通货膨胀预期正在增强。 美国债券收益率上升的影响是什么？ _东方财富网

原标题：G7重量级！ 拜登的处子秀，特朗普被打败了？ 您从“中国挑战”到“中国合作”经历了什么？ 美国国债收益率正在疯狂，这会产生什么影响？

概括

[InflationexpectationsaregettingstrongerWhatistheimpactoftherisingUSbondyields?SomeinvestorsbelievethatthepessimisticsentimenttowardsrisinginterestratesandinflationhasrestrainedUSstocksinrecenttradingdaysThisweek’s10-yearUSTreasurybondyieldrosetoitshighestlevelinayearandonFridaytheyieldroseby7basispointstonearly136%

Biden’s first seven-nation summit!

On February 19, local time, the Group of Seven nations composed of the United States, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan held a leader videomeeting. Judging from the statement issued after the meeting, there are two points worthy of attention: one is to put “multilateralism” in the most prominent position, which is a correction of Trumpism; the other is to specifically mention “cooperating with China”. (Contact)”. Before the meeting, some media reported that the G7 summit included the “China Challenge” on the agenda, but from the statement, at least the wording has softened a lot.German ChancellorMerckAfter the G7 summitPress conferenceThe above emphasized that the G7 hopes to strengthen cooperation with China.

△MerckParticipated in the G7 summit (picture source: German Chancellery)

　　So, what exactly has the Seven-nation Summit experienced to cause such a major change? Analysts believe that the state-to-state exchanges benefit the most.From the current situation, the global bulkProductThe soaring yields of 10-year U.S. Treasuries indicate that inflation has begun to rise, and at this time the major central banks in the West are unable to adopt a contraction strategy. The United States even has to launch a stimulus plan of $1.9 trillion. If China’s production capacity is lost, inflation may be even more intense (the United States has no inflation in the past ten years, a considerable part of which is due to China providing relatively cheap goods). In addition, China’s vaccines are being respected by more countries, and China’s absence will have a great impact on the road of fighting the epidemic and economic recovery.

　　The G7 summit stated that the most important thing is actually this

　　First look at the statement of the G7 summit.

In the first paragraph of the statement, there was a clearing up. “We, the leaders of the Group of Seven nations, are meeting today and are determined to work together to defeat COVID-19 and build better. We will use our advantages as a democratic and open economy and society.Values, Work together, and work with other countries to make 2021 a turning point in multilateralism and a recovery that promotes the health and prosperity of our people and the planet. “This means that correcting Trumpism has become a consensus in the West and the most important thing at the moment.

Secondly, about the new crown. This is an important topic that will be involved in any summit today.The statement stated, “We will strengthen cooperation in the health response to COVID-19.jobsThe dedication of the author represents the best side of mankind, and the rapid discovery of vaccines shows the power of human ingenuity. We will work with the World Health Organization to strengthen the organization and support it to play a leading and coordinating role: accelerate global vaccine development and deployment; cooperate with industry to increase production capacity, including through voluntary licenses;improveInformation sharing, such as sequencing new variants; promoting transparent and responsible practices, and confidence in vaccines. We reiterate our support for access to all the pillars of the COVID-19 Tool Accelerator (ACT-A), its COVAX facilities, and affordable and equitable access to vaccines, treatment and diagnosis, reflecting the role of broad immunization as a global public good. Today, with the increase in financial commitments to ACT-A and COVAX by more than US$4 billion, the total collective support of the Group of Seven countries has reached US$7.5 billion.We invite all partners, including the G20 andInternational financeInstitutions, work with us to increase support for Action A, including increasing the adoption of COVAX by developing countriesfundOpportunity to get a vaccine approved by WHO. “

“COVID-19 shows that the world needs to strengthen defenses against future risks to global health security. We will work with WHO,Group of TwentyCooperate with other parties, especially through the Global Health Summit in Rome, to strengthen the global health and health security system, including through health financing and rapid response mechanisms, strengthen the’One Health’ approach and universal health coverage, and explore global health treaties Potential value. “

Next comes economic issues. “In the past year, we have provided unprecedented support to our economy in the Group of Seven, totaling more than US$6 trillion. We will continue to support economic protection.EmploymentTo support a strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive recovery. We reaffirm our support for the most vulnerable countries and our commitment to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, and reaffirm our partnership with Africa, including support for recovery.We will adopt the Group of Twenty (G20) andInternational Financial Institution, Explore all feasible means, including comprehensive and transparent implementation of the moratorium on debt repayment initiatives and common frameworks, and strengthen support for countries’ response measures. “

