概括
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After the Spring Festival, the wine and soy sauce of A shares have fallen miserably!
On February 18th, the first trading day of the Year of the Ox, the three major A-share indices staged an upswing and downswing market.The Shanghai Composite IndexIn early trading, it rose more than 2% and quickly broke through 3700 points, and then fell again, and the closing index rose slightly by 0.55%. At the same time, the Shenzhen Component Index turned from red to green, falling more than 1.22%;Growth Enterprise Market IndexThe largest number of declines, the index fell more than 2.74%.
And behind this tragic start, withKweichow MoutaiRepresentativefundAwkward stocks undoubtedly become this divingMain forcemilitary. among them,Kweichow MoutaiFalling more than 5%, the market value has evaporated by more than 160 billion. Driven by Moutai, liquor stocks collectively dived at a high level. Leading stocks such as Jiangmao and Pigmao also collapsed, and the Mao Index evaporated more than 650 billion a day.
However, on the same day, as Super White Horse stocks suffered a collective decline, A-shares with small market value stocks ushered in a full-scale boom. On February 18, over 3,500 stocks in the two cities closed up.themeActive, small market capitalization stocks are sought after, and the turnover of A shares once again exceeded one trillion.Northbound fundsNet inflowOver 5 billion, the capital to enter the Hong Kong stock market has once again exceeded 10 billion.
The three major A-share indexes opened higher and lowered lower
The turnover of the two cities exceeded one trillion
On the first trading day after the holiday, the three major indexes of the A-share market did not perform as expected.
In the early trading on February 18, the index once soared more than 2% and broke through 3700 points, but thenShanghai IndexThere has been a significant downward adjustment. At the close of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to close at 3675 points.
The Shenzhen Component Index showed signs of a red plate turning green that day, and the index fell 1.22% to close at 15,767 points.
The GEM index fell more than 2.74% to close at 3320 points.
However, from the overall market perspective, A-shares have a better profitability effect. A-share non-ferrous, chemical, oil service, coal and other pro-cyclical sectors have surged across the board, and the film and television, registration systems are new,bank, Blockchain and other sectors rose intraday.
Over 3,585 individual stocks in the two cities were collectively red. More than 134 stocks rose by over 9%.
That day,Northward capitalThe net inflow exceeded 5 billion yuan.
Awkward fund stocks suffered heavy losses
Cosmic leaderKweichow MoutaiOver 160 billion evaporation
On the same day, the fund’s heavy stocks suffered a setback. Among the top 20 heavy stocks, there were only 4 red stocks and 16 green stocks.
Among them, Moutai, the biggest fall of the fund, plunged by 5%. The net outflow of main funds exceeded 1 billion that day, and the turnover exceeded 16.7 billion that day. The market value has shrunk by more than 160 billion.
Dragged down by the leading Maotai, liquor stocks performed poorly.
At the same time, the performance of other funds’ heavy holdings is equally disastrous.Midea GroupPlummeted by more than 8%,Ningde eraFell more than 3%,Luzhou LaojiaoFell nearly 7%.
In the Hong Kong stock market, the core targets of institutional holdings stocks also showed obvious signs of diving.among themMeituan-WAt one point it fell more than 5%.
At about 15:30 that afternoon, the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by about 3%.BYDElectronics fell more than 8%,AlibabaFell more than 2%.
Baotuan Baima shares ushered in the “dark opening”
Mao Index plate disappeared 650 billion a day
Affected by the heavy setback of the fund, a large group of Baima stocks collectively dived, and the mao indexes of various industries such as “Pigweed” and “Jiaomao” also fell fiercely.
On February 18, the Mao Index plummeted 2.9% in one day, and the plate evaporated more than 650 billion.
Haitian Flavor IndustryFell more than 8%;WuXi AppTecFell more than 7%;ArowanaFell nearly 5%.Yili shares、Yasui Foods、Qia Qia Food、Hengshun VinegarAnd so on fell.
Affected by the easing of the epidemic, a large number of vaccine stocks also showed signs of collective correction.among themKangtai Bio、ZhifeiFell more than 10%.
Super big stocksIntech MedicalIt fell more than 13%.
