概括
[Electricitypriceshavesoaredmorethan100times!ArarecoldwaveraidedthelargestoilrefineryinthesouthernUnitedStatesandNorthAmericatocloseandoilpricesroseagain!】OnFebruary15theWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)heldaspecialmeetingoftheGeneralCouncilappointingNigeriancandidateNgoziOkonjo-IwealaastheDirector-GeneraloftheWTONgoziOkonjo-IwealabecamethefirstfemaleDirector-GeneralsincetheestablishmentoftheWTOandthefirstDirector-GeneralfromAfrica(FuturesDaily)
On February 15, the World Trade Organization (WTO) held a specialmeeting, Appointed Nigerian candidate Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala to the post of Director-General of the WTO. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala became the first female Director-General since the establishment of the WTO and the first Director-General from Africa.
On February 15, the Nikkei 225 index closed up 1.91% to 30084.15 points, which was the first time the index broke the 30,000-point mark since August 1990.
According to Xinhua News Agency, a magnitude 7.3 earthquake occurred off the coast of Fukushima Prefecture, Japan on the evening of February 13. According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, this earthquake may be an aftershock of the 2011 “March 11” earthquake in Japan. The magnitude is high and the focal point is deep, causing large-scale and wide-range strong shaking.News from Kyodo News on February 14, Tokyo Electric Powerthe companyOn the 14th, it was revealed that in the earthquake tremors that occurred in the Fukushima and Miyagi prefectures on the evening of the 13th, some water overflowed from the spent fuel pools above the reactor buildings of Units 5 and 6 of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.
After experiencing ups and downs in 2020, the international crude oil market has stabilized and rebounded since this year.Monday, Eastern Time, InternationalOil priceClosed up more than 1%, US oil futures broke through the $60/barrel mark. As of the close, New York March crude oil futures closed up 0.65 US dollars / barrel, or 1.09%, to 60.12 US dollars / barrel. Brent April crude oil futures closed up 0.80 US dollars / barrel, or 1.28%, to 63.23 US dollars / barrel.
According to the US Chinese website, the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Center said that 150 million people across the United States were under winter storm weather warning on the morning of the 14th local time. The south central region, which has just experienced a deadly storm threat last week, is about to be violently attacked by another strong storm system on the 16th.
Due to severe cold weather in Texas, the largest oil refinery in North America was closed. An e-mail from Motiva Enterprises LLC indicated that the company will cease operations at its refinery in Port Arthur, Texas. Due to inclement weather and power outages of generators, the spot price of the Texas grid soared by more than 10,000%.
WTO welcomes its first female director general
According to Xinhua News Agency, the WTO stated in a press release issued on the same day that WTO members “made history” and Ngozi Okoncho-Ibeala will become the first female director general and the first African national to run the organization. Director General, her term will last from March 1 this year to August 31, 2025.
Okoncho-Iweara onlineGo to meetingAt the meeting, he was honored to be elected as the Director-General of the WTO. She said that in order to fully and quickly recover from the damage caused by the new crown epidemic, a strong WTO is essential. She looks forward to working with all members to formulate and implement response policies to restore the economy. “Our organization faces many challenges, but working together, we will make the WTO stronger, more flexible, and better adapted to the needs of today’s reality.”
David Walker, Chairman of the WTO General Council, expressed “the warmest congratulations” to Oconjo-Iweala on behalf of the General Council. He emphasized that this is a “critical moment” of the WTO, and believes that all members will carry out constructive work with the Director-General to shape the future of the WTO.
Li Chenggang, China’s Permanent Representative to the WTO, said thatcrucial momentToday, when results need to be achieved as soon as possible, this appointment is “very timely.”Made by all WTO membersdecided togetherIt not only shows the trust in the new Director-General, but also shows the “trust in the multilateral trading system that we all believe and maintain.”
Li Chenggang said that as a contributor and beneficiary of a stable, non-discriminatory, rules-based multilateral trading system, China firmly believes that mutually beneficial and win-win trade will be a key tool to help get rid of current difficulties and achieve economic recovery as soon as possible.
