概括
[Bitcoin’smarketvaluebreaksonetrillionbreakingthetraditionalconceptofthemarketwherewillthefinancialreleasego?】ThepositiveprogressoftheUSfiscalstimulusplanandtheoptimisticsignaloftheepidemicsituationhaveallmademarketrisksentimenteffectivesupportHoweverthesharpriseinUSbondyieldshascurbedriskassetsespeciallythecorrectionpressureontheUSstockmarketAtthesametimeBitcoincontinuestousherinmoreinstitutionalbuyingAtthesametimetheworld’sfirstBitcoinETFhasbeenlistedandtradedinCanadaandmoreretailfundshavepouredinaddingmoresupporttotheriseofBitcoinFacedwiththecontinuouslossofsafe-havenfundsandtheimprovementofrisksentimentthegoldbullscontinuetolosegroundOverthepastweektheBritishpoundandinterestratemarketshavebeendominantEuropeanbondyieldsarealsorisingthepoundmaybesupportingtheeuro/dollarwhiletheriseinUSrealinterestratesisslowingthedeclineofthedollar(FX168)
The positive progress of the US fiscal stimulus plan and the optimistic signs of the epidemic situation have all made market risk sentiment effective support. However, the sharp rise in U.S. bond yields has curbed risk assets, especially the correction pressure on the U.S. stock market.At the same time, Bitcoin continues to usher in more institutional buying, and the world’s first BitcoinETFIt has been listed and traded in Canada, and more retail funds have poured in, adding more support to the rise of Bitcoin. Faced with the continuous loss of safe-haven funds and the improvement of risk sentiment, the gold bulls continue to lose ground.In the past week, the British Pound andinterest rateThe market has always been dominant, EuropeBondYields are also rising, the pound may be supporting the euro/dollar, while the US is actuallyinterest rateThe rise is slowing the dollar’s decline.
Foreign exchange market:MidlandAnnounced in JanuarymeetingThe minutes show,MidlandThe Chu officials agreed that they will maintain easing for a long time to come.currencyPolicies to help the US economy recover from the new crown epidemic.So before reaching employment and inflation targets, the relevantMidlandThe expectation of the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates and cut debt purchases may be just a “fantasy.” Loose expectations and easing reality are putting further pressure on the dollar.
Stock market:Although rising yields in the past few days have put pressure on US stocks, the major stock indexes have remained near record levels. Optimistic expectations of a strong economic recovery have contributed to risk appetite. However, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said on Thursday that the United States still needs large-scale fiscal stimulus to achieve a full economic recovery.She thinks the $1.9 trillion stimulus package may help the United States recover within a yearFull employment. This has given a certain boost to investment sentiment, but the mixed economic data highlights the imbalance of economic recovery, leading to differences in the performance of different sectors.
Productmarket:Higher U.S. Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding interest-free asset gold, thereby making gold more resistant to rebound. At the same time, the rise of Bitcoin shows no signs of stopping at all, which is continuing to eat into gold’s safe-haven funds. In addition, a deadly winter storm in the southern United States this week caused power outages in Texas for several days, damaging the state’s energy infrastructure, and shutting down millions of barrels of crude oil a day. As the global economy recovers from the impact of the new crown epidemic, demand for crude oil will gradually pick up. However, due to the low possibility of a large-scale return of international travel in a short time, the scale of demand recovery may be limited.
Highlights of the week:
G7 seeks to collectively confront China, challenge China and the United States, tensions may continue
The leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations said on Friday that they will seek a collective approach to China to counter “non-market-oriented” policies and practices and ensure fair multilateral global trade.
The Group of Seven countries said after a virtual summit: “In order to support a global economic system that is fair and mutually beneficial to all, we will work with other countries, especially the G20 countries including large economies like China. contact.”
“As leaders, we will consult on joint solutions to non-market-oriented policies and practices, and we will work with other countries to resolve important global issues that affect all countries.”
“New Debt King” Gundlach: Bitcoin may become the next “stimulus asset”
Gundlach on ThursdayTwitterShang said that he has changed his long-term bullish view on gold and bearish US dollars. For the past 6 months, he has been neutral on these two positions.
He pointed out that the world’s largestCryptocurrencyBitcoin may become the next “stimulus asset” after gold in the future.
Earlier this week, as institutional investors andElon Musk(Elon Musk) and other billionaires attach importance to this cryptocurrency, Bitcoin’spriceSeveral milestones have been surpassed, and Friday has surpassed the historical mark of $56,000.
a lot ofAnalystAnd investors predict that Bitcoin may soon replace gold and become a digital security asset, Gundlach is the latest one.
