3500亿的领导人震惊了天空，连续最弱的尹先生每月下跌近40％！ 那个“大眉大眼”的助教？ _东方财富网

原始标题：假期前A股最大的“空头”敞口：3500亿领导人连续12天震惊了天空，最弱的一个月下跌了近40％！ 那个“大眉大眼”的助教？

概要

[The350billionleaderisshakingtheskyandtheweakestwith12consecutiveYindropsnearly40%everymonth!TheTAwith”bigeyebrowsandbigeyes”?】AstheChineseNewYearholidayapproachesthephenomenonof”iceandfire”intheA-sharemarketbecomesmoreandmoreobviousInthiswaveof”split”marketsecuritiesfirmsthathavealwaysbeenknownas”bullmarketbearers”havealsofallenintothe”ice””OntheothersideAmongthemCITICSecuritiestheleaderwithamarketcapitalizationof300billionhasreceivedanastonishing12consecutiveYinonthedailyK-linechartwhichisreallyincredible(DailyEconomicNews)

As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, the phenomenon of “ice and fire” in the A-share market becomes more and more obvious: on the one hand, liquor,bankStocks such as “Bao Tuan” continue to record highs; on the other hand, electronic and technology stocks in small and medium caps are stacking new lows.

Mr. Bull’s Eye noticed that in this wave of “split” market, there has always been a “bull market bearer”.BrokerageThe stock actually fell to the “ice” side.Among them, the leader with a market value of 300 billionCITIC SecuritiesEven more amazing 12 consecutive Yin was collected on the daily K-line chart, which is really incredible!

In addition, most of the stocks of brokerage stocks were also very weak for more than a month during the year. What is going on?

　　CITIC SecuritiesEmbarrassed out of the rare 12 consecutive Yin

As of yesterday’s close, the leading brokerage firmCITIC SecuritiesIt closed down 0.26% to 27.02 yuan per share. Although it was only a slight drop, it was seen from the daily K-line chart that the investors who held it felt “to the heart”:

CITIC SecuritiesRecent daily candlestick chart

As can be seen from the graph, since the shocking heavy volume surged 9.39% on January 12,CITIC SecuritiesThe stock price began to fall apart.Receive overcast from January 21DojiStart, as of yesterday,CITIC Securities12 Yinxian lines have been collected continuously, and the cumulative maximum drop during the period has exceeded 16%! This is also a rare scene in the historical trend of CITIC Securities’ stock price.

At the same time, the share price of CITIC Securities has temporarily fallen below the half-year line that represents a long-term trend, and has also hit a new low in seven months since the beginning of July last year.

As of February 5th, the ranking of stocks in the two cities for consecutive days

Statistics show that as of February 5, the two citiesShareThe 23 stocks had a streak of 10 days or more. Among them, CITIC Securities ranked in the 5th camp with an 11-day streak (January 21Rise and fallIt rose slightly by 0.23% and closed the negative cross star). What’s more embarrassing is that among the 23 stocks with the top losing days, only CITIC Securities has a total market value of more than 40 billion yuan, reaching nearly 350 billion yuan, and the other 22 are small and medium-sized stocks.

　　Brokerage stocks generally fell during the year

CITIC Securities’ “stepping on the pit” is just a microcosm of the recent poor performance of individual stocks in the entire brokerage industry.

Brokerage Concept Index Recent Daily K-line Chart

Judging from the recent daily K-line chart of the Dongcai Brokerage Concept Index, the overall shape is very similar to that of CITIC Securities, and even weaker: it fell below the half-year line as early as February 1.

Although CITIC Securities received 12 negative lines in a row, it is far from the weakest among the 43 brokerage stocks that have been counted based on its performance during the year.

The ranking of securities stocks’ decline since January 1

The data shows that as of yesterday, 43 brokerage stocks were almost “annihilated” during the year, with the only exception beingStart a business“Leader” of the boardOriental wealth, Realized a 14.1% increase during the year. In addition, 3 brokerage stocks fell more than 30%, 12 brokerage stocks fell between 20% and 30%, 20 brokerage stocks fell between 10% and 20%, and 7 brokerage stocks fell within 10% (of which Including CITIC Securities, which fell 8.10%).With the same periodShanghai IndexCompared with the 0.67% increase, the performance of brokerage stocks can be said to be “horrible.”