The head of the WTO Department of the Ministry of Commerce said that China congratulates Dr. Ivira on his appointment as the new Director-General of the WTO. Dr. Ivira has been engaged in poverty reduction in developing countries and global vaccine health for a long time, and has extensive management experience in international organizations. Ivira is the first Director-General of the WTO from the African continent and the first female Director-General.
At present, the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has not yet eased, and the multilateral trading system is facing major challenges. China has full confidence in her as the Director-General of the WTO. China expects that after her new appointment, it will promote the return of the WTO to its normal functions as soon as possible, promote the WTO to play a greater role in anti-epidemic cooperation and economic recovery, promote the 12th WTO Ministerial Conference to achieve positive results, and promote the necessary reforms of the WTO. Maintain and enhance the authority and effectiveness of the multilateral trading system.
This year marks the 20th anniversary of China’s accession to the WTO, and it is accelerating the construction of a new development pattern, which will provide more opportunities for the world.As a large and responsible developing country, China will firmly support the multilateral trading system, actively participate in WTO reforms, and take concrete actions to support the Director General in his work, so that the WTO will improveGlobal governanceSystem and improve the well-being of the people of the world.
Oconcho-Iweara is 66 years old and has been in the worldbankWorked for 25 years and served as executive vice president.She also served as the Ministry of Finance of NigeriaChangheMinister of Foreign Affairs and former chairman of the board of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization.
Last year, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala won the support of most WTO members in the election of WTO Director-General. Only the United States opposed and supported another South Korean candidate, Yu Myung Hee. On February 5 this year, Yu Mingxi announced his withdrawal from the election, and the Biden administration also expressed its “strong support” for Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as the director general.
Azevedo, the sixth director-general of the WTO, resigned on August 31 last year, ending his term a year earlier. The selection process for the new Director General was launched on June 8 last year.ShareEight candidates were formally nominated. On October 28 last year, the WTO Director-General selected the “three-person team” and announced that Oconcho Iveala was the only candidate recommended by the new Director-General. The Biden administration also expressed its “strong support” for Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as the director general.
The Nikkei 225 Index closed above 30,000 for the first time in 30 years
On February 15, the Nikkei 225 index touched 30,000 points for the first time since 1990, and the intraday peak rose to 30092.34 points. As of the close of the day, the Nikkei 225 index rose 1.91% to 30084.15 points, also closing above the 30,000 point mark for the first time since 1990.
According to foreign media reports, due to thecurrencyDevaluation, andExitRelated stocks generally rose. The Cabinet Office of Japan reported on the same day that the annual growth rate of the Japanese economy from October to December last year was 12.7%, the second consecutive quarter of growth.
A reporter from the Futures Daily learned that the rise in Japanese stocks on Monday was mainly driven by the recovery trend of the Japanese economy.enterpriseThe financial report data is relatively strong and investor confidence has increased. The fourth quarter of 2020, JapanGDPYoYAn increase of nearly 13%, an increase of 3% month-on-month, was stronger than economists’ expectations of 2.3%. This is the second consecutive quarter of economic growth in Japan since the economy deteriorated sharply under the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
Japan’s Kyodo News Agency reported on February 14 that Japan’s Tokyo Electric Power Company revealed on the 14th that spent fuel above the reactor buildings of Units 5 and 6 of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant was shaken by the earthquake that occurred in Fukushima and Miyagi on the evening of the 13th. Some water overflowed from pools and other places.
Tokyo Electric Power said that it was the fifth floor of the uppermost floor of the reactor building where water was found to overflow. This is the floor where nuclear fuel is removed from the fuel pool. Units 5 and 6 each have 4 water accumulations.Also confirmedStorageThe shared pool building for spent fuel removed from the reactor buildings also had water overflow. There was also a trace of water overflow in the spent fuel pool of Unit 1 of the Fukushima No. 2 Nuclear Power Plant (Tomioka and Naraha).
