它爆炸了！ 基金经理在哪里仍有1万亿发子弹会变成水库？ _东方财富网

原标题：燃烧！ 基金经理还剩下1万亿枚子弹。 他们将在哪里成为水库？ 张坤向香港股票投资了300亿美元。 基金经纪人非常感兴趣。 港股应得股份吗？

概括

[Burst!Wherethefundmanagerstillhas1trillionbulletsthatwillbecomeareservoir?】RecentlythelatestresearchreportissuedbytheGalaxySecuritiesFundResearchCentershowsthatpublicfundmanagersstillhaveupto10126billionbulletstobuyAshares(BrokerChina)

Recently, Galaxy SecuritiesFund researchCenter’s latest releaseresearch reportShow, public offeringfundThe manager currently has up to 1012.6 billion yuan of bullets to buy A shares.

It is worth mentioning that the use of the word “maximum” for the remaining funds in the hands of fund managers to buy A shares is because of the new funds in the last two yearsproductMost of them can invest up to 50% in Hong Kong stocks, which also means that the remaining bullet of 1012.6 billion yuan is based on the prerequisite for fund managers to give up the Hong Kong stocks in South China.

Almost at the same time,CICCA fund research report released suggests that a considerable proportion of the remaining funds in the hands of fund managers may go south to Hong Kong stocks.This report believes that the newly established initiative since last yearPartial equity fund, Most of them are allowed to invest in Hong Kong stocks. At present, there are 642 active partial equity funds that can invest in Hong Kong stocks in the whole market, with a total size of 1.96 trillionRMB, Accounting for 68% of all active partial equity funds and 70% of the capital scale. This means that the active partial equity funds that cannot invest in Hong Kong stocks account for a relatively small proportion. The bullet of 1012.6 billion yuan may belong to those funds that can invest in Hong Kong stocks.

　　Fund managers still have 1 trillion bullets in their hands

The Galaxy Securities Fund Research Center released the latest public fund position calculation report on February 9, 2021, showing that: (1) The remaining funds of the stocks that have disclosed quarterly reports are 549.9 billion yuan. (2) The remaining funds from stocks that did not disclose the quarterly report to the fund were 140.3 billion yuan. (3) Since 2021, the remaining funds of the newly established equity fund are 322.4 billion yuan. Preliminary calculations show that the three pieces of funds that can be used by public funds to buy A shares in the near future are about 1012.6 billion yuan.

　　Specifically:

According to the report, according to the quarterly report for the fourth quarter of 2020, the proportion of each stock’s current holdings in the fund iscontractThe difference between the upper limit of the shareholding ratio specified in the, it can be calculated that the remaining funds that these funds can use to buy stocks at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020 are 549.9 billion yuan.Which followsStock fundIn terms of the division of mixed funds, the remaining funds of stock funds are 47.543 billion yuan, and the remaining funds of mixed funds are 502.356 billion yuan.

In addition to the funds that have disclosed the quarterly report, Galaxy Securities also believes that the remaining funds of the funds that have not disclosed the quarterly report are 140.3 billion yuan. The asset size of the equity fund raised in November and December 2019 that did not disclose the quarterly report was about 280.6 billion. Since the four stock markets were good last year, these funds built positions quickly. Galaxy Securities believes that it is estimated that as of the end of last Thursday, 40% of this type of funds have opened positions. For now, it is preliminary estimated that there are about 140.3 billion yuan remaining in stock funds. If there is a sustained low in the stock market recently, these funds can absorb bargain-hunting and complete the work of opening positions.

In addition, from the beginning of 2021 to before the Spring Festival,fund companyA number of new funds have also been launched intensively and a large amount of funds have been subscribed. The Galaxy Securities Fund Research Center believes that the remaining funds of the newly established equity funds from 2021 to the present are about 322.4 billion yuan.The report believes that due to the stock direction in 2020PerformanceThe average rise is around 49%, and there will be more active stocks in the whole society from January to February 2021Fund issuanceupsurge. According to statistics from the Galaxy Securities Fund Research Center, since 2021, equity-oriented funds have raised a total of 460.6 billion assets. These funds will not have time to build a large-scale position in the future. If the stock market sees a relatively low point, these funds can build a large-scale position, which is 322.4 billion yuan according to a 70% ratio.

The total of these remaining funds can reach 1012.6 billion yuan.

　　The remaining trillion bullets may be diverted from A shares elsewhere

It is worth mentioning that the data of the Galaxy Securities Fund Research Center on the purchase of A shares with the remaining funds in the hands of fund managers uses the word “most”. This is in line with the current design of the investment scope of public fund products, because the new fund products in the past two years almost all include up to 50% of the Hong Kong stocks, which means that the remaining 10126 billion yuan of bullets is based on the condition that the fund manager abandons the south Hong Kong stocks. on.

　　CICCAccording to the published research report, as of February 5, 2021,currencyA total of 1095 public offering funds are qualified to invest in Hong Kong stocks, with a total scale of 2.67 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.5% and 21.1% of all non-monetary public offering funds (7042) and scale (12.63 trillion yuan).

