原标题：股市暴跌，基督徒是否感到恐慌？ 基金蓬勃发展，一半的新基金会诞生于90年代！ 央行开始在泡沫上工作？ 马军警告！易纲讲话激烈
概要
[ThestockmarketcrashedaretheChristianspanicking?Thefundexploded!Thecentralbankbegantoworkonthebubble?MaJunwarns!】A-sharesandHongKongstockshaveseenararerecentplungeandfundsareonhotsearchagain!OntheotherhandthecentralbankbegantoworkonbubblesInthefirsttwodaysofthisweekthecentralbank’scumulativenetwithdrawaloffundsexceeded300billionyuanMaJunamemberoftheMonetaryPolicyCommitteeoftheCentralBankwarned:”Theeconomicgrowthratehasfallenbutthereissuchabullmarketandbubblesinsomeareashavealreadyappeared”(21stCenturyBusinessHerald)
Yesterday (26th) A shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a rare recent plunge.fundHot search again!
On the other hand, the central bank began to work on bubbles. In the first two days of this week, the central bank’s cumulative net withdrawal of funds exceeded 300 billion yuan.
Central bankcurrencyMa Jun, member of the Policy Committee, warned:“The decline in economic growth has seen such a bull market, and bubbles in some areas have already appeared.”
Central Bank Governor Yi Gang made a heavy voice: China’s monetary policy will continue to support the economy, and China will not withdraw from supporting policies prematurely.
On January 26, investors lamented “turn off the lights and eat noodles.”
“Yesterday’s sharp drop should be a total withdrawal of the market’s safe-haven funds before the Spring Festival. Coupled with the active speculation in the previous market, the market has now begun to cash in profits.” On January 26, a private equity source said.
Some analysts believe that the sharp drop on the day was a normal callback after the previous market surge.
It used to be a “stock disaster-like rise”, and the 28th-eighth split the market, the index rose, but individual stocks fell more and less; now it is a “stock disaster-like fall”, the index is falling, and the split market continues to fall.
Yesterday’s close, the three major indexes went down unilaterally throughout the day.Growth Enterprise Market IndexIt fell nearly 3%, and more than 60 stocks fell over 9%.
In individual stocks,Arowana、Mindray MedicalAs Baotuan stocks collectively fell sharply, short-term sentiment in the market was sluggish.
All kinds of Maotai fell sharply, and the Mao index fell as much as 2.6%!
Most sectors in the two cities fell, military industry,Insurance, Wine,BrokerageThe decline in the other sectors was among the top.
On the disk, the military sector suffered a heavy setback.Optoelectronics、Space rainbow、Aerospace Electric、AVIC Hi-TechWait for more than 10 shares to fall limit;Insurance, Wine making, brokerage and other sectors fell sharply.
As of the close,Shanghai IndexIt fell 1.51% to 3,569.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.28%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.89%. The total turnover of the two cities was 1,014 billion yuan, and the net outflow of northbound capital was 3.541 billion yuan.
Hong Kong stocks also collapsed across the board, with the Hang Seng Index falling 2.4%. The Hang Seng Technology Index fell 2%, of which, Tencent fell more than 5%, and the market value of 7 trillion yuan fell; Meituan fell more than 4%.
According to statistics from the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, as of January 26, 3017 A-shares have fallen since 2021, accounting for 72.45% of the 4164 stocks in the two cities, while the number of stocks rising is less than 30%.
Among them, 1364 stocks fell more than 10%, and 203 stocks fell more than 20%.And the stocks with the highest declineBrand new and goodThis year it has fallen by 55.52%.
The blue chip stocks in the ups and downs of A-shares this year are “successful and defeated”.
For example, on January 25, the largest market value of A sharesKweichow MoutaiThe stock price soared 4.57%, a record high. January 26,Kweichow MoutaiFell 1.52%.
When the A-share “Bao Tuan stock” rose too high, the spillover effect caused the southward capital to spend on January 25Tencent HoldingsPulled up 10%, and on January 26,Tencent HoldingsThe callback fell by 6%.