Niuyan Jun noticed that 11 of the above-mentioned brokerage stocks have a total market value of more than 100 billion yuan, and their weakness will undoubtedly form a greater drag on the broader market. The former “bull market bearer” turned into the biggest “short” when the market strengthened. What is going on?

　　PerformanceFavorable funds have flowed out

From a fundamental point of view, what puzzles Bulleye Junbei is that there is no obvious negative for brokerage stocks, but positives.

According to the data, as of February 5, a total of 31 listed securities companies have released 2020 performance forecasts.Most brokers will achieve in 2020Net profitwithOperating incomeDouble growth,Everbright Securities、Oriental wealth、Industrial SecuritiesWait for 2020Net profitIncreased by more than 100%.

Image source: CITIC Securities 2020 Annual Results Bulletin

CITIC Securities’ 2020 annual performance report released on January 23 shows that revenue and deduction are not netprofitMany important indicatorsYoYThe growth rate is above 20%, but the stock price started to fall continuously after the announcement of the performance report.

After inquiring the market capital data statistics, Niuyan Jun found that in the marketStockAgainst the background of funds tossing back and forth,Main forceCash flowOutsourcing is the fundamental reason for the sharp correction in securities stocks this year.

　　The data shows that according to a rough calculation of nearly 20 trading days, among the 104 second-tier industries of Shenwan, the major net outflow of funds from the second-tier securities industries topped the list, reaching 63.1 billion yuan.

So, where did the main funds go? The data shows that in the past 20 trading days,bank, Tourism comprehensive, air transportation, hotel II industry received net purchase of main funds, of whichbankThe level II industry has the highest amount, reaching 15.1 billion yuan.

　　Institutions are still optimistic

However, institutions continue to be optimistic about the future performance of brokerage stocks.

Bohai SecuritiesAnalystWang Lei published on February 2 the titled “Securities Industry Monthly Report: High Performance in 2020, the callback will not change the upward trend of the industry’s prosperity”Research reportSaid: “Listed brokerages have successively disclosed 2020 performance forecasts and express reports. The average year-on-year growth rate of operating income and net profit attributable to the parent is about 30% and 40%. The high performance growth will provide support for the valuation of the sector.Recently, due to the expected tightening of liquidity, the performance of securities firms has been under pressure, but the short-term correction will not change the long-term development trend of the industry.SFC system work in 2021meetingThe “Action Plan for Building a High Standard Market System” issued by the Office of the Central Committee and the Office of the State Council once again mentioned the importance and work deployment of the development of the capital market, comprehensively promote the registration system for stock issuance, vigorously cultivate institutional investors, guide long-term funds to enter the market, and establish normalcy The delisting mechanism is of great significance to the formation of a high-quality, large-scale capital market, and is expected to bring a new round of development opportunities for securities firms in business space and business models. Suggested attention: 1) CITIC Securities, the leading securities firm with leading comprehensive strength,Huatai Securities; 2) Benefit from the expected increase in residents’ financial asset allocationthe InternetBrokerageOriental wealth。”

Liu Min, an analyst at Caixin Securities, issued a research report on February 3 entitled “Securities Industry Comment: 19 companies are expected to increase by more than 50%, with strict provision for impairment and risk control”, stating that,Driven by substantial growth in self-employment, brokerage, investment banking and other performanceBroker performanceHigh growth, withdraw assetsProvision for impairmentStrictly control risks and maintain the industry’s “synchronized market” rating.On the main investment line, we recommend focusing on leading high-quality securities firms and small and medium-sized securities firms with outstanding business characteristics. Investment main line 1: Focus on top securities firms with stable operations, strong capital strength and obvious policy advantages.Recommend CITIC Securities andHuatai Securities. Investment main line 2: Focus on securities firms that adapt to transformation and development and whose models are difficult to replicate. Recommend Eastern Fortune.

How should brokerage stocks go next? It is indeed an important issue that may directly affect market trends.

(Source: Daily Economic News)

(Editor in charge: DF506)