概括
[NewYearoftheOxencountersWaterlooliquorstocks”candrinkacupofnothing”?】TheYearoftheOxstartedandtheA-shareliquorsectorsufferedheavylossesThestrongsituationofnewhighsbeforetheSpringFestivalwasbrokenandtheoverallsectorfluctuateddownwardKweichowMoutaifellbymorethan12%inthethreetradingdaysaftertheholidayYesterdayitwasthelargestone-daydropof699%inthepastsixmonthsMarketconsensusonMoutaiandliquorstocksbegantodiverge(SecuritiesTimes)
At the beginning of the Year of the Ox, the A-share liquor sector suffered heavy losses. The strong situation of new highs before the Spring Festival was broken, and the sector as a whole fluctuated downward.Kweichow MoutaiThe three trading days after the holiday fell by more than 12%, and yesterday it was the largest one-day drop of 6.99% in the past six months. The market’s consensus on Moutai and liquor stocks began to diverge.
As the most concerned and most controversial A-share sector, and also one of the sectors with the highest yields in recent years, what is the current valuation level of liquor stocks? What is the future investment value? The investment seminar sponsored by the Securities Times·China Capital Market Research Institute recently invited authoritative experts in the industry to analyze the investment logic of liquor stocks and discuss its future investment value for readers.
Liquor “Flying”
Since January 2021, high-end liquor stocks have ushered in a “dream start”.Kweichow MoutaiIt has risen by more than 20%, and its total market value once exceeded 3 trillion yuan.BrokerageThe target price has been raised one after another, with the highest target price being 3,000 yuan.Wuliangye、Luzhou LaojiaoOther high- and middle-end liquors are also favored by institutions.
PerformanceOn the one hand, there are currently 11 liquors listed in the two citiesthe companyReleased 2020 performance forecast or production and operation statusannouncement, 8 companies are expected to increase their performance.Kweichow MoutaiEstimated revenue andNet profitRespectively, 97.7 billion yuan and 45.5 billion yuan,YoYThe growth rate is about 10%.WuliangyeNet profitPre-increased by about 14%,Luzhou LaojiaonetprofitWith an estimated increase of over 20%, the high-end liquor under the epidemic continued its previous performance growth trend. Among the other liquor companies,Alcoholic liquorThe performance is expected to increase by over 50%, leading the growth.
GF Securitiesfood and drinkThe industry’s 2021 annual strategy report pointed out that the current liquor industry has entered a mature period and investment opportunities come from structural trends. Consumption upgrades, increased concentration, and sauce-flavored wine expansion are the three major trend opportunities in the future liquor industry.
Huachuang Securitiesfood and drinkThe industry’s 2021 annual strategy report believes that after the second quarter of last year, the risks of liquor channels have been fully digested, and demand has accelerated to recover.The impact of the epidemic has accelerated the reshuffle of the industry, leaving market space for old wines and a few featuresBrand。
Liquor stock investment logic
From a long-term perspective, the liquor index has risen by more than 700% since 2014, and all other years have recorded a rise except for the correction in 2018. The liquor sector is rare in A-shares and has stepped out of the enviable long bull Quotes.
At the recent Securities Times internal investment seminar,China Merchants SecuritiesManaging Director of R&D Center, New Fortunefood and drinkgold medalAnalystZhu Weihua said that the fundamental reason for the prosperity of liquor stocks is liquidity. In the first half of 2020,MidlandIn response to the epidemic, the reserve adopted quantitative easingcurrencyPolicies have pushed global macro liquidity to a highly accommodative level. Liquor stocks have become high-quality targets in a loose environment due to their relatively high income elasticity. Under the influence of liquidity, the liquor industry has the characteristics of “everything is prosperous, and everything is lost”, so it should continue to hold, and always pay attention to whether there are major changes in liquidity.
Zhu Weihua believes that the price increase of Moutai has opened up the entire liquor industry.priceLevel, enriches the pricing range of liquor, and helps meet different consumption scenarios such as business banquets, daily gatherings, and family meals. From the perspective of consumption scenarios, business consumption constitutes the main demand for ultra-high-end and mid-to-high-end, and the price of ultra-high-end liquor precedes the volume; the growth point of mid-to-high-end liquor mainly depends on volume increase and structural upgrading. The strength of market loyalty in other provinces depends on the strength of marketing and channels; the middle and low-end wines are deeply cultivated in this province, and the development of the regional economy has fully recovered the middle and low-end real estate wines; while the lowest-end wines are the national large-scale circulation model.
