1400亿只大白马跌到了极限，兄弟俩全都倒下了！ 中金公司和高盛连续降级怎么办？ _东方财富网

原标题：稀有！ 1400亿只大白马跌到了极限，兄弟俩全都倒下了！ 中金公司和高盛降低了评级。 现在是什么状况？

概要

[140billionbigwhitehorsefelltothelimitandallthebrothersfellafter!WhathappenedtoCICCandGoldmanSachs’successivedowngrades?】Duetothesubstantialpre-lossofperformanceShanghaiAirporttheleadingA-shareairporthasarareone-worddroplimitwith520000ordersInadditionGuangzhouBaiyunAirportandShenzhenAirportalsofell

due toPerformanceSignificant pre-loss, leading A-share airportShanghai AirportThere was a rare one-word limit, with 520,000 orders.In addition, GuangzhouBaiyun Airport，Shenzhen AirportFollowed the decline.

February 1,Shanghai Airport(600009) One word drop limit, on the newsthe companyCICCGoldman SachsDowngrades the rating, and the company announces its 2020 full-year performance pre-loss on January 30announcement.Coincidentally, the other dayShenzhen Airport、Baiyun Airport、Xiamen Airport、Beijing Capital AirportHave also weakened and turned green, and behind this is the aviation airport under the epidemicenterpriseBusiness is dismal.

　　Shanghai AirportRare word limit

Opening on February 1, Shanghai Airport opened its lower limit,Baiyun AirportFell more than 8%,Shenzhen Airport、Air China、Eastern AirlinesWait for individual stocks to weaken.

As of the morning’s close, 520,000 lots of sell orders were still firmly under the Shanghai airport’s limit of falling. The company’s total market value was 137 billion yuan, 71.10 yuan per share.butAir China、Eastern Airlines、southern AirlineWaiting for individual stocks to turn red.

On the news,Goldman Sachsthe companyAnalystJustin Kwok downgraded Shanghai Airport’s rating to sell, with a target price of 73 yuan. The previous rating was buy.

In addition,CICCLatest releaseResearch reportAccording to the report, since it will take time for the international line to resume, referring to the “Supplementary Agreement”, Shanghai Airport is expected toduty freeRevenue is only 1.2 billion yuan, which is lower than previous expectations, and is revised down for 2021profit prediction95% to 150 million yuan. For the first time, a profit forecast of 3.52 billion yuan for 2022 is introduced. The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 43.3 times in 2022.Considering that short-term profit recovery will take time and the next 5 yearsTax-free incomeAll are lower than previous expectations, and the current valuation is relatively high. Shanghai Airport is downgraded to neutral and the target price is lowered by 6.7% to RMB 70 accordingly.RMB, Corresponding to 38.5 times P/E ratio in 2022, corresponding to 11.4% downside.

Last week,China FreeAn announcement was issued at the same time as Shanghai Airport, and the two parties signedDuty Free ShopThe supplementary agreement for rent, according to the agreement,China FreeThe rent paid to Shanghai Airport last year decreased by 70% year-on-year.At the same time, Shanghai Airport disclosed the 2020 performance report, which is expected to beLoss1.29 billion yuan to a loss of 1.21 billion yuan, deducting nonNet profitEstimated loss of 1.41 billion yuan to 1.33 billion yuan.

July 19, 2018China FreeThe holding subsidiary Nisshang Duty Free (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. was selected for the duty-free shop project of Shanghai Pudong International Airport, and the two parties signed the transfer of the duty-free shop management rights on September 7 of that yearcontract. In 2020, due to public health emergencies and other factors, the duty-free business of Shanghai Airport will suffer a greater impact. After negotiation, Rishang Shanghai and Shanghai Airport agreed to revise the original contract and agreed to sign the “Shanghai Pudong International Airport Duty Free Shop Project” Supplementary Agreement to the Operation Right Transfer Contract.

According to the supplementary agreement, when the actual international passenger flow in the current month ≤ the average monthly actual international passenger flow in 2019 × 80%, the “monthly actual fee” is charged according to the “monthly actual sales commission”, and the “monthly actual sales commission” is based on the “per capita contribution” and “monthly The “actual international passenger flow” is measured and calculated, and adjustment indicators such as “passenger flow adjustment coefficient” and “area adjustment coefficient” are included.

　　Major airports are operating poorly

It is not an exception that Shanghai Airport has seen a rare drop. On the same day, Shenzhen Airport, Baiyun Airport,Xiamen Airport、Beijing Capital AirportHave weakened, and as of press time,Beijing Capital AirportFell more than 10%, Baiyun Airport fell more than 8%, Shenzhen Airport fell only 3%,Xiamen AirportFell 1.59%.

From a fundamental point of view, the 2020 performance of the aforementioned airport concept stocks all experienced a sharp decline or even a substantial loss.