The non-ferrous sector soars collectively
Is the commodity market “super cycle” coming?
However, unlike Baotuan stocks’ collective plummeting performance, non-ferrous metals, coal and other pro-cyclical sectors have seen a significant upturn against the market.
Today, the main domestic Shanghai copper contracts have opened up sharply. As of the end of the day, they have risen by more than 5%, a record high in nearly 10 years; the main contracts of Shanghai zinc and Shanghai tin have also risen by more than 4%, and Shanghai aluminum, Shanghai nickel and Shanghai lead also Follow the sharp rise. At the same time, the daily limit of styrene, ethylene glycol and staple fiber, crude oil and iron ore rose by more than 7%.
ReceiveNon-ferrous metalsAffected by the general price rise, the non-ferrous sector opened sharply higher by more than 6% in early trading today, setting a new high in three and a half years, and the half-day turnover surpassed the full-day turnover of the previous trading day.Zijin Mining、Luoyang Molybdenum、Yunnan Copper、Jiangxi CopperWait for more than 10 shares to open their daily limit.
At the same time, in the convertible bond market, Zijin convertible bonds rose by 20% at the opening. After being temporarily stopped for half an hour, they closed up by more than 15% that day; Shengtun convertible bonds also rose by more than 10%.
Market analysts,Non-ferrous metalsThe collective surge benefited from many factors. On the one hand, domesticNon-ferrous metalsConsumption ushered in a rare peak season, and copper prices have maintained high levels for many consecutive days; on the other hand, overseas liquidity has continued to loosen, and the US financial department has released signals to stimulate the economy, still emphasizing the need to “make big moves.”
JPMorganIt also said that a new round of the commodity super cycle has just begun. Unlike the previous round of demand promotion,Cash flowDynamics will play an increasingly important role in asset pricing.
CITIC SecuritiesIt is believed that with the rise of metal prices hitting new highs in recent years and opening up further upward price expectations, the valuation logic of leading mining companies may switch from profit valuation to resource dimensions.
CICCIt is believed that the United States has started the replenishment cycle, the general direction of the “procyclical” repair logic is still established, and the cost performance is still relatively high. From a short-term perspective, we have observed that the non-ferrous metals sector is showing more blooms, and the industry remains overweight.
Lock the “face value delisting” 4 days in advance
The chairman of the company once increased his holdings to save himself
It is worth noting that on the first day of the new year, the A-share “phoenix” myth continued to shatter! Another poorly performing stock is about to usher in the destiny of forced retirement!
Open on February 18th,* ST NarujoThe stock price is firmly sealed on the one-word limit, with a turnover of nearly 1.67 million. As of the closing day,* ST NarujoIt closed at 0.80 yuan, and over 180,000 lots sold orders were sealed at the limit.
And this is also* ST NarujoThe face value was less than 1 yuan for 16 consecutive trading days. This also means that in the next 4 trading days, even if the stock price continues to rise and limit, *ST Chengcheng will not be able to return to the face value of more than 1 yuan.
In fact, from January 13 to February 11, *ST Chengcheng issued risk warnings for eight consecutive timesannouncement, To remind investors that the company’s stock is about to face the risk of being terminated from listing.
According to the latest delisting regulations of the exchange, if the daily closing price of a listed company’s stock is lower than RMB 1 for 20 consecutive trading days, the company’s stock will be terminated from listing, which is a forced delisting of trading. After the delisting of the face value is triggered, there will be no delisting period.
This also means that after the face value is lower than 1 yuan for 16 consecutive trading days, *ST Chengcheng will lock in advance to delist.
It is reported that before this forced exit risk, the chairman of the company had also acted to save himself. On February 10, *ST Chengcheng issued an announcement stating that the chairman of the company, Mr. Fang Xiang, plans to increase his holdings of the company’s shares through the trading system of the Shanghai Stock Exchange within 3 months from February 10, 2021, and increase the total number of shares held No less than 500,000 shares. The shareholding increase plan does not set a price range, and it will gradually implement the shareholding increase plan based on a reasonable judgment of the company’s stock value.
