of information about steel and semiconductors, and related sectors also showed strong performance.

From the perspective of the overall market, today the market also rose more and fell less, with more than 3,600 stocks rising, and only 484 stocks fell. The group stocks that fell before also performed well.However, judging from the closing situation, the market has also seen two major deviations: one is that the market rebounded greatly, but the transaction has shrunk; the other is the domestic market.ProductMost futures markets closed down, but most stocks rose and were relatively strong.

So, has the US debt ceased? Is there still a play in the strong cycle? How long can the market be stable?

　　Who is the protagonist of the surge?

This Monday,The Shanghai Composite IndexIt closed at 3551.4 points, up 1.21%;Shenzhen Component IndexIt reported 14857.34 points, up 2.41%; the small and medium-sized index reported 13091.52 points, up 2.45%;Growth Enterprise Market IndexIt reported 2994.75 points, up 2.77%.

From the perspective of funding, the data shows that the northbound funds bought 3.786 billion yuan in net purchases throughout the day, ending three consecutive days of net selling;Shenzhen Stock ConnectNet purchases were 2.869 billion yuan. The turnover of the two cities throughout the day was 873.2 billion yuan, shrinking by more than 30 billion yuan from the previous day. This also formed the first divergence, that is, the market rose, but the transaction contracted.

From the perspective of the structure of the disk gains, although there is a general upswing pattern, there are also obvious main lines. Among the thematic industries, base metals rose 4%, and the transaction amount once again ranked first in the two cities.Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry、Mount Everest, Tibet、North Mine Technology、Grammy、Alloy investmentDaily limit.Jinli Permanent MagnetBy more than 10%,Zhenghai Magnetic Materials、Galactic magnetBoth rose nearly 9%.

On March 1, the State Information Office held a press conference, and Xiao Yaqing, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, said at the press conference,China Rare EarthWe did not sell the “sparse” price but sold the “soil” price because of vicious competition and competitive price reduction, which made this precious resource wasted. As soon as this statement came out, the rare earth sector rose sharply.Among them, the rare earth index soared by more than 8%, and Hong Kong stocksChina Rare EarthIt once soared by 20%, but fell back in the end.

At this press conference, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also pointed out that deepeningsupplySide structural reforms, coordinated to stabilize growth, adjust structure, promote transformation, and promote the continuous conversion of new and old momentum. Complete the “13th Five-Year Plan” two years ahead of schedulesteel industryThe target of 150 million tons of production capacity was reduced, and the “zombies”enterprise“The crude steel production capacity of 64.74 million tons. Strategically emergingindustryAccelerate development, quantum communication,BlockchainNew breakthroughs have been made in cutting-edge areas such as, virtual reality, and new energy vehicle production and sales have ranked first in the world for 6 consecutive years. In 2020, high-techmanufacturingAnd equipment manufacturing industry’s added valueIndustrial added valueAccounted for 15.1% and 33.7% respectively, becoming a leading driverIndustrial structureAn important force for optimization and upgrading.

Affected by this stimulus, the steel sector also ushered in a surge, with the steel index soaring nearly 4%.

Regarding chips, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also made a statement. Xiao Yaqing, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, said that there are several measures for the high-quality development of the chip industry.One is to increase enterprisesTax cutIntensity.Reduction and exemption for integrated circuit companies from the profitable yearcorporate income tax. The second is to further strengthen and upgrade the foundation.Chips involve more basic issues, including materials, processes, and equipment, and involve relatively longIndustry chain. Only by laying a solid foundation can the chip industry continue to innovate and develop. In addition, the integrated circuit industry itself also needs a good ecological environment, and it is very important to build a platform that can complement and support each other in the industry chain.

The chip sector also saw a unilateral rise.

　　Deviation appears

It’s worth noting that todayCommodity marketThere has been a certain departure from the performance of the stock market. Most domestic commodity futures markets closed down,appleThe limit was closed, down 6.01%, eggs fell 4.85%; basic metals fell generally, Shanghai tin fell by more than 3%, Shanghai copper, Shanghai aluminum, Shanghai nickel, and Shanghai lead fell by more than 2%; oils and oils rose and fell, and peanuts rose by more than 3 %, soybean oil and soybeans rose by more than 2%, rapeseed meal fell by more than 3%; Shanghai Bank fell by more than 2%, Shanghai Gold fell by more than 1%; No. 20 rubber and staple fiber fell more than 4%; energy futures diverged, with thermal coal rising by more than 3%, and low-sulfur fuel oil falling by more than 2%.

Among them, although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology releasedsteel industryHowever, the interpretation of the futures market does not seem to be the same as that of the stock market. The stock market rose across the board, while the futures market adjusted mostly.

At the same time, there has also been an interesting divergence between the performance of futures in the external market and the performance of treasury bonds.PeripheralCommodity futuresMost rose.

However, judging from the situation of the US 10-year Treasury bond yield, it has fallen sharply from the high level, and inflation expectations seem to be extinguished. Because of this, the external U.S. stock futures and European markets have performed well.

　　Cycle dangerous?

So, are cyclical stocks dangerous? Judging from the current situation, cyclical stocks may also experience greater differentiation. The overall performance of cyclical stocks may ultimately depend on the US dollar index. Judging from the recent situation, the US dollar index has launched a counterattack after falling below the 90 mark.

Second, it may still depend on the performance of US debt. After a period of tossing last week, U.S. Treasury yields have corrected somewhat. But this does not mean that there is no aftermath, or that there will be no new highs.Some institutions believe that the current 10-year US debtinterest rateThe phased lows of is likely to have already appeared at the beginning of this year. It is estimated that by the end of the year, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield still has 30-40bp upside, reaching about 1.7%.If actualinterest rateThe relative low point rises by 50bp, which will lead to a 25-60bp increase in U.S. stocks’ earnings yield, which is equivalent to a 5%-12% drop in U.S. stocks. As U.S. Treasury yields rise, the dollar index may rise, which in turn will suppress the space for commodities.

Judging from the domestic situation, it is currently in the period of the two sessions. Historically, the performance of the stock market during the two sessions was relatively stable, and relevant information will continue to be released. In this process, new main lines will continue to appear, so it may also produce an iterative effect of funds, that is, one hot spot covers another hot spot, the plate rotation speeds up, and the disk looks lively, but the opportunity is not easy to grasp. The strong cycle sector is also prone to shocks during this process.

(Article Source:BrokerageChina)

(Editor in charge: DF142)