JPMorgan(JPMorgan)’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou (Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) is one such person who is optimistic about Bitcoin. He has repeatedly proved that Bitcoin is digital gold and set the long-term target price of Bitcoin as 14.6. Ten thousand U.S. dollars.
However, the bank stated that it does not expect Bitcoin to reach this goal anytime soon.Price fluctuationsIt indicates that Bitcoin will close at 35,000 US dollars this year.
The US$1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus is about to usher in a major test
The Speaker of the US House of Representatives Pelosi said on Thursday that the House’s goal is to pass a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan by the end of February, and she hopes to vote “sometime before the end of next week”. Earlier this month, the Senate and House of Representatives approved a budget coordination plan that allows Congress to pass a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan without Republican support.
But be careful, the current performance of risky assets may have digested the positive impact of fiscal stimulus. Therefore, it is not ruled out that the situation of buying and selling facts is not ruled out. Once there is an accident, such as a reduction in scale or a further delay, these may be hit The current investment sentiment has increased the pressure of correction, so the performance of risky assets such as the stock market will still fluctuate in the next week, and investors need to be cautious.
As for gold, if the fiscal stimulus is passed, investors still need to observe whether it has a large boost to risk sentiment or whether it has a large boost to inflation risk.If the boost to inflation risks is greater, it willPrice bandTo effectively support, otherwise it will continue to suppress gold prices.
Market outlook for next week:
There will be many important economic data coming out next week, although the impact of these data on the foreign exchange market may be limited, because the focus is still on U.S. bond yields and the global economic recovery.Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in the House of Representatives on TuesdaybankWhen the House Banking Committee testifies, it may ignite positive risk sentiment. He may reiterate that until employment prospects improve, monetary policy will remain unchanged.
At the same time, the market will look for another evidence that the Fed will ignore rising inflation and willinterest rateMaintain close to zero level. Investors also want to see under what conditions the Federal Reserve will consider introducing yield curve control.
Holland InternationalGroup economists said that the wording Powell chose to use was crucial because his testimony was related to the release of the Federal Reserve’s semi-annual monetary policy report.
In addition, the focus of next week will be the US economic stimulus plan, and more US officials may emphasize the importance of adopting the plan. And due to the rebalancing of the portfolio at the end of the month, the market performance next Friday will be interesting.
Important economic data and events next week:
Monday (February 22)
Germany February IFObusinessProsperity index
Dallas Fedmanufacturingindex
Official speech:
European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered a speech
Tuesday (February 23)
UK February CBI Retail Sales Expectation Index
UK ILO unemployment rate from December to three months
Eurozone January final consumer price index
U.S. February Chamber of CommerceConsumer Confidence Index
Official speech:
Fed Governor Bowman will deliver a speech
Fed Chairman Powell attends the SenatebankCommittee hearing
Financial events:
ChinaNational Bureau of StatisticsIssued monthly reports on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities
Market closed for holidays:
Japan closed for the emperor’s birthday holiday
Wednesday (February 24)
Seasonally adjusted in the fourth quarter of GermanyGDPend value
Canada January Consumer Price Index (annual rate)
US January new home sales (annualized monthly rate)
Official speech:
Bank of Canada Governor McCallum delivered a speech
Bank of England Chief Economist Haldane will deliver a speech
Fed Chairman Powell attends an online hearing held by the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee
Federal Reserve Governor Brainard delivers a speech
New Zealand Federal Reserve Chairman Orr held a press conference
Central Bank News:
RBNZ announces interest rate decision and monetary policy statement
Thursday (February 25)
Revised value of the U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index (annualized quarterly rate) in the fourth quarter
US January durable goods orders (monthly rate) initial value
US real GDP (annualized quarterly rate) revised value in the fourth quarter
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States after the seasonal adjustment last week (thousands) (to 0220)
US January NAR seasonally adjusted existing home contracted sales index (monthly rate)
Official speech:
Fed Vice Chairman Clarida delivered a speech
Atlanta Fed President Bostic delivers a speech
European Central Bank Vice President Gindos delivered a speech
Central Bank News:
Bank of Korea announces interest rate decision
Financial events:
The European Council holds a video conference until February 26
Friday (February 26)
Japan’s January seasonally adjusted retail sales (monthly rate)
Switzerland Q4GDP
France’s February consumer price index (monthly rate) initial value
French fourth quarter GDP (quarter rate) final value
US January personal consumption expenditure price index (monthly rate)
US personal consumption expenditure in January (monthly rate)
US January personal income (monthly rate)
US February University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Final Value
Official speech:
Federal Reserve Governor Quarles will deliver a speech
Atlanta Fed President Bostic delivers a speech
Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkWilliamsgive a speech
Financial events:
G20 ChoiChangheThe governor of the central bank holds a video conference until February 27
(Article source: FX168)
(Editor in charge: DF118)
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