The historical accumulation of the brand helps build high-endproduct, Increase profit margins, and theBrand loyaltyHigher and more conduciveenterpriseAcross the cycle, so from the perspective of long-term holding, mid-to-high-end and above brands willpopular brandOf liquor stocks have a higher return on investment.
Three major market disputes
With the rise of Kweichow Moutai as the largest market value leader in the two cities, the market’s controversy over its valuation and rising logic has not been interrupted.On the consumer side, due to the huge difference between the ex-factory price and the retail price over the years, a group of grays that hoard and resell Moutai have been cultivated.industryThe chain, which also raises questions such as “wine is for drinking, not for stir-frying, and not for corruption.”
Controversy 1: Market valuation. After several consecutive years of liquor bull market, the current rolling price-earnings ratio of Maowulu is around 70 times, which is relatively high in history. In this regard, Zhu Weihua believes that the positioning of the P/E ratio is mainly determined by liquidity. Although Mao Wulu and other top liquor companies are comparable in valuation to 2007, they still have an advantage in valuation compared to top companies in other industries. What’s more, liquor companies are profitable, grow steadily and rapidly, and have strong cash flow. High valuations can be resolved over time.
Controversy 2: Organizations hold group. Liquor stocks are the main camp of “organization heavy warehouses.”fundThe annual report shows that Shigekura holds Kweichow Moutai,WuliangyewithLuzhou LaojiaoThe number of funds was as high as 1665 and 1322, respectively, taking the top and second place in the number of A-share funds. Recently, as the stock price of liquor stocks has been rising, some of the group funds have shown signs of loosening. Kweichow Moutai has encountered a reduction in holdings of large overseas funds.Northward capitalContinue to flee the consumer sector.
Previously, the “Capital Market Has No Permanentmotivation“The article analyzes and warns the phenomenon of institutional grouping of market concerns.China Merchants SecuritiesThe analysis believes that the main reason for the emergence of Baotuan is that institutional investors have regular performance appraisal mechanisms, ranking pressures, product issuance operation mechanisms and similar value investment concepts. As a result, institutional investors will always identify the sectors with the highest performance growth and gradually adjust them. To centralized shareholding.
Zhang Yifan, chairman of Shenzhen Dohomme Investment Consulting Co., Ltd., believes that it is normal for institutions to group high-quality stocks. The star stocks in US stocksAmazonThe high performance of stock prices such as Facebook, Facebook, etc. cannot be separated from the contribution of institutional holdings. Such holdings are not intentional, but the natural selection of high-quality assets by market funds. There is no need to panic about the phenomenon of holdings.
Controversy 3: Whether young people drink. Since last year, “whether young people drink Moutai” has repeatedly become the focus of the market. Zhu Weihua believes that liquor has strong social attributes, which is an application scenario that just needs to exist and there is currently no better alternative product. Although high-end wines have been replaced in some occasions, their cultural roots are in France. Wines have multiple differentiated characteristics such as brand, production area, grape variety, and vintage. The threshold for consumers to judge its value has been greatly increased, and it cannot be compared with white wine. . As China’s ageing intensifies, the demand for liquor will decrease accordingly, but the consumption structure will show an upward trend of “the more you drink, the more expensive you drink”.Fromproduct propertiesFrom the above point of view, the more aged liquor is, the more valuable it is stored, and it is very suitable for making luxury goods, especially Moutai has become a high-level social “symbol” with Chinese characteristics. Young people may not have much exposure to liquor before, and when they enter the workplace, they will be driven to join the consumer group.
The “Insight Report on the Digital Development of Liquor Industry in 2019” released by Tencent shows that liquor is still the mainstream choice for formal occasions; the “2020 Youth Group Drinking Consumption Insight Report” released by CBNData shows that domestic liquor is still young (post-90/95) The first category of online beverage consumption is also the category with the highest growth rate of online beverage consumption.
(Source: Securities Times)
(Editor in charge: DF520)
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