Among them, Shanghai Airport is expected to lose 1.29 billion yuan to 1.21 billion yuan in 2020, the same period last yearNet profitIt is 5.03 billion yuan. The company said that since 2020, the global aviation industry has faced severe challenges due to the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. The industry has been severely affected by the epidemic and faced unprecedented consequences. The epidemic has a great impact on the company’s business development and customer operations. Pudong Airport’s passenger throughput and aircraft takeoffs and landings have dropped significantly. Starting from July 2020, as the domestic epidemic is gradually brought under control, the business volume of domestic routes has gradually improved. However, due to the global epidemic situation, the business volume of international routes is still greatly affected, and the company’s operating pressure continues to increase.

Baiyun Airport is expected to be net in 2020profitIt was a loss of 302 million yuan to a loss of 247 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of -128.14% to -123.03%, and a larger loss after deducting non-net profits. The estimated loss is 719 million yuan to 664 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of -170.58% to -165.18 %, the company said that this performance reduction is mainly due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in 2020.

Shenzhen Airport is operating well among its peers and will not lose money, but its performance is still falling sharply. The company predicts that the net profit for 2020 will be 22.6 million yuan to 33.7 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 94.32% to 96.19%. The net profit after deduction will be 10.5 million yuan to 15.6 million yuan, and the earnings per share will be 0.011 yuan to 0.016 yuan. The company said that due to the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, passenger throughput and takeoffs and landings have dropped significantly.Operating incomeDrastically reduced grossinterest ratereduce. However, in the second half of 2020, with the effective control of the domestic epidemic and economic recovery, the company’s passenger throughput and takeoffs and landings rebounded rapidly, and operating performance improved significantly compared with the first half of the year, but the annual operating performance still fell sharply year-on-year.

Xiamen Airport expects the company’s net profit in 2020 to be 147 million to 183 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64.69% to 71.64%.according toCompany AnnouncementIn 2020, due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the production and operation data of Xiamen Airport has dropped significantly. In 2020, a total of 138 thousand flight movements, passenger throughput of 16.7102 million passengers, and cargo and mail throughput of 278,300 tons were completed, a year-on-year decrease of 27.83%. 39.04%, 15.79%, resulting in a significant decline in non-aeronautical income such as aviation income and lease income.

　　Can civil aviation stocks fall?

Aviation companies are closely linked to airport companies. As of now, many airlines have disclosed their 2020 performance pre-loss announcements.

　　Air ChinaIt is estimated that there will be a loss of 13.5 billion yuan to 15.5 billion yuan in 2020, deducting non-Net lossAbout 13.8 billion to 15.9 billion yuan;Eastern AirlinesIt is estimated that in 2020, there will be a loss of 9.8 billion to 12.5 billion yuan, and a profit of 3.195 billion yuan in the same period last year;southern AirlineIt is estimated that the loss in 2020 will be 7.907 billion yuan to 10.861 billion yuan, and the loss will be 8.423 billion yuan to 11.764 billion yuan after deduction;Spring AirlinesIt is estimated that there will be a loss of 538 million yuan to 629 million yuan in 2020.Juneyao AirlinesThis is no exception. It is estimated that there will be a loss of 490 million yuan to 420 million yuan in 2020.

Major airlines stated in their performance forecasts released last week that the decline in performance was mainly due to the huge impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the global civil aviation industry. When the epidemic becomes more stable and travel returns to normal, airline revenue may improve.

Previously, in November 2020, the International Air Transport Association had predicted that the global aviation industry would lose 118.5 billion U.S. dollars in 2020.ToAir ChinaAs an example, in 2020, the company’s annual capacity and revenue passenger-kilometers decreased by 37.59% and 46.15%, respectively. Among them, the capacity investment of international routes dropped by 80.63%, and the revenue passenger-kilometers dropped by 84.88%.

Recently, epidemic prevention and control measures have been upgraded in many places to encourage local Chinese New Year during the Spring Festival. Therefore, the market is generally looking at passenger demand during the Spring Festival. In 2020, the civil aviation industry completed 420 million passenger traffic, down 36.7% year-on-year. In December, the civil aviation industry completed 42.32 million passenger traffic, down 19.8% year-on-year.meetingThe overall transportation goal for 2021 was put forward, including the total transportation turnover of 106.2 billion ton-kilometers, returning to more than 80% before the epidemic.

The analysis believes that in the short term, airport aviation is currently in the stage of unfavorable clearance. Follow-up domestic aviation is expected to recover quickly after the Spring Festival, but international aviation will take time. Generally speaking, aviation companies are affected by the epidemic due to the weak core business. maximum.

On the morning of February 1, when airport concept stocks generally fell sharply,Spring Airlines、Juneyao Airlines、Eastern Airlines、China Airlines、Air China、southern AirlineThe trend is firm.

(Source: e company official micro)

(Editor in charge: DF064)