原标题：流行之后，哪些行业趋势正在加速？ （天凤宏歌宋雪涛）
概要
[TianfengMacroSongXuetao:Whichindustrytrendsareacceleratingaftertheepidemic?】Withtheimplementationofvaccinesin2021theglobaleconomywillusherinanacceleratedrecoverybuttheimpactoftheepidemiconhumansocietyisfarfromoverSomeemergingdemandsmaydissipatequicklyafterabriefflashandthetrajectoryofrelatedindustrieswillcontinuetomoveforwardalongtheoriginalpathButmoredemandcontinuesthroughtheepidemicAffectedbythissomeindustrieshavebeenpermanentlypushedontoabrandnewroadaheadandindustrytrendshavechangedsignificantly
With the implementation of the vaccine in 2021, the global economy will usher in an accelerated recovery, but the epidemic will affect humanssocietyThe impact is far from over. Some emerging demands may dissipate quickly after a brief flash, and the trajectory of related industries will continue to move forward along the original path. But more demand can continue through the epidemic. Affected by this, some industries have been permanently pushed onto a brand new forward path,industryThe trend has changed significantly.
As a global crisis, the new crown epidemic has caused tremendous damage to the economy and pushed human production and life away from normal tracks. The epidemic is like a magnifying glass, illuminating and magnifying the structural contradictions that existed before the epidemic, the distribution structure is out of balance,Industrial structureImbalance, economic structure imbalance, etc.longThe problem worsened. The epidemic is like an accelerator, accelerating the realization of the long-term trend of technological and institutional changes.The scene change empowered by science and technology moves from vision to reality, online, digital, and automatedmarketSpace is rapidly expanding.Like after the great plague in history, human beingsCognitionofValuesTo a certain extent, the psychological needs for a clean environment and a healthy life have been significantly improved after the epidemic; safety, stability, and autonomous controlIndustry chainThe importance of is becoming more and more prominent.
With the implementation of the vaccine in 2021, the global economy will usher in an accelerated recovery, but the impact of the epidemic on human society is far from over.Some emerging demands may dissipate quickly after a brief flash, and the trajectory of related industries will continue to move forward along the original path. But more demand continues through the epidemic. Affected by this, some industries have been permanently pushed onto a brand-new road ahead, and industry trends have changed significantly.
For bottom-upinvestmentIn general, it is important to identify the direction and rate of changes in industry trends.OneenterpriseOf course, the value of the company depends on its own profitability (thick snow), but also consider the development space of the industry (long slope). Companies with thick snow and long slopes can have both value and growth, and bring stable and sustainable income to investors.
In 2018, we studied the industry trends of China’s manufacturing sub-industries (see “China Manufacturing Life Cycle Panorama: Who Is Growing, Who Is Mature, Who Is Declining”).Calculating again using the previous theory, the industries that are in the growth stage during 2017-2019 mainly include:Construction machinery, other rare smallmetal, Electronic parts manufacturing, other special-purpose machinery, civil explosive supplies, medical equipment, power grid automation, printed circuit boards,Instrumentation, Biological products, photovoltaic equipment,electronic systemAssembly, cable parts,car parts, Display devices, small home appliances, chemical raw materials, special steel, passive components, chemical preparations, home appliance parts, other electronics, wind power equipment.
The mature industries mainly include:Industrial automation, motors, medium voltage equipment, terminal equipment, energy storage equipment, LED, packaging and printing, integrated circuits, communication transmission equipment,computerEquipment, ground armor, aviation equipment,Shipbuilding, Aerospace equipment, mechanical basic parts, passenger cars, new metal materials.
The industries that are in recession areMeasuring instruments.
FromThe Shanghai Composite IndexIt can be seen that the fundamentals of A-shares in the third quarter of 2020 have basically returned to normal, and revenue growth and ROE have basically returned to the levels before the epidemic.The time comes to the beginning of 2021. After experiencing a new crown epidemic, what changes have been made in the industrial trend of Chinese manufacturing?
Combining the two dimensions of investment and income, the industries where the industry trend has accelerated after the epidemic are mainly divided into the following categories:
(1) The electronic industry chain that accelerates domestic substitution and global market share,Including LEDs, passive components, electronic system assembly, display devices, electronic component manufacturing, printed circuit boards, integrated circuits, packaging and printing (such as optical films), etc.
(2) Benefit from online, digital andindustrySoftware and hardware for automation trendsservice，Including industrial control automation, metering instruments, power grid automation, computer equipment, mechanical basic parts (such as reducers), etc.
(3) Benefit from environmental protection policies and carbon neutralitythe goalofGreen industry，Including wind power equipment, motors related to new energy vehicles, photovoltaic equipment and upstream special machinery.
(4) Benefit from downstreamIndustrial upgradingAnd the mid-upstream and upstream industries that require increased specialization,Typical representatives are subject to specializationOutsourcingIndustrial gases driven by rising proportions and growing demand for specialty gases in emerging industries.
(5) National defense industry,Including aviation equipment, aerospace equipment,ShipbuildingAnd upstream new metal materials, mechanical basic parts (such as turbofan blades), etc.
(6) Medical biology,Including medical devices, biological products and chemical preparations.
(Source: Xuetao Macro Notes)
(Editor in charge: DF398)
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