原标题：流行病改变了什么？ 29个省，自治区和直辖市的2020年GDP“年度报告”摘要：在前十名中，谁是恒强人？
概要
[29provincesregionsandmunicipalitiesin2020GDP”annualreport”inventory:WhoisthetoptenHengqiangrisingrapidly?】ChinesebrokeragereportersfoundthatthetopprovincessuchasGuangdongandJiangsuwillstillbeintheforefrontoftotalGDPin2020whiletherankingsofprovincesregionsandcitiesintermsofGDPgrowthratefluctuategreatlyTheannualGDPgrowthrateishigherthanthenationalaverageandtheGDPgrowthrateofthecentralandwesternprovincesregionsandcitiesisrelativelyhigh(BrokerChina)
As of January 28, 29 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities across the country except Hebei and Xinjiang announced the 2020 regional GDP (GDP)versusYoYGrowth data (GDP growth rate).
BrokerageChinese reporters found that, in general, the top provinces such as Guangdong and Jiangsu will still be in the forefront of total GDP in 2020, while the rankings of provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in terms of GDP growth rate fluctuate greatly. The growth rate is higher than the national average, and the GDP growth rate of the central and western provinces, regions and cities is relatively high.
Experts believe that looking back at the whole year of 2020, although the impact of the epidemic on the economy is far-reaching, it has not shaken the development of the top provinces. Although the large change in GDP growth rate throughout the year is a temporary phenomenon, it can be seen that the central and western regions have shown higher economic growth momentum after being affected by multiple favorable factors. The progress of Jilin Province provides a reference for the northeast region. And Guizhou, which is quietly working hard, is showing its momentum.
Jiangsu jumped to 1 billion level, Anhui’s total volume is close to Shanghai
According to statistics from reporters, the total GDP rankings of 29 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in 2020 are basically the same as those in 2019. The top 10 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in GDP ranking are Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Henan, Sichuan, Fujian in descending order. , Hubei, Hainan, Shanghai. In terms of ranking changes, the changes in the provinces, regions and cities are relatively small. Among the top 10 provinces, only Hubei and Fujian, which ranked 7th and 8th last year, switched their rankings.
On the whole, under the impact of many unfavorable factors in 2020, the top GDP provinces still show their own strong heritage. Jiangsu Province has achieved “double victories” against the storms of 2020. The total economic output of the province has jumped to the level of 10 trillion yuan, and the per capita GDP has ranked first among all provinces and autonomous regions for 12 consecutive years.
Even if the annual GDP growth rate is -5%, Hubei Province, which made huge economic development sacrifices to fight the epidemic at the beginning of 2020, did not “fall behind” in economic development. Instead, it caught up in the second half of the year.import and exportContrary to the trend, it grew by 8.8%, and the scale of new social financing exceeded RMB 1 trillion for the first time. In the Hubei Provincial Government Work Report released a few days ago, “consolidating the sustained economic recovery” is the first item of the key work in 2021, and a 10% annual GDP growth target has been set, showing the development of Hubei Province confidence.
Although the list of the top 10 provinces has not changed, according to reporters’ calculations, Anhui Province, which ranks 11th in GDP, is only 1.998 billion yuan in value from Shanghai, which ranks 10th, and the difference is further narrowed compared with 19 years. . Considering that Shanghai’s GDP growth target this year is 6% and Anhui is 8%, Anhui may be expected to surpass Shanghai this year.
Sun Wenhua, Dean of the Shanghai Branch of the School of Planning of Nanjing Agricultural University, pointed out to the brokerage China reporter that if Anhui’s economic aggregate can improve, it will naturally affirm the economic development of Anhui, but the level of economic development cannot be judged by GDP alone, such as Shanghai’s economy. The density is higher than Anhui. Anhui is in a period of industrial development, and its current economic development momentum will be higher than that of Shanghai, which is dominated by service industries.At present, Anhui is actively undertaking the deconstruction of the core functions of Shanghai’s non-metropolitan cities and theindustryTransfer, how to integrate into the Yangtze River Delta as a wholeIndustrial DivisionCollaborate to promote the provincemanufacturingHigh-quality development is the direction Anhui should strive for.
The growth rate is shuffled, the Midwest dominates
According to statistics from reporters, provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities with a national GDP growth rate of not less than 2.3% in 2020Share19, the growth rates from high to low are Tibet, Guizhou, Yunnan, Anhui, Chongqing, Gansu, Ningxia, Sichuan, Hunan, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Guangxi, Shandong, Zhejiang, Shanxi, Hainan, Fujian, Jilin, Guangdong, Except for Hubei, 28 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities all showed positive GDP growth throughout the year. Compared with only 16 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities with positive GDP growth rates in the first half of 2020, my country’s economy has recovered significantly throughout the year.
From the perspective of geographical distribution, the top 10 regions with the highest GDP growth rate in 2020 are all located in the central and western regions of my country, especially the Tibet Autonomous Region, which ranks first. The annual GDP growth rate is 7.8%, far exceeding the second place by 3.34 percentage points. .