The above announcement also stated that the above-mentioned shareholding increase plan does not have the risk of failure to implement the shareholding increase plan due to the failure of the required funds; at the same time, the implementation of the shareholding increase plan does not depend on whether the company has a listing status.
Used to be a well-known phoenix in A shares
Stocks repeatedly “listed”
For many old investors, *ST Chengcheng is actually a well-known “phoenix” in the A-share market.
As early as February 2014, some official media reported that *ST Chengcheng Sun Company was dragged into the “loan usury” problem and caused debt-ridden situation, and the listed company itself also admitted that Sun Company had illegally guaranteed the private loan. No disclosure was made. In March of that year, Chengcheng shares were filed for investigation. Subsequently, Cheng Qingbo, the actual controller of the company, resigned.
On April 10, 2014, because *ST Chengcheng failed to complete the rectification on schedule, the listed company was implemented ST for the first time. On May 21, 2014, *ST Chengcheng issued an announcement that the company received the investigation from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on May 21, 2014. Notice. As the company was suspected of violating securities laws and regulations and failed to disclose its annual report on schedule, the China Securities Regulatory Commission decided to file an investigation on the company in accordance with relevant laws and regulations. In June 2014, *ST Chengcheng was issued a delisting risk warning.
In the next few years, *ST Chengcheng’s internal operations have always been problematic. According to media reports, *ST Chengcheng was exposed to many problems during the company’s rectification, ranging from illegally using the listed company platform as a financing channel to export funds, to illegally issuing commercial bills, and embezzling capital involved in the “China Technology Department”. Happening.
Subsequently, *ST Chengcheng also appeared in the story of protecting the shell: the company reportedReorganizationNews, number oneshareholderIt is about to change owners, and the stock price continues to rise by the stimulus. In 2016, *ST Chengcheng disclosed 2015PerformanceThe situation of turning losses into profits, the market for “removing hats” once rose. On May 9, 2016, *ST became a cityNet profitIndicators improved to achieve “star picking”, and once got rid of the shadow of delisting.
However, the good times did not last long. Since 2016, *ST Chengcheng’s performance has once again experienced a significant decline. The company Haiyin defaulted on audit fees, which caused the annual report to be difficult to deliver and received a fine from the Securities Regulatory Commission again. Then in 2018, *ST became a new “star”.
From the perspective of stock price performance, *ST Chengcheng was once touted by funds due to the restructuring concept or the concept of speculation. The stock price also changed from January 5, 2015. . It rose from around 57 yuan to 39.10 yuan on June 12, 2015. In just six months, the stock price soared more than 7 times. In the following years, the stock price fell all the way. Since its high, the stock price has plummeted by more than 97%, and the market value is only less than 3 Billion.
According to data from the third quarter of last year, *ST Chengcheng holds only 14,000 shareholders.
The central bank’s rare large-scale “collection of water”
260 billion net return of funds
Corresponding to the trend of today’s A shares, the capital market also sent different signals.
On February 18, the central bank issued an announcement stating that cash will be gradually returned to circulation after the Spring Festival, and it will carry out 200 billion yuan of medium-term loan facility (MLF) operations (including the renewal of today’s MLF maturity) and 20 billion yuan in reverse.RepurchaseOperation, winning bidinterest rate2.95% and 2.20% respectively, maintenancebankThe liquidity of the system is reasonable and abundant.
On that day, 200 billion yuan of MLF and 280 billion yuan of reverse repurchases expired, achieving a net return of 260 billion yuan.
The return of funds on the first trading day after the Spring Festival holiday exceeded 260 billion yuan, which is also rare.
Data show that during the Spring Festival holiday and this week (February 11 to February 20), there will be 380 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities in the central bank’s open market, of which 280 billion yuan will expire on February 18 and February 19 ( Including 180 billion yuan due for the Spring Festival holiday), 100 billion yuan; in addition, there will be 200 billion yuan MLF due on February 17, because it coincides with the Spring Festival holiday that is postponed to February 18. This year’s Spring Festival holiday is from February 11th to 17th.
As the reverse repurchase repurchase was stronger than in previous years, it also created a certain amount of pressure on the capital side. At around 14:00 on February 18th,bankbetweenPledgeRepointerest rateMost of them went up, and the exchange rate of repurchase within one month went up across the board.
