贵州茅台的65倍调整市盈率是否合理？ _东方财富网

原标题：贵州茅台调整后的65倍市盈率是否合理？

概括

[IsKweichowMoutai’sadjustedP/Eratioof65timesreasonable?】RecallingthesituationofothergoodcompaniesbuyingathighpositionsinthepastChinaMerchantsBank(600036SH)VankeA(000002SZ)andotherleadingstocksinthebullmarketin2007didnotbreakthroughthehighpositionsoftheyearuntil2017Fewerinvestorsneedtowait10yearspatiently(ChinaBusinessNews)

Greatthe companyCan it be goodpriceBuy, often valueinvestmentThe key to success.Judging from the stock price fluctuations of some good companies in the past, once investors chase in at a high position, it will take 5 years to “unwind” quickly, and 15 years or more slowly. This kind of time opportunitycost, Not every investor can afford it.

The cumulative stock price adjustment is about 15%. Have the current liquor stocks returned to a reasonable valuation range?Leading stocksKweichow Moutai(600519.SH) look,P/E ratioStill more than 65 times (TTM), 2020’sNet profitThe growth rate is 10%, which is the same as before 2017Net profit(Earnings per shareThe situation is similar) The growth rate of more than 60% is not the same.

On the morning of February 23,Kweichow MoutaiAn increase of 1.62%, to close at 2,324.99 yuan.

Compared with the stock price highs in 2007 and 2012, the current valuation of baijiu faucet is still at the same level as the 2007 high.profitThe growth rate is far lower than that of the year.

January 5, 2021Kweichow MoutaiannouncementAccording to the report, in 2020, it will produce 50,000 tons of Moutai base liquor and 25,000 tons of series base liquor; it is expected to achieve a total operating income of about 97.7 billion yuan.YoYAn increase of about 10%, of whichWholly-owned subsidiaryMarketing of Kweichow Moutai Maotai LiquorLimited companyIt is estimated that the total operating income will be about 9.4 billion yuan (including taxSales(About 10.6 billion yuan); expected to be attributable to listed companiesshareholderThe net profit of about 45.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 10%.

In 2007, Kweichow Moutai belonged to the companyshareholderThe net profit of 2.883 billion yuan, an increase of 81.39%, the earnings per share reached 3.05 yuan, an increase of 82%. In July 2012, nearly five years later, Kweichow Moutai broke the 2007 high and reached a record high of 266 yuan (Ex-rightPrice), roughly one-tenth of February 18, 2021. Kweichow Moutai achieved a net profit of 8.763 billion yuan in 2011, a year-on-year increase of 73.49%, and a basic earnings per share of 8.44 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.3%.

The key factor that Moutai can break through the 2007 high in five years is not from the increase in valuation, but from the nearly doubling of its earnings per share within four years; and from the 2012 high to February 2021, the stock price in the past nine years An increase of 9 times, of which about 3 times comes from earnings per share, and about 3 times comes from valuation increases.

However, the profit growth rate of Kweichow Moutai from 2018 is no longer what it used to be. From 2017 to 2020, Kweichow Moutai’s earnings per share were 21.56 yuan, 28.02 yuan, 32.8 yuan and 36 yuan. The growth rate of earnings per share in the past three years was 30%, 17%, and 10%, respectively, showing a downward trend year by year. This growth rate is no longer the same as the rapid growth before 2017.

In 2017, Kweichow Moutai earned RMB 21.56 per share, a year-on-year growth rate still reaching 62%.

Because there is no increase andRepurchaseIn recent years, Kweichow Moutai’s earnings per share have basically not changed. From the perspective of the price-earnings ratio, the current adjusted Kweichow Moutai is still 65 times, which is comparable to the 2007 level and much higher than the 2012 high of less than 35 times.

every timemarketThere is always an end to the fanaticism. If an investor who buys Kweichow Moutai at a high level of more than 2500 yuan, can it be similar to the high level of 2007, and achieve “unwinding” in a shorter period of time? Judging from the growth rate of Kweichow Moutai’s earnings per share, there is still a certain bubble in the current adjusted stock price. Investors should make a rational judgment on whether it is still a “boss” stage.

In terms of technical trends, a single day with two Yinxian lines on February 18 and February 22DealThe amount is higher than the one-day turnover of Kweichow Moutai at the last crazy stage of the stock price at the beginning of the year. This also shows signs of loosening of institutional groups. Investors should be wary of this.

Looking back at the situation of other good companies buying at high positions in the past,China Merchants Bank(600036.SH)、Vanke A(000002.SZ) and other leading stocks in the bull market in 2007 did not break through the highs of the year until 2017, and many investors need to wait 10 years patiently.Indeed, because some investors could not wait so long, Guo Shuqing, then chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, publicly declared in 2012Blue chipsBefore and after there was investment value, I had already missed the subsequent increase because of abandonment; after the dot-com bubble in 2000,Microsoft(MSFT) and other companies also broke through the high share price of the year after 15 years.

(Article source: China Business News)

(Editor in charge: DF070)