抱团股票在牛年仅动摇了两个交易日，A股的风向发生了变化？ _东方财富网

概括

[BaotuanstocksareshakinguponlytwotradingdaysintheYearoftheOxandthewinddirectionofAshareshaschanged?】TheLunarNewYearoftheOxhasjustpassedtwotradingdaysbutitiscompletelydifferentfromthemarketbeforetheSpringFestivalThestyleoftheA-sharemarkethasundergonecertainchanges:thebluechipofthemarkethaspulledbackfromthehighandthesmallandmediummarketvaluestockshavebeguntoriseatthebottomInthisregardinstitutionalanalysisbelievesthattheessenceofmarketdivergenceisthedeclineininvestors’toleranceformarginalrisesindiscountratesunderhighvaluationholdingsbutitdoesnotmeanthatthe”grouping”marketendshereFromtheperspectiveofvaluationandcostperformanceandobtainingexcessreturnsunderthestimulusoffactorssuchastheexpectedresonanceoftheglobaleconomicrecoveryandtheopeningoftherestockingcycletherearestillopportunitiesinthesegmentedareasoftheprocyclicalsector(ShanghaiSecuritiesNews)

The Lunar New Year of the Ox has just passed two trading days, but it is completely different from the market before the Spring Festival. A sharesmarketThere has been a certain change in style: blue chips in the market have a high callback, small and mediumMarket valueStocks startbottomPull up。

In this regard, institutional analysis believes that the essence of market divergence isinvestmentHigh valuationPositionThe decline in tolerance for marginal rises in the discount rate does not mean that the “grouping” market ends here. From the perspective of valuation and cost performance and obtaining excess returns, under the stimulus of factors such as the expected resonance of the global economic recovery and the opening of the restocking cycle, there are still opportunities in the segmented areas of the procyclical sector.

　　How long will the adjustment of Baotuan stocks last?

Judging from the ups and downs this week, in terms of mining,Non-ferrous metalsThe traditional cycle sector represented by it has outstanding performance, while household appliances,food and drink, Electrical equipment, medical and biological, and other high-level sectors that were concentrated in the early stage of funding have seen a correction. At the same time, the index trend diverged,Growth Enterprise Market IndexIt fell for two consecutive trading days.

In addition, despite the volatility of the index, the number of rising stocks in the market far exceeds the number of falling stocks, and the effect of making money is better. Only a few groups of stocks in the market have risen in the “28-eight differentiation” phenomenon.

　　Guotai JunanStrategyteamSaid that the essence of the market divergence is the decline of investors’ tolerance for marginal rises in discount rates under high valuation holdings, but it does not mean that the market ends here. Although there have been signs of rebalancing in the market for large and small cap stocks in the past two trading days, they are more of a defensive strategy under the callback of high-value blue chips, and there is no momentum for continuous switching at the moment.From the perspective of profitability and valuation, the small market valuethe companyThere are odds but a lower win rate, that is, the valuation is low, but the profit is still not significantimprove。

The strategy team of Yuekai Securities reviewed the historical Baotuan market in 2007 and 2017, and believes that the complete collapse of the Baotuan market is often accompanied by a weakening of the macro economy and a significant tightening of liquidity. From the perspective of fundamentals, policy and liquidity, the Baotuan market does not yet have the basis for collapse.

　　Soochow SecuritiesSimilarly, the domesticfundThe scale of new issuance is still relatively high, and the risk appetite for overseas funds has increased. The scale of funds to be marketed is huge and sufficientMarket liquidityWill promote the pattern of slow growth in A shares. As the margin of new fund launches decreases, the extreme differentiation of the market will continue to ease, but the overall grouping style will not change.

　　Institution: A shares will have a new high

　　Guotai JunanSecurities believes that the global epidemic has accelerated and domestic service consumption has begun to recover.ProductWith the stocks still in a phase of upward resonance, the A-share market will have a new high.

but,Guotai JunanSecurities emphasized that stocks under crowded trading and high valuations will be equally sensitive to tightening liquidity and changes in discount rates, and the road to new index highs will not be achieved overnight.

The general trend of Yuekai Securities is also relatively optimistic. Its strategy team saidStart a businessThe board continued to lead the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes upward in the previous market, and the valuation center moved upward as a whole. This superimposed the loosening of the previous concentrated holding of high-position stocks, and the relatively high-level index faced a certain shock and consolidation demand.The Shanghai Composite IndexOn the other hand, after breaking through 3700 points, although the probability of short-term shocks has increased, after breaking through the platform resistance level, the market has opened up room for upwards, and the follow-up is still expected to move towards the 4,000-point area of ​​the platform high in August 2015.

　　CITIC SecuritiesQiu Xiang’s strategy team said that whether it’s the headproductAverage asset size, orPublic offeringThe overall holding of A shares in the free float market is measured, and it is still more specific to the concentration of public offering holdings of individual stocks, 2020Raised fundsIn fact, the group concentration of Shigekura varieties is far below the level of 2007.

In addition,CITIC SecuritiesThink that the public offering in 2007StockThe purchase boom of products is even worse than that in 2020, and the influx of large amounts of funds further boosted the intensity of institutional grouping in 2007. The degree of grouping of public funds has a long-term impact on the size and value of the market. In the past 15 years, the excess return of small and large votes in the A-share market has obvious reverse characteristics with the average size of funds and the clustering effect of head funds.

　　How much room is left for digging procyclically

Since the market opened after the Spring Festival, the strong lead of the procyclical sector is still an important bright spot in the recent disk. Many institutions believe that, from a mid- to long-term logic, the procyclical sector is expected to continue to exert strength under the stimulation of factors such as the expected resonance of the global economic recovery and the opening of the restocking cycle.

　　GF SecuritiesDaikang’s strategy team proposed to explore investment opportunities in subdivisions from the perspective of production cycle. Dai Kang said that, on the one hand, the upswing of the production capacity cycle is pointing to equity and bond investment; on the other hand, structurally, the production cycle has an indicative effect on the industry’s excess returns.

Specifically, the current capacity expansion has begun and is expected to continue. The following industries are expected to obtain excess returns:

　　1. The current threeReportIndustries that are being repaired and whose production capacity is expected to continue to expand, such as petrochemicals, liquor, machinery and equipment;

　　2. The production capacity cycle at home and abroad resonates, and the industries where production capacity is expected to continue to expand, such as the chemical industry and auto parts, have their production cycle and inventory cycle nested and resonate, and capacity expansion is more flexible.

　　Tianfeng SecuritiesThe strategy team suggested that companies with a market value of 10 billion to 50 billion yuan may be the best battlefield to open up excess revenue. Among them, priority should be given to small and medium-sized companies in the high-quality track with industry beta attributes. It is recommended to continue to focus on two directions: first Global production cycleRaw materialsAnd parts (nonferrous, chemical, machinery, auto parts, etc.); followed by production line equipment, military upstream, and new energy.

(Source: Shanghai Securities News)

(Editor in charge: DF532)