“ 2月8日现象”即将到来，这对新基金的降温和令人眼花azz乱

概要

[The”February8Phenomenon”iscomingandthenewfundsarecoolingdownThedatashowsthatasofFebruary3atotalof143fundshavebeenestablishedsince2021withanissuancescaleof533279billionyuanofwhichtheequityfundissuancescaleinJanuaryexceeded4500100millionyuansettinganewrecordforthemonthlyissuanceofequityfundsSinceFebruarythesignsofcoolingofnewfundshavebeenrevealedquietlyandthesubscriptionofsomefundshasfallenshortofexpectationsandthe”February8phenomenon”ismoreobvious(ChinaSecuritiesJournal)

The data shows that as of February 3, since 2021Share143 onlyfundEstablished, the issue size reached 533.279 billion yuan, of which the equity in JanuaryFund issuanceThe scale exceeds 450 billion yuan, setting a new record for the monthly issuance of equity funds. Since February,New fundThe signs of cooling are quietly revealed, and some fund subscriptions are less than expected, and the “February 8 phenomenon” is more obvious.

Market analysts pointed out that it should be a slow and gradual process for investors to enter the market through funds and new funds to inject incremental capital into the market. New funds are maintained at an appropriate pace, which will play a “small and long-term flow for medium and long-term investment and industry development.” “Effect.

Equity fund issuance is popular

According to data, 122 funds were established in January alone, with an issuance scale of 490.140 billion yuan, which is the second highest monthly issuance scale in history after July 2020.Among the 122 funds established in January, 105 equity funds (32Stock fundAnd 73Hybrid fund), the issuance scale is 450.276 billion yuan, the highest level of equity fund issuance in a single month.

From the perspective of individual funds, with the help of the spring market, among the newly established funds in January, there have been 12 explosive funds with an issuance scale of more than 10 billion yuan.Among them, GF Balanced Choice A and E Fund’s competitive advantageenterpriseA. The issuance scale of these four funds, Boshi Huixing’s one-year holding and Yinhua Xinjia’s two-year holding period, exceeded 13 billion yuan.

Entering February, the momentum of the new fund remains strong. On February 1 and 2, the funds continued to chase the value of Nanfang Xingrun for one year to hold the mixed fund, HarvestqualityReturnHybridFunds and other popularproduct. According to the data, since February 3, there are still 55 funds to be issued that have already been scheduled. The start date of the fundraising is scheduled to March 22, and the deadline for fundraising is scheduled to May 4. Of the 55 funds to be launched, 27 of the above-mentioned funds have announced their raising caps, and 15 of the funds have raised caps of more than 8 billion yuan. Among them, 3 funds (E Fund holds for one year, Guofu Xinghai Return, E Fund Vision The upper limit of growth) is set at more than 10 billion yuan.

Huicheng Fund stated that since 2020,Public offeringThe professionalism of the fund as an institutional investor has been recognized by all parties. In the medium and long term, equity funds have broad development prospects. With the gradual consolidation of China’s capital market infrastructure and systems, equity market investment will usher in greater room for development in the future.

　　Debon FundAlso believe that in the foreseeable future, to residentsFinancial managementThe incremental capital led by it is expected to enter the market in large quantities and will become the main investment force.Raised fundsThe issuance scale will continue to be at a high level.

Signs of cooling appear

Since February, the new development fund has remained hot, but signs of cooling have quietly revealed.The data shows that the number of newly issued funds this week (February 1 to 5) is 30, of which 15 are concentrated on this Monday (February 1), but judging from the situation on that day, except for the above Except for the few popular products mentioned, most of the rest are sent to products with high expectations (such as those to be managed by Yang RuiwenInvescoThe Great Wall Growth Leading Hybrid Fund, and the six-month holding hybrid fund of GF Juhong managed by Li Wei, etc.), the subscription situation was less than expected, and the “February 8 phenomenon” was more obvious.

“The enthusiasm for the issuance of new funds has indeed cooled down, whether it is the scale of individual fund subscriptions, the number of’sun bases’ or the marketing enthusiasm, all have decreased.” Tianxiang Investment ConsultantsFund researchMember Yang Jiaxing said that the cooling phenomenon may be related tofund companyIt is related to factors such as market judgment and consideration of the pace of opening new funds. Many large funds newly established since January have faced the challenge of establishing positions in relatively high positions in the market. Huicheng Fund stated that the current equity market lacks momentum, and the hot equity fund issuance may not continue in the short term.

　　Southern FundDeputy General Manager and Chief Equity Investment Officer Shi Bo pointed out that from the perspective of yield, investors need to lower the expected yield in 2021. Historically, the average annualized return rate of long-term equity funds is about 15%. Average return rate of public equity funds in 2020MedianIt is about 58%, and it is about 40% in 2019. After two consecutive years, it has actually exceeded the 100% rate of return.

But Shibo also believes that lowering income expectations does not mean not watchingGood futuremarket. He said that the products managed by excellent fund managers will have a certain amount of excess returns. In the long run, the income level of the fund is still very impressive, and it is expected to outperform other major types of assets.

Be wary of “do it fast”

“After the fund year of 2020, public funds are rising rapidly and are expected to continue to satisfy residentsSavingsInvestment demand transferred to the capital market. However, this trend will be a slow and gradual process, and it is not necessary and impossible to achieve’success in one stroke’ by issuing new funds in a short time. “A market analyst in Shenzhen told a reporter from China Securities News that since the beginning of 2021, under the background of rising prices in the spring, the fundthe companyTaking the opportunity to intensively issue new funds, “some companies even expressed that they will strive to complete the new fund issuance plan for the whole year before the Spring Festival.” However, fund issuance is only one part of the operation. Certain influence. The development of domestic public funds has only a history of more than 20 years. Compared with the “big work and fast development”, the “long water flow” may be more important.

Hu Lifeng, head of the Galaxy Securities Fund Research Center, believes that in 2019 and 2020, the return rate of stockholders is significantly lower than that of the basic citizens, and a large number of stock shareholders have turned into basic citizens. It is estimated that in 2021, the issuance of stocks to funds will reach 2 trillion yuan, and continuous sales will reach 1 trillion yuan. After investors recognize the value of long-term investment in public funds, more funds are expected to flow into the stock market through public funds.

Yang Yuanchun, Dean of Yingmi Fund Research Institute, said that Christians are chasingPerformanceThere is nothing wrong with outstanding star fund managers. It should be noted that they need to look at the real performance of fund managers in different market styles in the time dimension of more than five years. The criterion of outstanding performance is not only the champion, but also the players who can occupy the top one-third of the same type of fund managers in the long-term ranking.

(Source: China Securities Journal)

(Editor in charge: DF512)