It is said that no water flow to the outside of the plant has been confirmed, and it has no effect on the outside. But this does not mean that the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant can sit back and relax. On the one hand, the aftershocks continue; on the other hand, the location of the leak is the spent fuel pool of the nuclear power plant. The water in the pool not only contains radioactive elements, but is also closely related to the nuclear reactor. , Once the fault deteriorates, it is very likely to cause serious consequences.
In the Asia-Pacific market, the major stock indexes all rose to a certain extent. Among them, South Korea’s KOSPI Index rose 1.50% to close at 3147 points, India’s Mumbai 30 Index rose 1.18% to close at 52154.13 points, FTSE Singapore Straits Index rose 0.21%, and Australia The S&P 200 index closed up 0.91%.
Historic winter storm hits the United States
Affected by the polar cold current, parts of Texas in the southern United States began to experience winter storms on the night of the 14th, resulting in icy roads, road closures and extensive power outages.
Many places in Texas, including Houston, the fourth largest city in the United States, began to experience snow, ice, and freezing rain on the night of the 14th. The temperature below freezing continued until the day of the 15th, resulting in icy roads and closure of many expressways.
According to a website that monitors electricity supply across the United States, nearly 2.5 million households across Texas had power outages on the morning of the 15th. Houston media reported that there have been power outages in many local communities that have lasted for several hours.
The Texas Electric Power Reliability Commission said on the 15th that the sudden drop in temperature caused a surge in power consumption and insufficient power supply, and the state entered a “power emergency three-level alert.” This alert level means that various regions take turns to cut off electricity, this state will continue at least until the morning of the 16th.
According to the “Winter Storm Warning” issued by the National Weather Service, southeastern Texas, including Houston, will continue to have low temperatures in the future with snow or ice. The “Wind Chill Warning” issued by the National Weather Service will take effect at midnight on the 15th. This is the first time the Weather Bureau has issued a “Wind Chill Warning” in this area.
Due to severe cold weather in Texas, North America’s largest oil refinery closed. An e-mail from Motiva Enterprises LLC indicated that the company will cease operations of its refinery in Port Arthur, Texas.
The weather forecast shows that Houston may usher in the lowest temperature in February for 122 years in the early morning of the 16th. In addition, Texas will usher in a winter storm this week, cold weather and road icing conditions will continue for several days.
In terms of international crude oil, the market is worried that the extreme cold weather in Texas may cause oil wells to stop production and logistics problems, or cause supply disruptions. International crude oilpriceRising again. Previously, the market had certain confidence that the US economic stimulus plan would boost the economy and energy demand. Therefore, the market atmosphere was good and crude oil prices continued to rise. As of Monday’s close, Eastern Time, New York March crude oil futures closed up 0.65 US dollars / barrel, or 1.09%, to 60.12 US dollars / barrel. Brent April crude oil futures closed up 0.80 US dollars / barrel, or 1.28%, to 63.23 US dollars / barrel.
On February 15, international oil prices rose sharply due to concerns that the cold weather in Texas would restrict the supply of the largest shale oil producing region in the United States. “TradersWe predict that the daily output of hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude oil in Texas will be affected due to the closure of oil wells, road transportation interruptions and power outages. Said Yang An, head of energy and chemical research and development of Haitong Futures.
Yang An believes that during the Spring Festival, oil prices continued to rise sharply and exceeded many investors’ expectations. Based on a comprehensive analysis, the current oil price increase is the second round of large-scale oil price increases that began in November last year. In January of this year, oil prices were under strong pressure to adjust, but with the additional cut of 1 million barrels per day in Saudi Arabia on the supply side, the main logic of tight supply has been injected into the market; on the demand side, vaccines help demand recovery; the Biden administration at the macro level Advocating a rescue plan of 1.9 trillion US dollars, the weakening of the US dollar and other factors promoted further increase in risk appetite.Constantly appearingprofitableFactors have pushed oil prices to a prolonged wave after rising by US$25/barrel, which has risen by nearly US$10/barrel since the end of January.
In addition, the Saudi National News Agency reported on the evening of the 15th local time that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had a phone call with Russian President Putin that day and emphasized that he would continue to strengthen coordination with Russia to maintain the stability of the international crude oil market.GuaranteeGlobal economic growth.According to the report, the leaders of the two countries also discussed how to strengthen the relations between the two countries, and discussed regional and international issues such as the situation in Syria and the Gulf.exchangeViewed.
