原标题：重爆！ 拜登的12万亿刺激计划得到众议院的批准，而通货膨胀协议还在继续吗？ 高估值股票在发抖，A股呢？
概括
[Biden’s12trillionstimuluspackagewasapprovedbytheHouseofRepresentativestocontinueinflationarytrading?WhatabouthighvaluationstockstremblingAshares?SomeanalystssaidthatwithoutconsideringfutureperformancethemarketwillfluctuatewhentheUSbondyieldrisesto13%InconsiderationoffutureperformancetheriseinUSbondyieldsto175%willhaveagreaterimpactonUSstocksAtpresentthe10-yearUSTreasuryisinbetweenTheshort-termmarketvolatilityhasincreasedsignificantlyandmorefundswillflowtothebondmarkettoseekrisk-freereturnsThereispressureonstockmarketpricestoadjust(BrokerChina)
Foreign media reported that in the early morning of February 27, local time, the U.S. House of Representatives voted and approved US$1.9 trillion (approximatelyRMB12.3 trillion yuan) a new round of economic rescue plan.
In order to curb the spread of the epidemic and promote economic recovery, the Biden administration recently proposed a total of 1.9 trillion U.S. dollars in economic rescue plans, of which about 400 billion U.S. dollars will be used to fight the epidemic, and about 1 trillion U.S. dollars will be provided to American families affected by the epidemic. Economic relief, about 440 billion U.S. dollars is for small businesses struggling in the epidemicenterprise, State and local governments, etc. to provide assistance.
It is worth noting that after the House of Representatives passes, the relevant bill will be submitted to the Senate, which will usher in real challenges.
Market analysts believe that even without further fiscal stimulus, the U.S. economic rebound is already “ready to take off. If the economy restarts its own momentum and superimposes the effect of a new round of stimulus, the United States will raise aggregate demand to potential as early as the second quarter. Above the level, it is in sharp contrast to the history of “inadequate stimulation in 2009.” Therefore, the current round of inflationary pressure in the United States may also substantially exceed the level after the 2008 financial crisis.
The impact of “inflation trading” on the market is already very obvious, with inflation expectations increasing global assetspriceThe pricing basis of the US bond yields continue to soar, leading to large fluctuations in the global stock market, and A shares are not immune. If inflation rises further, the overall A-share market will become more turbulent.
Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan takes the first round tonight
On January 15th, Biden proposed the latest round of fiscal stimulus package totaling 1.9 trillion US dollars.GDPOf 9.1%.
According to Biden’s proposal, the main content of the stimulus plan may still be cash payments, unemployment benefits and other transfer payments. Including another direct payment of US$1,400 to low-income groups, together with the determined US$600, the total amount will reach US$2000; the weekly unemployment benefit will be increased to US$400, and the duration will be extended from the first quarter of this year to the first three quarters, etc.; Provide childcare subsidies to families with underage children; raise the minimum hourly wage; increase funding support for new crown testing and vaccination.
Unemployment assistance and unemployment in the previous U.S. rescue billInsuranceThe terms of the agreement will expire on March 14. The market expects that the U.S. Congress may discuss the latest round of stimulus plans in March; if things go well, it may be submitted to Biden for signature and approval in mid-March.
Judging from the current structure of American political parties, there is no surprise that Biden’s Democratic-controlled House of Representatives passed the stimulus package. The real challenge lies in the subsequent Senate.
The current ratio of the two parties in the Senate is 50:50. According to the general procedure, the stimulus package requires a super majority of votes, that is, 60 votes to pass. But the Democrats will use the budget settlement process-51 votes passed, and the Senate Speaker and Vice President Kalala Harris will cast a key vote to pass the plan.
But in the Senate, the existing stimulus package may face major changes. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office previously stated that the cost of the current program is slightly higher than the $1.889 trillion deficit cap set by the Senate and the House of Representatives for fiscal 2021. The bill must be cut before the expedited settlement process can be used. The first to bear the brunt is the provision of raising the minimum wage to $15 per hour.
On Thursday, the independent arbitrator of the Senate responsible for interpreting the statutes has ruled that Democrats cannot include the $15 per hour minimum wage in the $1.9 trillion new crown relief package. This means that an increase in the minimum wage requires the support of both parties in the Senate.
Stimulus packageWall StreetStrong support
In the letter to the top U.S. Congress released last Wednesday, more than 160the companyCEO expressed his support for the US$1.9 trillion aid plan proposed by US President Biden. The companies involved includeGoldman Sachs,Google,Intel、AT&T、BlackRock、MasterCard、Morgan StanleyWait.
The CEOs called on the government to “immediately enact large-scale federal legislation” to deal with the impact of the epidemic. They stated in the letter: “Congress should act quickly on the basis of bipartisan cooperation and approve a fiscal stimulus and economic aid plan in accordance with the aid plan proposed by President Biden.”
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said of the letter at a news conference on Wednesday: “As more than 160 business leaders wrote in letters to the top congressional leaders, previous government assistance Measures are crucial, and more aid measures are needed to put the United States on a strong and lasting recovery path.”
Business leaders in the United States stated in their letter that compared with the beginning of the epidemic, there are now more than 10 million fewer jobs in the United States. Small businesses across the country are facing bankruptcy and it is difficult for schools to reopen. The most vulnerable groups in the United States, including women, people of color, and low-paid workers, are experiencing the worst of the epidemic. They face unprecedented problems such as unemployment, burden of parenting, and food insecurity. States and localities have also been overwhelmed by the loss of expenditure and income related to the epidemic.
