陷阱还是派？ 买入和买入香港股票的资金越来越多！ 您如何看待用于“弹药”的2500亿美元基金？ _东方财富网

原标题：陷阱还是派？ 有了买入，买入的资金，港股不断上涨！ 2500亿“弹药”已被使用，您如何看待该基金？

概要

[Atraporapie?FundstobuyandbuyHongKongstocksupandup!Whatdoyouthinkofthe250billionfundusedin”ammunition”?】HongKongstocksbrokeoutagainonJanuary25theHangSengIndexrosemorethan2%returningtothe30000-pointmark;theHangSengTechnologyIndexsoared45%breakingthe10000-pointmarkforthefirsttimeTencentskyrocketed11%NetEaserose8%SMICrose10%JDcomandMeituanbrokeoutcollectively

Hong Kong stocks broke out again on January 25. The Hang Seng Index rose more than 2% and returned to the 30,000-point mark; the Hang Seng Technology Index soared 4.5%, breaking the 10,000-point mark for the first time. Tencent skyrocketed 11%,NetEaseUp 8%,SMICUp 10%,Jingdong, Meituan broke out collectively.

Since the beginning of this year, Mainland funds have continued to passSouthbound tradingInflows into Hong Kong stocks, as of January 22,Net inflowThe scale has exceeded 230 billion Hong Kong dollars, and the amount of funds has exceeded the annual net purchases of Hong Kong Stock Connect in 2015 and 2018. On the 25th, the southward capital poured into HK$19.256 billion again. It exceeded HK$10 billion on the 15th of 16 trading days this year, with a cumulative influx of HK$250.467 billion.

The performance of Hong Kong stocks leads the world. The Hang Seng Index has risen by more than 8% year-to-date, a record high since May 2019. The Hang Seng Technology Index has gained 15% accumulatively, not only outperforming A-shares, but also higher than the gains in US, Japanese and European stock markets over the same period.

newFund issuanceHot, abundant market liquidity, and new highs in southward funds. How long can investment opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market last?

　　Hong Kong stocks show positive circular effect

Statistics show that as of January 22 this year,Northward capitalThe historical net purchases of 1.25 trillion yuan and the historical net purchases of the southward funds are 1.96 trillion yuan. This also means that the historical net purchases of the southward funds are 710 billion yuan.

HSBC Jinxin Shanghai, Hong Kong and ShenzhenfundManager Cheng Yu said that the reason for the fact that most investors have seen the current advantages and attractiveness of the Hong Kong stock market, leading to the formation of strong consensus expectations in the market. As a result, funds and the market are in resonance, and to a certain extent a positive cycle of “the stronger the performance of Hong Kong stocks-the more capital going south-the stronger the performance of Hong Kong stocks”.

　　The reason why the market is unanimously optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market, Cheng Yu concluded that there are five reasons behind it:

1) As the domestic economy bottoms out and stabilizes, we may see the listing of Hong Kong stocks in the 4th quarter report of 2020the companyThere is an inflection point in profit, which is the biggest fundamental support;

2) ExpectedMidlandReserve will remain in 2021currencyLoose, the possibility of raising interest rates is almost zero, and other developed markets such as Europe and Japan will also maintainLoose monetary policy；

3) Recently, Sino-US relations have shown positive signs of easing, and the landing of external risk events is expected to increase significantly.International InvestmentHong Kong stock investors’ confidence, including

4) In the current major global markets, Hong Kong stocks are one of the lowest valued assets and have obvious valuation advantages;

5) Domestic funds are accelerating southward, at the same timeInternational capitalThere has also been a substantial return to emerging markets including the Hong Kong stock market.

Li Huiyong, deputy general manager of Huabao Fund, toldBrokerageChinese reporters, the current Hang Seng AH premium index is still at a high level, and as China’s economy takes the lead in recovering after the epidemic, the profitability of Hong Kong stocks, especially Chinese stocks, should grow gratifying this year. Compared with other developed countries, Hong Kong stocks are also at a low value. The industries that may be further restored are: upstream resource products such as petroleum and petrochemical,Non-ferrous metals, Beer, catering,BrandApparel, gaming, medicine, andValuation adjustmentMore adequate property stocks, etc.