“Many investors are worried that the pattern of the 28th-eighth split will cause a stock catastrophe-like bull market.” Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, said, “The current market trend is not clear about the bull market and the bear market, but depends on which direction is allocated. For those who configure the “White Dragon Horse”, the past few years, including now, have been a big bull market, and the configurationPerformancePoor stocks, or stocks with mediocre qualifications, are a bear market. “
“With the increase in the proportion of institutional investors, the current pattern of differentiation between the 28th and the 8th may even appear like the United States. Good companies are rare and will be sought after by funds.” Yang Delong suggested to seize the opportunity of the white dragon horse stock. , By making value investments, by buying high-quality stocks or funds to share the gold in the A-share market for 10 years. From a long-term perspective, the performance of White Horse stocks is still worth looking forward to.And for some underperforming stocks andthemeStocks must be kept away, and swap positions will be carried out when the White Horse stocks are adjusted.
For the market outlook,Industrial SecuritiesHold an optimistic view. At the end of the year and the New Year’s Eve, before the NPC and CPPCC is a time window for long. From the perspective of industry configuration, growth diffusion + main line of recovery (mid-upstream cyclical products) are the two main lines currently configured. On the one hand, increased risk appetite + loose liquidity + policy catalysis + performance improvement, the four-fold positive stacking, growth stocks are expected to spread in other directions. On the other hand, the domestic economic recovery + the Democratic Party has achieved a “blue sweep”, overseas stimulus expectations have increased, the main line of economic recovery, and the general trend of improvement in mid- and upper-stream cyclical products.
A private equity source in Shenzhen said, “A-share market may be under pressure for adjustment in the short term, and it should be avoided for the time being, but I expect that the market after the holiday should be relatively good.PositionShould not drop too low. “
A market participant said that the main line of performance should be grasped at present. For example, the pork and coal sectors that rose against the trend that day were all due to the company’s outstanding annual report performance. It doesn’t matter whether the two-eighth split or the hotspots rotate. Companies with performance will get out of the rising market.
The stock market plummeted. Are the Christians who have just entered the market panicked?
Recently, according to CCTV Finance data,The post-90s accounted for more than half of the newly added “basic people”.For Xinjimin, the fund is not onlyFinancial managementproduct, Also seems to be a social tool.Young people once talked about celebrity gossip after dinner, but now the topic has become funds. Since most of the industry’s understanding of the industry comes from news reports, the judgments made by Xinjimin will also be mixed with the opinions of friends and Internet influencers. Therefore, these funds invested by Xinjimin generally revolve around liquor, consumption and new Energy is the hottest industry.
After the stock market plummeted today, the fund was firmly establishedWeiboTop ten searches.
According to China Fund News, various fund stories have also appeared.
Recently, the baijiu sector has also ignited E Fund’s star fund manager Zhang Kun. The E Fund’s blue chip selection under his management has soared by 5 points in a single day due to heavy warehouse baijiu.As a result, “the world’s three well-known wineries: Romani Conti, Lafite, and Yi Fonda” became popular, “Kun Kun is brave to fly, ikun is always with you, Kun Kun is not old, blue chips are old” and other ridiculous pictures are alsoWeiboOn the screen, there was even a Zhang Kun global support club who “love Kun and protect Kun”.
Some netizens also wrote limericks.
There are even media reports that in 2020,The Shanghai Composite IndexConstantly going higher, the desire to realize “freedom of wealth” allows young people to run into the field. Some people secretly copy the “homework” of wealth management bloggers, and some people spend huge sums of money on financial management classes. The low threshold of 1 yuan purchase makes funds the best way for young people to get started in financial management.
In addition, the phenomenon of retail investors guiding fund managers’ operations has also emerged.
andBaiduThe index shows that the keyword “public funds” has exceeded the stock market crash in 2015.
At the moment when the fund market is crazy, some people in the industry have issued “goodwill reminders.”
Xingquan Trend Dong Chengfei said in the Four Seasons: “The market will still perform strongly in the fourth quarter of 2020. The willingness to enter the market is still strong, and the products of various star fund managers have quickly sold out. The market has gradually evolved from fundamentals to ‘ The slogan’investment’, the concrete manifestation is that core assets continue to increase valuations, discounting the prospects of 10 or even 20 years to the present. But the future is uncertain, and the market lacks a sense of awe for uncertainty.”
alert! GC001 just doubled, and liquidity turned?
Also, be vigilant!Liquidity seems to show signs of turning. On January 26, for maintenancebankThe liquidity of the system is reasonable and abundant, and the central bankRepurchaseoperating,interest rateIt was 2.2%, the same as before. The operation volume was 2 billion yuan, and 78 billion capital was returned to circulation due to the expiration of 80 billion reverse repurchase.It is worth mentioning that, unlike the past, there are 7 days of reverse repurchase on working days this month, and the operation volume is mainly 2 billion and 5 billion.