Biden’s assistance program provides a framework to coordinatePublic SectorAnd the efforts of the private sector to jointly defeat the new crown epidemic and push the United States towardsInclusive growthNew era. Our business community is willing to cooperate with Congress to achieve these key goals together.
In addition, polls show that most Americans are also looking forward to Biden’s stimulus plan.
According to the latest poll of 2013 American voters conducted by Morning Consult and Politico, most Republicans and voters expressed support for Biden’s plan.
Among the polled voters, 76% expressed strong support or relatively support for the plan, and only 17% expressed strong or relatively opposed to the plan; and among the polled Republicans, 60% of Republicans expressed strong support Support or relatively support the plan, 30% of Republicans expressed strong or relatively opposed to the plan.
There is no doubt that the Democratic Party has a higher support rate for the plan, with nearly 90% of Democrats expressing support for the plan.
“Inflation” or exceed expectations, “high valuation” stocks tremble
If the US’s strong economic stimulus plan is implemented, it will have a significant impact on the global capital market.
Huatai SecuritiesIt was pointed out that even without further fiscal stimulus, the U.S. economic rebound was already “ready to take off”-given the US$1.6 trillion “surplus” accumulated by U.S. residents after multiple rounds of stimulus.Savings“It is bound to be converted into optional consumption, especially service consumption expenditure, in the context of the parallel acceleration of vaccine advancement and economic restart.
For example, the effect of a new round of stimulus is superimposed on the economic restarting its own momentum, and the US GDP is expectedYoYGrowth will return to potential growth in the second quarter of this year. More importantly, GDP may return to potential levels between the second and fourth quarters of 2021, after which total demand may exceed potential output.
Even under the most modest assumption of an additional $700 billion in stimulus, US inflationary pressures may be significantly higher than the market’s already high expectations.
Since the US fiscal stimulus volume this year may raise aggregate demand above the potential level as early as the second quarter, which is in sharp contrast to the history of “insufficient stimulus” in 2009, the current round of inflationary pressure in the US may also substantially exceed 2008. The level after the financial crisis in 2016.
Huatai SecuritiesBased on this, it is believed that, relative to potential inflationary pressures, the market’s vigilance towards “inflation” still needs to be improved, partly because of the late “absence” of inflation after the financial crisis. The inflationary pressures this time are quite different from those twelve years ago.
MidlandChu’s dovish stance may lengthen the cycle of rising inflation. If inflation expectations develop in the expected direction and the policy is not adjusted in time, it may cause market concerns about future policy tightening and economic growth.ChangheThe price volatility of risky assets will increase.
In fact, “re-inflation trading” has already made some investors miserable. Due to the strengthening of the US economic recovery and re-inflation expectations, U.S. Treasury yields have risen sharply recently, and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields once soared above 1.6%.
U.S. Treasury yields are rising rapidlyShock waveIncrease,Global stock marketThere was a sound of “fall” on Friday. On the same day, the Dow fell 469.6 points, a decrease of 1.5%. The S&P 500 index fell 0.5%, and the Nasdaq rose nearly 1.9% at one time, but the late gains narrowed to 0.6% to 13192.3 points.
In the Asia-Pacific market on the 26th, the Nikkei 225 index pierced 29,000 points and closed down 3.99%, the biggest one-day drop since April 1, 2020. South Korea’s KLCI closed down 2.80%, the biggest one-day drop in the past six months. In the European market, the benchmark stock indexes of Britain, France, Germany and other countries fell between 0.67% and 2.53%.
Since stock market valuations were at historically high levels before, the market wasinterest rateThe marginal changes of the U.S. long-term debtinterest rateThe uplift has strongly disturbed market sentiment, and some highly valued stocks have been “slaughtered.”
In U.S. stocks,TeslaIt has fallen to 675.5 US dollars from the high of 900 US dollars at the beginning of the year, a drop of nearly 25%.
AmazonThe callback rate of the year is also close to 10%.
In the A-share market,Kweichow MoutaiFrom a high of 2627.88, it fell to 2122.78 yuan per share.
Some analysts say that without considering the futurePerformanceUnder circumstances, the market will fluctuate when the U.S. Treasury yield rises to 1.3%. In consideration of future performance, the rise in U.S. bond yields to 1.75% will have a greater impact on U.S. stocks.At present, the 10-year U.S. Treasury is in the middle of the two, the short-term market volatility has significantly increased, and more funds will flow to the bond market to seek risk-free returns, and there is pressure on stock market prices to adjust
“The current 1.5% 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is roughly the same as the dividend yield of the S&P 500 Index. If U.S. Treasuriesinterest rateContinuing the rapid upward trend, the volatility of US stocks may further increase. Cinda SecuritiesAnalystLi Yishuang pointed out that, therefore,MidlandChu may also be paying close attentionInterest rate levelIn the context of the significant expansion of term spreads, if the current momentum continues, we believeMidlandReserve may release to increase long-end purchasesBondSignal to curb the rate of rise in interest rates.
Galaxy Securities pointed out that from the perspective of the price-performance ratio of stocks and bonds, rising interest rates will cause the stock market valuation to be under pressure.company achievements. Although the current general environment will not lead to the complete collapse of market confidence, increased volatility is inevitable. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on fundamental advantages and valuation attractiveness when configuring. For example, the fundamentals benefiting from the improvement of the epidemic and overseas economic recovery are more certain than the improvement. Or the adjusted valuation has a certain safety mat.
(Article Source:BrokerageChina)
(Editor in charge: DF398)
Solemnly declare: The purpose of this information released by Oriental Fortune.com is to spread more information and has nothing to do with this stand.