In fact, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Supervisory Committee (JMMC) previously stated that OPEC will continue to maintain the scale of production cuts. “Under the efforts of OPEC+ to actively comply with the production reduction agreement and passive production reduction in non-OPEC countries, the supply side of the market has been effectively controlled, and the supply trend is tightening. In addition, the market still has certain confidence in the US economic stimulus plan to boost the economy and energy demand. At present, global crude oil demand is still slowly recovering, the market is still optimistic about vaccines and economic stimulus plans, and the market atmosphere is good.” Huishang Futures Research InstituteAnalystLiu Jiao said that, boosted by many bullish factors, international crude oil prices rose sharply on the 15th, hitting a 13-month high.
Earlier, EIA announced crude oil inventory data. As of the week of February 5, EIA crude oil inventory changes actually announced a decrease of 6.645 million barrels, which is expected to decrease by 250,000 barrels, and the previous value decreased by 994,000 barrels.United StatesbusinessCrude oil inventories unexpectedly fell sharply below expectations, which also shows that the pattern of crude oil supply and demand is improving.
“U.S. crude oil inventory data has dropped to near the lowest level in a year, further confirming the current tight supply pattern in the crude oil market, and the strong monthly gap in crude oil also further reflects the recent tight supply in the crude oil market, which further enhances the market’s bullish confidence.” Yang An said.
However, it is worth noting that under the background of crude oil destocking, the number of active crude oil rigs in the United States has begun to rebound recently. According to data from oil service giant Baker Hughes, the number of drilling rigs has increased from a five-year low of 172 six months ago to 306 last week. Shale oil production rebounded from a low of 6.75 million barrels per day in May last year to 7.61 million barrels per day.
Market participants said that although the number of active crude oil rigs in the United States has begun to rebound recently, it is still difficult for crude oil production to fully recover in the short term, so it is difficult to suppress oil prices. “It has been half a year since the number of active crude oil rigs in the United States has begun to pick up. Although it has shown a continued upward trend, the number of crude oil rigs is still at a low level relative to the decline in the output of old wells. The number of new rigs has contributed to the increase in crude oil production. Limited. In addition, US institutions believe that in view of insufficient funds and debt burden, US shale oil production will not rebound soon.” Yang An said.
In this regard, Liu Jiao believes that, on the one hand, the current oil price level is not enough to support large-scale crude oil extraction at high costs; on the other hand, the new US President Biden’s clean energy plan may suppress the traditional energy industry. “Therefore, the rebound in the number of active crude oil rigs in the United States will have little impact on the oil market in the short term, but with the further rise of oil prices, it is not ruled out that OPEC+ production plans will become a market risk, and we still need to continue to pay attention in the later period.”
In addition, the situation in the Middle East has also aroused market concern. A spokesman for the Yemeni Houthi armed forces said that drones have recently been used to attack Saudi Arabia’s Aba Airport and King Khalid Air Force Base. In fact, geographic tension has always been an important factor in rising oil prices.
“Considering that the Middle East has huge crude oil reserves, and its production and exports are also very high, the world’s major crude oil consuming countries are highly dependent on it, and the remaining capacity in this region is large, so the ability to control oil prices is relatively strong. The Middle East. The unrest will undoubtedly boost oil prices.” Liu Jiao said.
Yang An said in this regard that harassment of Saudi Arabia by Houthi armed drones in Yemen has been almost normal for more than a year, but in the early stage, because the market was more worried about surplus, there was no time to consider the impact of such small-scale geo-related incidents such as drones. However, as the supply and demand situation improves and the supply enters a relatively tense stage, the market has begun to pay attention to geographic issues, especially as the current market is in a stage of rising risk appetite, and investors are more sensitive to bullish factors. Therefore, any turmoil in the Middle East situation may affect investment The sentiment of the consumer, which further pushes up oil prices.
(Source: Futures Daily)
(Editor in charge: DF318)
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