人民币升值提高了企业结汇的意愿。 _东方财富网

原标题：人民币升值增强了企业结汇的意愿。

概要

[Theappreciationoftherenminbiincreasesthewillingnessofenterprisestosettleforeignexchange】OnJanuary22thelatestdatareleasedbytheStateAdministrationofForeignExchangeshowedthatin2020banksrealizedasurplusofUS$1587billioninforeignexchangesettlementandsalesreversingthefive-yeardeficitsince2015especiallyinDecemberlastyearThesurplusreached666billionUSdollars(ChinaBusinessNews)

　　along withRMBexchange ratemarketThe degree of change,Exchange rate fluctuationsThe increase in the range and the divergence of market expectations will benefit our countryForeign exchangeThe revenue and expenditure continue to be balanced,foreign exchange reservesThe scale remains stable

Thanks to the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar in 2020,enterpriseAnd personal willingness to settle foreign exchange last yearbankKnotForeign exchangeThe surplus reappeared in the past five years.

On January 22, the latest data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed that in 2020,bankThe settlement and sale of foreign exchange achieved a surplus of US$158.7 billion, reversing the five consecutive years of deficit since 2015. In particular, the surplus of foreign exchange settlement and sales in December last year reached US$66.6 billion.

　　acceptExperts interviewed by a reporter from China Business News said that despite the same surplus, the current situation is very different from five years ago.along withRMB exchange rateThe increase in the degree of marketization, the increase in exchange rate fluctuations and the divergence of market expectations, will help my country’s foreign exchange revenue and expenditure continue to maintain a balance, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves will remain stable.

　　For the first time in five years, there was a centralized settlement of foreign exchange in December

Statistics from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange show that from January to December 2020,bankThe accumulated foreign exchange settlement was 14,100.8 billion yuan, the accumulated foreign exchange sales were 13,022.5 billion yuan, the accumulated foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus was 1.078.3 billion yuan, denominated in US dollars, and the accumulated foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus was 158.7 billion US dollars. This result is almost expected. Throughout the whole year of 2020, banks’ foreign exchange settlement and sales only showed small deficits of 2.5 billion and 3.8 billion US dollars in July and August, respectively, and the rest of the time were surpluses.

Especially in the second half of the year, the renminbi against the U.S. dollar rose like a rainbow. In December last year, there was a centralized settlement of foreign exchange by enterprises and individuals. In the same month, banks settled 242.7 billion US dollars on behalf of clients, a sharp increase of 76.6 billion US dollars from the previous month. , The foreign exchange settlement and sale on behalf of customers achieved a surplus of US$65.2 billion, and the overall foreign exchange settlement and sales achieved a surplus of US$66.6 billion.

　　International financeProblem expert Zhao Qingming also told a reporter from China Business News that the recurring surplus in foreign exchange settlement and sales is related to the continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate.

In 2020, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has appreciated by about 6.5%. The market’s sentiment to be bullish on the RMB is rising. Many institutions predict that the RMB will remain strong in 2021.

　　Bank of ChinaResearcher Wang Youxin of the Research Institute told China Business News that from the perspective of willingness to settle and sell foreign exchange, the RMB exchange rate has appreciated steadily, and companies actively adjusted the currency structure of assets and liabilities. The willingness to settle foreign exchange increased, and the willingness to purchase foreign exchange decreased. The epidemic and social distancing policies have reduced overseas study and tourism, business activities, and reduced demand for foreign exchange;supplyFrom a perspective, my country’s economy andindustryProduction is the first to recover in the world, trade surplus and foreign exchange income remain high, financial market opening is progressing steadily, and cross-border capital inflows continue to increase.improveThe foreign exchange supply and demand situation.

It is worth noting that in 2020, the accumulative foreign-related revenue of bank agentspaymentThe surplus was 116.9 billion US dollars. This is also since 2015, the bank has once again achieved a double surplus in foreign-related receipts and payments and foreign exchange settlement and sales on behalf of customers.

“Enterprises tend to settle foreign exchange income in time to lock in income in advance. In 2020, the average monthly settlement exchange rate for bank agents is basically the same as the sales exchange rate. In 2019, the monthly sales exchange rate for bank agents is 2.8 percentage points higher than the settlement exchange rate.” Wang Youxin A reporter from China Business News said that this shows that my country’s economicDomestic investmentIncrease confidence in the stable development of my country’s economy, cross-border risksExposureDecline, the stability of exchange rate and capital flow has improved.

　　Differentiation of exchange rate expectations is conducive to the balance of foreign exchange payments

For the first time in five years, foreign exchange settlement and sales figures have turned from negative to positive, but the current situation is very different from five years ago. In 2020, although the RMB exchange rate has appreciated by a large margin, the difference in foreign exchange settlement and sales for the whole year has not shown the scale of hundreds of billions of dollars in the past. Zhao Qingming told CBN reporters that this is because the market’s expectations for the RMB exchange rate have diverged. Some people are bullish and some are bearish.

Since the exchange rate reform in August 2015, the RMB exchange rate has formedmechanismMore and more market-oriented, the central bank gradually withdrawsForeign exchange marketIntervention, the period of unilateral appreciation or devaluation of the RMB exchange rate has gone forever, and the market has continuously adapted to this change, as can be seen from the bank’s foreign exchange settlement and sales data.

Especially in the last two years, in the first four months of 2019, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued to appreciate, and the appreciation rate was nearly 2% in the four months.But in August, affected by the results of Sino-US economic and trade negotiations, market sentiment was rapid.Reverse, Fell below the “7” mark for the first time in ten years. However, there is no expectation of unilateral depreciation in the market, and the bank’s foreign exchange settlement and sales deficit has not reproduced the scale of 2015 and 2016, and there have been surpluses for several months.

In 2020, from the beginning of the year to June, the RMB depreciation rate will be about 2.8%, and the appreciation rate will be as high as 9.4% in the second half of the year, and the fluctuation range will be larger and larger.Judging from the foreign exchange settlement and sales of banks in each month of 2020, in the first half of 2002, even in RMBExchange rate depreciationUnder the circumstances, banks maintained a small surplus in foreign exchange settlement and sales from January to June; RMB appreciated sharply in the second half of the year, but there was still a small deficit in foreign exchange settlement and sales in July and August, and there was also a small surplus from September to November.

Zhao Qingming said that considering various factors, it is expected that my country’s foreign exchange revenue and expenditure will remain balanced in the future, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves will also remain stable. For companies and individuals, they can no longer bet on unilateral exchange rates. They must learn to do a good job in risk management. At present, many companies are indeed changing, but they need to be further improved compared with Europe and Japan.

(Article source: China Business News)

(Editor in charge: DF398)