According to the “China Fourth Quarter of 2020” issued by the Central Bank before the Spring Festival holiday,currencyThe “Policy Implementation Report” shows that “guide market interest rates around the open market operation interest rate and medium-term lending convenience interest rate fluctuations”; in the previous quarter, the corresponding statement in the monetary policy implementation report was “guide market interest rates around open market operation interest rates and medium-term lending The lending convenience interest rate is operating smoothly.”
Sun Guofeng, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People’s Bank of China, once published an article in the “China Finance” magazine that to do a good job of monetary policy in 2021, the focus is to deeply understand the orientation of a prudent monetary policy to be flexible, precise, reasonable and appropriate.It mentioned that the quantity and price are appropriate, keepcurrency supplyAnd the growth rate of social financing scale basically matches the nominal economic growth rate, keep interest rates at an appropriate level, keep the macro leverage ratio basically stable, and handle the relationship between economic recovery and risk prevention.
CITIC Fixed Income said that the unexpected fluctuations in capital before the Spring Festival led to the rise of interest rates. After the Spring Festival, there will be a certain liquidity gap, and the capital is expected to maintain a tight balance. Monetary policy is still based on stability. At present, there is no need to worry about the shift of monetary policy and pay attention to the short-term rhythm. The short-term monetary policy operation may once again guide the interbank certificate of deposit interest rate to return to the MLF operating interest rate.
Organization: China’s beautiful 50 is not over
Opportunities for mid-market blue chips?
On the first trading day when the market opened in the Year of the Ox, Baotuan stocks fell sharply, which also disappointed many investors. The market fell sharply and the heavy holdings of funds were adjusted. So the question is, what should be the next step?
First of all, judging from the market of Baotuan stocks, many institutions believe that this wave of Baotuan has not ended.
Guotai Junanup to dateResearch reportIt is pointed out that combining horizontal and vertical comparisons, the current valuation of the Chinese version of the beautiful 50 is already at a historically high level, and the earnings expectations included in the valuation are already high. However, the current rising valuation of the Chinese version of the beautiful 50 still has its fundamental basis, and the valuation bubble of the Chinese version of the beautiful 50 has not yet reached its most severe period. “” Under the pressure of risk-free interest rates and the shift in the focus of profitability, the relative returns of the leading stocks after the first quarter will experience periodic disturbances and divergence.
Secondly, as the valuation of large-cap stocks hits the ceiling, the allocation of mid-cap stocks has become the focus of many funds.
CITIC SecuritiesIt is recommended to pay attention to the industry leaders of medium market capitalization that were mistakenly killed under the extreme market differentiation in the early stage. It can insist on configuring cost-effective varieties in the “five major security” fields, including national defense security (military industry), technological security (consumer electronics, semiconductor equipment, information security), and food security (planting chain). At the same time, we can focus on the non-ferrous, chemical, and agricultural sectors that benefit from rising inflation expectations.In addition, it is recommended to continue to strengthen the strategic increase in Hong Kong stocks, with directions including interconnectionNetDragonhead,Telecom operationsBusiness, education and other sectors.
The Haitong strategy Xun Yugen team stated that the market will enter the third stage of a bull market driven by fundamentals and emotions. In terms of risks, Xun Yugen believes that historically, adjustments of more than 10% during the bull market are due to fundamental or policy changes. There have been 4 bull markets in the last three rounds, and there have been two in this round of bull markets. Up to now, the minor adjustment in late January has ended, and there are no signs of major adjustments.
Guotai JunanSecurities Chen Xianshun’s strategy team stated that they remain optimistic about the post-holiday A-share market, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is expected to fluctuate between 3,450 and 3,700 points. For market structure,Guotai JunanMake three judgments: First, be optimistic about the global raw material cycle with high odds and winning rate; second, high-performance blue chips are still the next stage of the transaction direction, and we can actively deploy non-group high-performance blue chips, especially high-prosperity global pricing cycles. And midstream manufacturing; third, it is still time to invest in Hong Kong stocks southward.
(Source: China Fund News)
(Editor in charge: DF142)
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