Wu Chaoming, chief economist of Caixin Securities, told a brokerage China reporter that on the one hand, the top 10 provinces have relatively low severity of the epidemic, and the peak of the epidemic mainly occurs in the first quarter, which has relatively limited economic impact throughout the year.The other side is consumption andreal estateThe strong growth rate of domestic demand such as investment has provided important support, especially the top 10 provinces have a high degree of overlap with their consumption expenditure growth rate.In addition, benefiting from the “Belt and Road” construction and the country’s policy support for the development of the central and western regions, the location conditions of the central and western regions have been changed from inland areas to frontiers. In addition, the demographic dividend and resource advantages have made up for overseas epidemics. Under the blockadeOutput gapTo promote localExitGrowth, which in turn drives industrial production, manufacturing investment and other indicators to reverse the trend.
The regions with the lowest GDP growth rate in 2020, except Hubei, are all located in the northeast, namely Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Inner Mongolia. Jilin Province, also in the northeast region, has exceeded the national GDP growth rate, rising by 11 places in the 2020 growth rate ranking.
“The economic performance of the Northeast has been relatively sluggish for many years. I think the population exodus is only the result. The root cause is that the Northeast has not kept up with the economic and economic conditions.Industrial structureAdjustment trend. “Tao Jin, deputy director of the Macro Center of Suning Financial Research Institute, told reporters that the Northeast relied on heavy industry-led industrial growth to become China’s economy many years ago.Growth pole, But the path dependence of industrial production is also obvious. At the same time, large-scale industrial production naturally inhibits private and small, medium and micro market players, and economic vitality is limited.the InternetWhen the demand for new economic fields and service industries rises, the northeast and other northern regions do not have a micro-foundation to undertake these trends and lose a lot of development opportunities.
Regarding the development of Jilin Province, one of the “three northeastern provinces”, in 2020, Tao Jin believes that after experiencing the squeezing of GDP in previous years, economic growth will start again. Jilin Province has a relatively good industrial base, especially heavy industry with a high level of science and technology. The development trend of heavy industry is good. The impact of the epidemic in 2020 will be relatively small. With the resumption of work and production relatively fast, the economic growth rate outperforms the rest of the Northeast area.
In addition, many provinces have changed their GDP growth rankings this year. For example, Fujian and Henan, which ranked the top 10 in GDP growth in 2019, dropped sharply in 2020, dropping to 17th and No. 24 bits. Shandong Province has risen 12 places in the growth rate ranking.
Guizhou Province is quietly rising
As a province with the median GDP ranking, Guizhou Province is often not the focus of news in economic rankings. However, the reporter combed through two years of economic data and found that Guizhou Province has been ranked in the top 2 in the national GDP growth rate for three consecutive years, and ranked in the forefront of the country for ten consecutive years. It is the only province to achieve a two-digit increase in GDP in 2020. .
Xiao Yunhui, director of the Guizhou Provincial Statistics Bureau and spokesperson, said at a press conference on the main statistics of Guizhou Province in 2020 on the 19th that 2020 is GuizhouDevelopment poleIn an extraordinary year, the province’s economic operation showed a good momentum of strong recovery, stable improvement, and quarterly recovery.
Data show that in 2020, Guizhou ProvinceFixed asset investmentAn increase of 3.2% over the previous year, the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points higher than that of the country.Year-round high technologyIndustry investmentRapid growth, the province’s high-tech industry investment increased by 10.2% over the previous year. Among them, investment in high-tech service industry increased by 26.5%,Professional settingManufacturing investment increased by 13.4%. Information transmission, software andinformation TechnologyInvestment in the service industry increased by 31.4%.
Tao Jin said that Guizhou Province has maintained rapid economic growth in recent years, significantly faster than the entire country. Among them, it is largely due to the growth of investment activities. The investment rate of Guizhou Province has exceeded 60% in recent years, which is 20% higher than the national level. Driven by investment, the scale of Guizhou’s industrial sector has continued to expand.In addition, in recent years, Guizhou has begun to transform and develop electricity andBig DataIndustry, it can be said that Guizhou has truly exerted its geographical location advantages, made choices and trade-offs, and successfully developed characteristic industries.In addition, the state has strengthened its efforts to alleviate poverty in Guizhou in recent years, which has not only increased overall consumer demand, but also increased overalllaborStrength and quality can be said to underpin Guizhou’s economic growth.
The growth rate is a temporary phenomenon, and the development momentum will return to normal this year
“The major changes in the ranking of GDP growth this year are mainly related to the impact of the epidemic, which is a temporary phenomenon.” Wu Chaoming told reporters that this year’s GDP growth rate does not fully reflect the economic vitality of various regions, and is due to unexpected external shocks. Variety. As the epidemic stabilizes and its impact on the economy subsides, it is expected that this large change in the next few years will tend to shrink and gradually return to the normal range of narrow fluctuations in previous years.
In Tao Jin’s view, various provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities may face some risks in the future economic development. The most important ones are the agglomeration process andUrbanizationThe slowdown of the process. Urbanization is the natural result and universal law of economic development, but the current level of urbanization in China is still not high enough. Behind this is the household registration system, the obstacles to population movement and even the distribution of benefits. If the agglomeration process in urban areas in the future slows down due to the obstruction of urban and rural reforms, it may impede the improvement of economic efficiency.
Wu Chaoming believes that this year’s GDP growth rate in various regions will be quite different from 2020.first of allBase effectIn the provinces and cities with a low growth rate in 2020, the base number is low, which is conducive to the year-on-year growth rate this year, and there is a certain “base illusion”. Secondly, as the impact of the epidemic gradually fades, the economic growth momentum of various provinces will return to normal with a high probability, and internal activities will dominate this year’s economic growth.
(Source: Brokerage China)
(Editor in charge: DF398)
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