原标题：五个问题和五个答案，您如何看待春节前央行的流动性操作？
概要
[CITICSecurities:Fivequestionsandfiveanswershowdoyouviewthecentralbank’sliquidityoperationsbeforetheSpringFestival?】Byobservingthehistoricaltimingofthecentralbank’sliquidityinjectionweexpectthatfromFebruary1stthecentralbankwillbegintolaunchaclearliquidityinjectionbehaviortohelpsmooththeliquiditygapbeforetheholidayItisexpectedthatbeforetheSpringFestivalthecentralbankwillreleaseabout17trillionyuaninliquiditythrough14/28-dayOMO+MLF+inclusivefinancialdirectionalcutsandmaintainthejudgmentofamildpolicyexitthisyearItisexpectedtoseethepossibilityofchangesinpolicyinterestratesduringtheyearLower
Core view
At the end of January, affected by events such as the central bank’s net investment fell short of expectations,marketinterest rateWith the rapid rise, the market is worried about changes in the liquidity environment before the Spring Festival.By observing the historical timing of the central bank’s liquidity injection, we expect that from February 1st, the central bank will begin to initiate significant liquidity injectionbehavior, To help smooth the liquidity gap before the holiday.It is expected that the central bank will pass 14/28 days OMO+MLF+ inclusive finance before the Spring FestivalTargeted RRRInvest about 1.7 trillion yuan in liquidity in the same way, and maintain the judgment of a moderate exit from the policy this year. It is expected to see the policy within the year.interest rateThe possibility of change is low.
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Q1: Why is the market concerned about changes in the liquidity environment? ——Recent marketinterest rateThe obvious increase is largely related to the lower-than-expected net investment of the central bank.Since mid-January, the central bankOpen marketThe operation gradually shifted from net investment to net withdrawal (Figure 1), with a net return of 216.5 billion yuan in January.bankbetweenMarket liquidityThe DR001 interest rate rose to 3.06% on January 28, breaking the SLF overnight interest rate, and the DR007 interest rate also rose to more than 3%, significantly exceeding the 7-day OMO interest rate (Figure 2).Although the central bank put a 7-day inverse on January 29Repurchase100 billion yuan, achieving a net investment of 98 billion yuan that day, but as the current stage is approaching the Spring Festival, the market is still concerned about the central bank’s liquidity operations before the Spring Festival and has concerns about the recent liquidity environment.
Q2: How do you look at the central bank’s liquidity injection rhythm this round? ——Compared with the historical liquidity during the Spring Festival period, the pace of this year’s liquidity before the Spring Festival is obviously late, and there is a high probability that unconventional methods such as CRA and TLF will not be used to supplement liquidity.Judging from the portfolio of historical liquidity tools, the central bank can passOverall RRR cut, CRA, TLF, Inclusive Finance’s targeted RRR cut, MLF and OMO, etc. to deal with the liquidity pressure before the Spring Festival (Figure 4). But from the point of view, since the Spring Festival holiday is less than two weeks away at this stage, the probability of liquidity placement through CRA, TLF, etc. is already small (such tools are usually operated 1 month before the holiday), and A comprehensive RRR cut should not have operational conditions at this stage. Therefore, it is expected that the central bank will have a high probability of passing the 14/28-day OMO+MLF+ inclusive financial directional reduction transition before the Spring Festival in 2021. In addition, we compared the similarities and differences between the current round of liquidity placement and the past two years. It can be seen that, compared with the Spring Festival in the past few years, the central bank usually increases liquidity investment around the -19th and -11th of the Spring Festival holiday (Figure 3). However, from the observation of the situation this year, the current round of liquidity The timing of sexual release has been significantly behind the same period in history. Since the beginning of next week (February 1) is approaching the second node (-11th) at which we have observed a significant increase in liquidity, we expect to see a larger net investment next week to ease the current stage Liquidity tensions.
Q3: How is the liquidity environment before the Spring Festival this year different from previous years? ——1) “Chinese New Year in situ” resulted in lower pressure to withdraw cash during the Spring Festival than in previous years; 2) The timing of tax payment was staggered with the time before the Spring Festival, and the pressure was less;BondIssuance is significantly reduced compared to the beginning of 2020, and the impact on liquidity occupation is limited.On the whole, we believe that there are three obvious differences between the liquidity environment before the Spring Festival this year and previous years, which may also be the reason for the late liquidity of the central bank. 1) The Spring Festival this year is quite different from the past. Due to the encouragement of “Chinese New Year in situ”, we expect that the proportion of non-local people returning home during the Spring Festival this year will be significantly reduced. Residents will reduce the demand for centralized cash withdrawal before the Spring Festival to a certain extent, resulting in the timing of the Spring Festival this year. The cash withdrawal pressure is lower than that of the same period in previous years; 2) This year’s New Year’s Eve is on February 11, which is a certain distance from the centralized payment date and tax payment day in late January, so there will be no “overlap” of more concentrated liquidity demand , Which has also slowed down the central bank’s need for concentrated liquidity; 3) Compared with the same period last year, because local special bonds have not been issued in advance at this stage, soGovernment BondsThe impact of issuance on the formation and occupation of liquidity is expected to be relatively limited, and to a certain extent alleviate the pressure of the central bank to invest in liquidity.
Q4: How much liquidity will the central bank release before the Spring Festival? ——It is expected that the central bank will pass the 14/28-day OMO+MLF+ inclusive financial directional reduction transition before the Spring Festival this year. The liquidity investment scale should be around 1.7 trillion yuan, of which the net investment next week is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan.From our observation of the liquidity investment during the Spring Festival holiday in the past years, the scale of the central bank’s liquidity investment across the Spring Festival holiday from 2018 to 2020 will be between 2.3-2.7 trillion. Due to the three characteristics of the liquidity environment before the Spring Festival this year analyzed above, we expect that this year’s liquidity investment scale will be smaller than the average level of the past three years. It is estimated that the scale of liquidity investment before the Spring Festival this year will be about 1.7 trillion, of which it is estimated that the net investment will be about 1 trillion next week. Served through 14/28-day OMO operations. With reference to the experience of the past two years (the central bank has invested a total of 180 billion yuan in 14-day OMO from the 5th in 2019; from the 9th in 2020, the central bank has invested a total of 1.18 trillion yuan in 14-day OMO). The period approaching the Spring Festival will be mainly through 14-day OMO and other methods for transition to supplement market liquidity.
Q5: “Tightcurrency“Will be transmitted to “tightcredit“?-There is a high probability that it will not happen, and the judgment of a moderate exit from this year’s policy remains unchanged. It is expected that the possibility of seeing a change in policy interest rates during the year is low.From our observations, the “tightcurrency“It’s not the norm. It is expected that the overall liquidity environment will tend toimproveAlthough it will not return to the “easy” level in early January, it is expected that the DR007 interest rate should gradually return to the center of the 7-day OMO interest rate. At this stage, the “tight currency” that lasts for about two weeks should not be transmitted to the “tight credit.”Although subject to special debtYoYThe impact of less increase, JanuaryCompany fusionThe growth rate may fall by about 0.6%, but non-financialenterpriseCredit expansion will remain at the recent level and will not shrink significantly.We maintain our judgment of a moderate decline in social financing by 2 percentage points to 11.3% (year-end value) throughout the year. At the same time, we expect to see policy interest rates andDeposit reserveThe possibility of change in the rate is low, and the “gentle exit” will be a period of time in the future.futuresThe main tone of currency policy.
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(Source: CITICS Macro Research)
(Editor in charge: DF064)
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