Further subdivided, there are 642 active partial equity funds that can invest in Hong Kong stocks, with a total scale of RMB 1.96 trillion, accounting for 68% of all active partial equity funds and 70% of the capital scale. Since the beginning of 2021, this trend has continued and even accelerated. In 2021, there will be as many as 100 and 62 newly established public offering funds with Hong Kong stock investment qualifications and active partial equity mutual offering funds in just one month.

The vice president of a super large fund company in Shenzhen said at the 2021 media communication meeting that the future market opportunities are relatively neutral. Although the income of the A-share market may not be as good as 2020, there may be some opportunities in Hong Kong stocks.

He toBrokerageAccording to a Chinese reporter, the new fund products of major fund companies in the past one or two years have all designed products that can be put into the Hong Kong stock market. The valuation of Hong Kong stocks is attractive to a certain extent, which will provide new fund products in 2021. Make room.The above-mentioned vice president of the fund company meant that fund managers can use Hong Kong stocksPositionOpen a position.

Brokers China reporters also noticed that although many fund managers managed funds designed to invest in Hong Kong stocks in the A-share market as early as 2019, most fund managers still invested 90% or even all of the funds available for investment in stocks. In the A-share market, many fund managers who can also invest in Hong Kong stocks hardly allocate any funds to Hong Kong stocks.

However, starting from the second half of 2020, the situation is changing. Take the icon of the fund market, Yi Fangda Zhang Kun, as an example. As of the end of 2020, the market value of Hong Kong stocks held by this star fund manager exceeds 32 billion yuan. Among them, the number of Hong Kong stocks even accounts for half.According to E FundenterpriseAccording to the information disclosed by the fund, Zhang Kun passedSouthbound tradingThe value of the Hong Kong stock market invested by the trading mechanism is 4.73 billion yuan, accounting for thatFund equityThe proportion is 43.92%. The information disclosed by E Fund’s Blue Chip Select Fund shows that as of the end of last year, the value of the Hong Kong stock market invested by Zhang Kun through the southbound trading mechanism was approximately 26.8 billion yuan, accounting for 39.54% of the net value.

The above information means that a considerable proportion of the remaining bullets of 1012.6 billion yuan will be diverted by the Hong Kong stock market, and it may be difficult for A shares to retain all the remaining funds in the hands of these fund managers.

　　A shares are really not too cheap

The key problem is that A shares are indeed not too cheap. Although there are still quite good stocks, which continue to bring money to the market, after platinum and new energy, recently including chemical, military, cosmetics and other sectors have attracted funds, but How much capital these relatively small industries can hold is debatable, and the above-mentioned new hot spots have also been greatly pushed up in the market recently, so that some fund managers have earned another 20% from the New Year to the pre-holiday period. the above.

　　Changjiang SecuritiesA newly released report also believes that no matter from the absolute valuation or relative valuation level, stock bonds are not cheap anymore. After smoothing and adjusting the large fluctuations in long-term stock growth expectations and inflation expectations due to the epidemic, it is estimated that the current implied ERP of the Shanghai Stock Exchange is about 12.55 percent.CSI 300The implied ERP is about 12.28%, which is at the historical 20.1% and 4.7% quantile levels respectively.This means that stocks will be relativelyBondThe attractiveness of the allocation is weaker than in 2020, and the allocation among stocks and bonds tends to be balanced.

Overall, although the valuation differentiation in the second half of 2020 is slightly balanced, the current valuation gap is still at the historical extreme. Under the extreme valuation differentiation environment, the manufacturing industry continues to repair, monetary policy returns to normal,interest rateIt is more difficult for the central hub to experience a sharp downturn, which is conducive to maintaining a balance of general styles.In this environment, equity investors need to reduce theLong termExposure, pay more attention to the certainty of short-term growth.

Relatively speaking,CICC、Northeast SecuritiesAll believe that there are opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market.CICCIt is believed that the new economic leaders attract funds from mainland fund managers to go south, and it is expected that the new economic leaders of Hong Kong stocks, especially high-quality and scarce targets, will still be favored. As mainland new economy companies continue to be listed in Hong Kong in recent years, and more and more Chinese concept stocks choose to return to the east in an increasingly complex external environment, the proportion of new economy companies in the Hong Kong stock market will gradually increase, and Hong Kong stocks will gradually become mainland investors Invest in the bridgehead of China’s new economy. At the same time, Hong Kong stocks have new economic leaders with relatively scarce A-shares, and companies with unique characteristics in Hong Kong stocks, which are still very attractive to investors in Hong Kong stocks in the south.

　　Northeast SecuritiesIt is pointed out that Hong Kong stocks have been booming recently, not only the continuous rise of Meituan and Xiaomi, which are unique in the Hong Kong market, but also the rise of Hong Kong stocks corresponding to AH shares. At present, the premium rate of AH shares is around 133. From the perspective of valuation, the premium rate still has downside, that is, the Hong Kong stock market is still dominant. From the perspective of absolute valuation, the current Hang Seng Index is 17 times P/E and 1.45 P/B. Historical highs are still some distance away; historically, the high point of the Hang Seng Index P/E ratio has generally exceeded 18 times and touched the line of 20 times. Considering that the proportion of technology stocks among the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index has increased, the peak of the bubble is still far away.

(Source: Brokerage China)

(Editor in charge: DF078)