From the perspective of recent funding, short-term funding prices have risen to varying degrees, while long-term funding prices have declined. January overnightShibor, DR001 weightedinterest rateThe highest rates were 2.73% and 2.7366%, both higher than the policy rate of 2.2% for 7-day reverse repurchase. The January 10-year Treasury bond yields were all below 3.2%, which was lower than the levels in November and December 2020.
RecentShanghai BankInter-bank Offered Rates (Shibor), especially short-term interest rates, rose rapidly. The Shibor continued to rise overnight. It has now reached 2.726%, up 27.6BP from the previous day, and higher than the 2.2% reverse repurchase operation rate maintained by the central bank this year. . At the same time, the one-week variety rose by 43.2 BP to 2.728%, and the two-week product rose by 17.2 BP to 2.853%.
After continuous volume reverse repurchase and large net withdrawal,bankThe repurchase rates on the Intermediate Exchange have risen sharply, and the overnight repurchase rates on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange both exceeded 5%.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange GC001 once soared 102% to 6.1. In addition, the short-term varieties GC002, GC003, GC004 and GC007 also rose by more than 20% yesterday.
The Shenzhen Stock Exchange R-001 also doubled yesterday, with a maximum of 5.903%. The DR001 weighted interest rate rose 28.88 basis points to 2.74966%, a record high in more than 16 months.
The central bank’s open market has a huge net return of 300 billion
The central bank’s open market conducted 2 billion yuan yesterdayRMBThe 7-day reverse repurchase operation, due to the expiration of 80 billion yuan of reverse repurchase yesterday, a net return of 78 billion yuan, the central bank’s cumulative net return of funds exceeded 300 billion yuan in the first two days of this week.
According to reports,Everbright BankFinancial MarketsAnalystZhou Maohua said that from the signal released, the central bank is unwilling to see excessive easing of funds in the short term, lest the easing triggers arbitrage by the market and leads to local asset price bubbles.
CITIC SecuritiesObviously pointed out that under the monetary policy orientation of focusing on stability and the liquidity management objective of “no shortage and no overflow”, the central bank will carry out liquidity investment based on the liquidity gap. We need to pay attention to the poor expectations caused by the narrowing of the liquidity gap after considering the impact of the Spring Festival return home policy. Around the Spring Festival of 2021, it is expected to continue the trend of funding before and after the Spring Festival.
Shen Wan HongyuanSaid that the recent central bank release deadlines are too short, which is likely to cause market concerns about funding. This year’s Spring Festival liquidity gap is about 1 trillion yuan, which is similar to the previous 1.1-1.2 trillion central bank investment before the Spring Festival. There are still three weeks before the Spring Festival, and we need to continue to observe the follow-up operations of the central bank.
At the same time, the Chinese peoplebankMa Jun, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee and director of the Finance and Development Research Center of Tsinghua University, said at the seminar “Interpretation of the Central Economic Work Conference and Analysis of the Current Economic Situation” held recently:
Bubbles in some areas have already emerged. Last year, several major stock market indexes in our country have risen sharply, close to 30%. Such a bull market is unlikely to have nothing to do with currencies when the economic growth rate has fallen sharply.In addition, recently Shanghai, Shenzhen and other placesHouse priceIt has risen a lot, all of which are related to changes in liquidity and leverage.
This makes the market think about future changes in liquidity.CITIC SecuritiesMingming teamResearch reportSaid that the central bank’s liquidity arrangements before the Spring Festival in previous years: regardless of whether the monetary policy tone is tight or tight, the central bank’s net liquidity placement trend before the Spring Festival is obvious; MLF and 14-day reverse repurchase operations will not be absent; the currency loosening cycle from 2018 to 2020 , RRR cuts have both the functions of liquidity arrangements for the Spring Festival and monetary easing. Under the monetary policy orientation of focusing on stability and the liquidity management objective of “no shortage and no overflow”, the central bank conducts liquidity investment based on the liquidity gap.
During the Spring Festival, the liquidity gap is more obvious, residents’ demand for cash withdrawal and fiscal deposits increase.ChangheThe natural maturity of open market operation funds is the main factor causing the liquidity gap. Comprehensively consider several major factors such as M0, fiscal deposits, natural maturity of funds, foreign exchange funds, payment of statutory reserves, and reserve funds to calculate the liquidity gap. If linearly extrapolated from previous history, the liquidity gap around the Spring Festival in 2021 will be relatively large; considering the impact of the Spring Festival return home policy, the liquidity gap is expected to decrease. It is expected that the liquidity gap in January will be large and the liquidity environment will be relatively eased in February.
