巨峰投资顾问：误警后如何应对A股震荡信号？ _东方财富网

概要

[JufengInvestmentConsultant:HowtodealwiththeA-shareshocksignalafterafalsealarm?Viewpoint:SincethefourthquarteroflastyearmarketriskappetitehasreboundedWiththeacceleratedrecoveryofeconomicfundamentalsandreasonableampleliquiditythelogicofthemarket’spositivetrendhasnotchangedAftertheupwardstructuralshockwiththerecoveryofmarketsentimentandtheimprovementoftheearningeffectthemarketisinfullswinginthespringandthemarketearningeffecthasbegun

Viewpoint: Since the fourth quarter of last year,marketriskPreference has rebounded. With the accelerated recovery of economic fundamentals and reasonable ample liquidity, the logic of the market’s positive trend has not changed. After the upward structural shock, with the recovery of market sentiment and the improvement of the earning effect, the market is in full swing in the spring, and the market earning effect has begun.After the continuous upward trend, especially after the three major indexes rose this year, we should pay attention to the trend market.short termSuspension, consider adjusting the position appropriatelyShare swapLower the index and heavy individual stocks.

Yesterday, the three major indexes all fell. This is also one of the few indexes since the beginning of the year in which there has been a resonant decline. The drop yesterday was mainly due to market concerns about tightening liquidity. Of course, let’s not say whether the release of market signals is aimed at the stock market, but the stock market is often the most sensitive, so this is the core factor in the market decline.

Today, the market has not continued this decline, indicating that this concern is only an emotional impact, and there were positive voices from the market late yesterday. Obviously, there is a high probability that this is a false alarm. In terms of liquidity, in fact, the Governor of the Central Bank also stated at the Davos Forum yesterday, “currencyPolicies will continue to be balanced in supporting economic recovery and avoiding risks. We ensure that the policies adopted are consistent, stable and consistent, and will not give up supporting policies prematurely. “includeSecuritiesThe Times also commented that the impact of the central bank’s short-term liquidity operations need not be overly magnified.

According to the laws of the past bull market, even if the macro liquidity has ushered in a tightening, the bull market pattern will still appear in the initial stage of the tightening, but now it is onlyMarginalThe tightening trend has not yet reached the actual tightening. Of course, judging from the trend of accelerating economic recovery, the turning point of macro liquidity is approaching, and everyone needs to make advance preparations for this.

However, yesterday’s worries and decline in the market have also reminded us that the rapid upward movement since the beginning of the year may basically come to an end.Because the market has undergone continuousPull upAfter that, the high-level group stocks ushered in the divergence, but also gradually collapsed, and the two citiesDealAlthough it still maintains a high level, compared with the previous period, it still shrinks slightly. Next, the index will not have systemic risks, but if you want a continuous upward movement, it may increase the difficulty, and more, the probability of repeated highs will increase.

Therefore, the next market configuration may need to be slightly adjusted to cope with market changes, especially paying attention to low-end and low-value products.After all, with the economic recovery and accelerated recovery, the trend of valuation recovery is obvious and clear, but many highly valued varieties have experiencedfundsAfter the pull, we can only rely onPerformanceSupport, and if performance and valuation do not match well, then the room for continued upward movement is questionable. But on the contrary, many low-valuation and stagflation products still have room and motivation for restoration. Obviously, funds will also seek new value targets.bankOther varieties still need to pay more attention.

At present, under the accelerated recovery of economic fundamentals and relatively loose liquidity, the market in the spring remains the same. Under the stimulus of multiple parties, the market’s positive trend and logic remain unchanged. Under short-term adjustment of the index, it is still possible to pull up again, but the overall need Pay attention to the possible large volatility in February in advance.

(Source: Jufeng Finance)

(Editor in charge: DF515)