It also talked about climate issues and China issues. The climate issue is aside for the time being. The statement about China is meaningful.The statement pointed out, “In order to support a fair and mutually beneficial global economic system that benefits everyone, we will engage with other countries, especially the G20 countries including large economies like China. As leaders, we will Solve nonmarketConsultation on collective approaches that lead to policies and practices, and will work with other countries to resolve important global issues that affect all countries. (strive to reach a consensus-based solution on international taxation by mid-2021 within the framework of the OECD. With the aim of supporting a fair and mutually beneficial global economic system for all people, we will engage with others, especially G20 countries including large economies such as China. As Leaders, we will consult with each other on collective approaches to address non-market oriented policies and practices, and we will cooperate with others to address important global issues that impact all countries.)”

　　The only non-G7 country mentioned in this summit is China, and the wording here is very particular, using an engage (engage with), note that it is not a cooperate. At the same time, a global economic system that supports fairness and mutual benefit was added as a prefix. Before the summit, there were media reports that the “China Challenge” will become one of the topics. This means that there are differences on the China issue, but cooperation is still the general direction.

On February 19, local time, the German ChancellorMerckIn a press conference after the G7 summit, Er emphasized that the world must strengthen multilateralism, and the G7 hopes to strengthen cooperation with China.Merkel believes that the economy after the epidemic needs a sustained recovery. Climate issues are global challenges like the epidemic. Therefore, countries in the world need to strengthen multilateralism, and the World Health Organization and the World Trade Organization are needed.International organizations. Merkel emphasized that in order to rebuild the world economic system, the G7 hopes to strengthen cooperation with the G20, especially with China. The G7 will work on this and strengthen exchanges and dialogue.

However, according to U.S. media reports, U.S. President Biden stated in his first G7 Leaders Summit speech that the U.S. and European allies will join forces to fight the new crown virus, restore the impacted global economy, and respond to the economic challenges brought by China.

　Inflation expectations are getting stronger, China may be indispensable

It is worth noting that the market’s response to inflation is getting stronger and stronger. On Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes were mixed. The Dow closed flat and the Nasdaq rose slightly. In FAANMG, onlyappleIt rose slightly by 0.12%, and all others closed down. Affected by the decline of large technology stocks, the Nasdaq and S&P indexes fell 1.6% and 0.7% respectively this week.

someinvestmentIn the opinion of theinterest rateThe pessimism of rising inflation and inflation has restrained US stocks.This week’s 10-year U.S.National debtThe yield rose to its highest level in a year, and on Friday the yield rose by 7Base point, The highest rose to nearly 1.36%.

Chief of TD Ameritrademarketing strategyTeacher JJ Kinahan said: “I think people have begun to worry about the inflation outlook this week. It will not be a problem in the short term, but the situation may change quickly.” He said, 10 yearsTreasury bond yieldIt is unlikely that it will exceed 2%, but people are frightened by the rapid increase in the rate of return this week.

　　MidlandA Chairman Chu also said recently that the United States may encounter price pressures this year.

However, the U.S. is still pursuing a $1.9 trillion stimulus package, and European water cannot be recycled.

　　CITIC SecuritiesIt is believed that the market’s expectations for the rise in core inflation are mainly derived from the logic of fundamental expectations. From the perspective of the epidemic, the current epidemic in major European and American economies has fallen, vaccination has continued to advance, and global demand repair expectations have increased.

Judging from the history of inflation in the United States, the current upward inflation in the United States may not be comparable to the period of great inflation in the historical cycle, but since the world has not experienced an inflation shock for a long time, considering the current emerging marketsState UnitThe market generally faces the problem of high valuations. Therefore, global inflation and rising U.S. bond yields still need to be vigilant about the possible impact of emerging market countries’ stock markets.

Analysts believe that under this situation, if the world does not have China’s production capacity and China’s cooperation, inflation may become more serious. There has been no inflation in the United States in the past ten years. A considerable part of the reason is that China provides relatively cheap goods.

(Article Source:BrokerageChina)

(Editor in charge: DF398)