Central Bank Governor Yi Gang: Monetary policy will continue to support the economy and will not withdraw support prematurely
According to the Securities Times, Founder’s strategic analysis said that the sound of the monetary policy shift has resumed, and the significant increase in capital interest rates triggers concerns about liquidity tension before the Spring Festival. There are two main reasons for the market decline:
First, according to reports, at the seminar on “Interpretation of the Central Economic Work Conference and Analysis of the Current Economic Situation” held recently,People’s Bank of ChinaMa Jun, member of the Monetary Policy Committee and director of the Center for Finance and Development Research of Tsinghua University, said“It is necessary for monetary policy to shift appropriately in response to bubbles in certain areas.” Expectations for further tightening of monetary policy have increased.
Second, the central bank maintained the reverse repurchase operation of land volume for 3 consecutive days and continued the trend of net withdrawal. Taking into account the influence of factors such as cash withdrawals during the Spring Festival, the funding surface was relatively tight and the bond market adjusted significantly.The inter-bank and exchange repurchase rates rose significantly, among which DR001 hit a 16-month high, triggering concerns about tight liquidity before the holiday.
In addition, on the evening of the 26th, the central bank governor Yi Gang had the latest statement! He said,China’s monetary policy will continue to support the economy, and China will not withdraw from supporting policies prematurely.
On January 26, 2021, the Governor of the People’s Bank of China, Yi Gang, attended the video conference of the World Economic Forum Davos Agenda Meeting and participated in the “Strengthening the Financial and Monetary System” Leaders’ Forum. This session discussed the financial risks that the new crown pneumonia epidemic response measures may bring and how to improve the anti-risk ability of financial institutions.
Among them, Yi Gang focused on the following key points.
1. Will not give up the previously released support policy prematurely
Yi Gang stated in the “Davos Agenda” that China’s monetary policy will continue to support the economy, and China will not withdraw from supporting policies prematurely.
Yi Gang said that China is committed to promoting the transformation of the economic growth model to a consumption-driven model.At present, given that the public health crisis caused by the new crown pneumonia epidemic is still continuing globally, China will ensure that the policies adopted by the central bank are consistent, stable and consistent, and will not give up supporting policies prematurely.GDPThe growth rate will return to within the normal range, in line with expectations.
2. It is very important to avoid the abuse of the monopoly position of financial technology
Yi Gang also said that the central bank has always supported the development of financial technology and encouraged financial innovation, but it is also very important to avoid abuse of the monopoly position.
3. China’s GDP growth rate this year will return to normal
Yi Gang estimates that China’s GDP growth rate this year will return to the potential level under normal trends.
Monetary policy may be fine-tuned but it will not take a sharp turn
According to a report by Xinhua News Agency on the 26th, Huang Yiping, deputy dean of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, said that with the recovery of the economy, it should be a high probability event that monetary policy is fine-tuned.
Huang Yiping said that compared with the monetary policies of most central banks, my country’s monetary policy will be relatively stable in 2020. China has not adopted zero or even negative interest rates, nor “flooded”. It is one of the few major economies that implement normal monetary policies. At the same time, through measures such as lowering the RRR, introducing re-loan and rediscount policies, and establishing inclusive small and micro enterprise loan deferred principal and interest payments and inclusive small and micro enterprise credit loans, two monetary policy tools that directly reach the real economy, etc. The support of the real economy.
“As the economy recovers, it should be a high probability event that monetary policy has been fine-tuned.” Huang Yiping said that with the support of macroeconomic policies, my country’s economy rebounded in a relatively short period of time last year. If the economy can still maintain stable growth this year, the series of stimulus policies and growth stabilization measures adopted in the past may have to be slowly withdrawn.
“The current policy will not make a sharp turn.” Huang Yiping believes that the “continuity, stability, and sustainability” mentioned in the Central Economic Work Conference are very important policy directions.
The market is worried. Does this mean that special and phased policies during the epidemic will “accelerate withdrawal”? In fact, judging from the recent statements of the central bank, the word “stability” is the priority, not making a sharp turn, and maintaining the balance of stabilizing the economy and preventing risks remains the focus of the next stage of monetary policy.
(Source: 21st Century Business Herald)
(Editor in charge: DF512)
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