　　Hong Kong stock valuation restoration is in the first stage

　　Debon FundGuo Chengdong, general manager of the Overseas and Portfolio Investment Department, believes that there are two majorprice scissorsIt may have reached the historical limit, and the probability of future restoration is relatively high.The first one is AH sharesSpreadIt reached above 150 last year, which is one of the historical highs. This is a mid-term opportunity for valuation restoration.The second is ChengChangheThe difference in traditional value is also close to the historical limit.

Standing at the current time node, Guo Chengdong believes that structural highlights are the main source of excess income, which is mainly reflected in emergingindustryAnd consumption upgrade two main lines.However, the valuation of these stocks has increased too fast recently, and profits have becomeChangheThe matching degree of the space is no longer suitable, or will choose to make a profit.

Guo Chengdong said that it will moderately reduce the holdings of growth stocks and increase the proportion of high cost-effective, especially low-valued leaders. Some of the middle-head companies have also experienced historic investment opportunities due to investment restrictions in the United States. Their industries may not Not in the current trend, but they have gone through several rounds of economic cycles, and the current dividend yield has reached historical highs.He judged that this part of the investment on the left may drag down the short-termPerformance, But the medium-term winning rate is higher. We will carefully screen the underestimated companies, and choose the leading companies with solid fundamentals, high performance growth stability and larger space.

The current consensus on the bullishness of the Hong Kong stock market is gradually reached, and the enthusiasm for funds is gradually ignited. Debon Fund believes that the valuation restoration of the Hong Kong stock market is still in the first stage. Although there are fluctuations in the medium term, the performance of the Hong Kong stocks is expected to remain throughout the year.

　　Bosera Fund: To see more in the medium term, but not to compete overnight in the short term

Boshi Fund Macro StrategyteamResearch believes that the Hong Kong stock bull market has the macro foundation: economic growth lays the foundation for profitability, liquidity consolidates the valuation foundation, political risk reduction increases systemic dividends, and listing rules shape the blue ocean of new economic investment.

In addition, Hong Kong stocks are supported by fundamentals: in terms of profitability, it is in the middle of the fourth round of earnings upward cycle valuation; in terms of valuation, there is still room for Hong Kong stock blue chips to repair at a discount to A-shares, and the new economy also has moderate valuation varieties; funding, the new economy The increase in the proportion and the combination of the north and the south, enhance the strategic value of Hong Kong stocks; global allocation, the depreciation of the US dollar, global capital investment in China, the first choice for Hong Kong.

Bosera Fund believes that the rebound in economic growth is expected to continue to drive the continuous recovery of the profits of the bull and Hong Kong stocks in 2021, and there is still room for the recovery of the Hang Seng AH premium index. Maintain the judgment that Hong Kong stocks are better than A-shares in 2021 and have extremely strong allocation value in the one-year dimension. Rhythmically, Hong Kong stocks have a better profit opportunity in the first half of 2021. The slowdown in profit growth in the second half of the year may become a turning point in the Hong Kong stock market.

In the current strategy, Bosera Fund believes that short-term Hong Kong stock trading sentiment has reached a high level and will not compete overnight.Specifically, the Hang Seng Index and Hang SengState-owned Enterprises IndexTrading sentiment has reached a high level, and short-term Hong Kong stocks are at risk of falling back; short-selling turnover accounted for a record low since March 2018, which also shows that short-term sentiment in Hong Kong stocks is too optimistic.

As of January 20, 2021, the ratio of short-selling turnover to the total turnover of Hong Kong stocks is close to the lowest level since March 2018, indicating that the short-term sentiment of Hong Kong stocks is too optimistic. Of course, this indicator also has a phenomenon of flopping in history, which is only for auxiliary reference. For example, in January 2016, the proportion of short-selling turnover suddenly dropped to a very low position. However, Hong Kong stocks ushered in a two-year bull market in 2016-2017. The current optimistic sentiment in Hong Kong stock trading cannot be denied.

(Source: Brokerage China)

(Editor in charge: DF398)