央行14天反向回购的考虑因素是什么？ “无左或无右”货币政策的含义是什么？ _东方财富网

概要

[Whatisthereasonforthecentralbank’sfinal14-dayreverserepurchase?Whatisthemeaningofthe”noleftorright”monetarypolicy?WiththeapproachoftheSpringFestivalholidaythecentralbankfinallyrestartedthe14-dayreverserepoOnFebruary4thecentralbankissuedanannouncementstatingthatinordertomaintainstableliquiditybeforetheSpringFestivalonFebruary42021a14-dayreverserepooperationof100billionyuanwascarriedoutthroughinterestratebiddingandthewinninginterestratewas235%Onthatday100billionyuanofreverserepurchaseexpiredsotherewasnonetliquidityinvestment

With the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, the central bank finally restarted the 14-day reverseRepurchase。

On February 4, the central bank announcedannouncementSaid that in order to maintain the stable liquidity before the Spring Festival, February 4, 2021interest rateThe bidding method carried out a 14-day reverse of 100 billion yuanRepurchaseoperating,Winning bidinterest rateIt is 2.35%. On that day, 100 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired, so there was no net liquidity investment.

From the central bank before the Spring Festival in previous yearsOpen marketFrom the perspective of liquidity operations, the 14-day reverse repurchase will basically be placed before the holiday to meetmarketCross-section funding needs.Since last Friday, the central bank ended four consecutive days of large-scale liquidity withdrawals, and promoted funds through net liquidity injectionsinterest rateSignificantly down, currentlybankThe overnight and 7-day interest rates of the Interchange have returned to the normal fluctuation range within 3%, and the “upside down” of the overnight interest rate and the 7-day interest rate has returned to normal, indicating that the current market liquidity is reasonable and moderate.

However, although the funding interest rate has returned to the normal range and fluctuates around the policy interest rate, from the perspective of the central bank’s liquidity investment, the liquidity investment before the Spring Festival this year is relatively restrained, that is, liquidity is guaranteed.supply“Not lacking but not overflowing” reflects “currencyThe policy insists on stabilizing the word, not left or right”.

　　What are the considerations for restarting 14-day reverse repurchase today?

The central bank finally restarted the 14-day reverse repurchase operation to meet the market’s cross-section funding needs. Previously, the market had high expectations for the restart of the 14-day reverse repurchase this week. The reason for choosing this time to restart the 14-day reverse repurchase was to smooth out the funding after the holiday to avoid the excessive concentration of funds after the holiday. “Crowding” and the unnecessary capital fluctuations caused by this.

　　Everbright Securitieschieffixed incomeAnalystZhang XuBrokerageThe Chinese reporter said that the previous failure was because the time window for placing 14-day funds has not yet reached: on the one hand, the 14-day funds invested before January 28 will not be able to cross the Spring Festival; on the other hand, January 28 The 14-day funds invested by February 4th will be concentrated on the first trading day after the holiday (ie February 18th). On that day, the MLF of 200 billion yuan has expired and there is likely to be a 7-day period. The reverse repurchase has expired, so placing it at this stage may bring continuous pressure on that day.

“In this way, a few days later can spread the maturity as much as possible, and it is more reasonable at the mercy of liquidity. In fact, in the past few years, the central bank has been in reverse repurchase of 14 days and longer periods. Funds can basically cover the entire Spring Festival holiday before starting to invest.” Zhang Xu said.

However, the scale of restarting the 14-day reverse repurchase operation today is not large, and it completely hedges the amount due on the day.Although the central bank has three consecutivethe workAchieve net liquidity investment every day to promotebankThe interest rate of funds from the time and exchanges has declined rapidly, but after overnight and 7-day interest rates return to near the policy rate, the central bank will not intentionally push interest rates to continue to fall. Instead, they will start to stabilize funds by reducing the net investment this Wednesday.Interest rate level。

On February 3, the central bank’s open market operations ended three consecutive timesWorking dayOn February 4, the 14-day reverse repurchase was restarted on February 4, but it was only a complete hedge against the amount due on the day. As of the close, DR001Weighted average interest rate2.07%, a slight increase of 20.8BP over the previous day; DR007 reported 2.31%, a slight increase of 19.9BP over the previous day.

　　Monetary policy will be normalized or clearer after March

This week, the central bank’s relatively restrained liquidity injection once again reflects the sound monetary policy thinking. Sun Guofeng, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank, recently wrote in China Finance that the key to doing a good job of monetary policy in 2021 is to have a deep understanding of the flexible, precise, reasonable, and appropriate orientation of a sound monetary policy. To maintain the continuity, stability and sustainability of policies, it is necessary to maintain the necessary support for economic recovery and to avoid flooding. Persist in “stable word at the head”, maintain strategic determination, neither left nor right.

Sun Guofeng emphasized that the domestic and international situation in 2021 will remain very complicated, and the monetary policy will face many challenges. Monetary policy must adhere to a prudent overall orientation, adhere to the “stability”, maintain strategic determination, and neither left nor right. It is necessary to flexibly adjust the intensity, rhythm and focus of monetary policy in accordance with the actual situation of economic development, smooth economic fluctuations, and deal with many uncertainties. Continue to play the role of the structural monetary policy tool system, and accurately increase financial support for key areas and weak links.maintaincurrency supplySame as the growth rate of social financingNominal economyThe growth rate is basically matched, the interest rate is maintained at an appropriate level, the macro leverage ratio is basically stable, and the relationship between economic recovery and risk prevention is handled properly.

“It is expected that the central bank will maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity before the Spring Festival, and policies will gradually normalize after March.” Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS, said that the central bank’s liquidity operations in January were tighter than market expectations. Because of the substantial increase in fiscal expenditures at the end of the month, it may also be due to the need to prevent risks. influenced by,bankbetweenMarket interest rateIt climbed sharply, and did not fall back until this week.

Wang Tao believes that considering the uncertainties related to the epidemic and the high demand for liquidity during the Spring Festival, it is expected that the central bank should use a variety of liquidity tools to ensure a reasonable and adequate market liquidity before the holiday. After March, the domestic epidemic should be better controlled, and domestic growth momentum is expected to rebound significantly. At the same time, the global epidemic situation should become clearer, and the path of policy normalization may be clearer by then.

(Source: Brokerage China)

(Editor in charge: DF142)